Texans’ AFC South Odds Improve to -500 After Beating Titans in Week 15

• The Houston Texans are now -500 favorites to win the AFC South Division title
• Houston won 24-21 on the road at Tennessee in Week 15 to take a one-game lead
• The Texans have won three of the last four AFC South crowns

When it comes to the Houston Texans and the AFC South Division, Sunday proved that the oddsmakers and the sharps knew what they were talking about.

The Tennessee Titans and Texans both came into Sunday’s showdown for the division lead with identical 8-5 records. The Titans had won six of seven. Houston had just been stunned 38-24 at home by the lowly Denver Broncos.

Still, on average across the leading sportsbooks, the Texans remained the -155 chalk to win the division title. At some books, more money was wagered last week by sharps on Houston (17 percent) than any other team.

In the end, the Texans justified that faith, winning outright 24-21 over the Titans as three-point road underdogs. Houston is in even more control of its fate now, and that’s again being reflected in the NFL divisional odds.

The Texans are -500 favorites to be AFC South champions.

2019 AFC South Odds

Odds taken on Dec. 16

Houston has won three of the past four division titles, and five of eight since 2011.

Deep in the Heart of Texans

Houston was sitting pretty entering Sunday’s game at Tennessee. Today, the Texans are a beacon of beautiful light.

Houston holds a one-game lead over the Titans with two games to play. The Texans own an edge over Tennessee in all key tiebreakers.

#KHOU11 #Texans owner Janice McNair greets players after today’s 24-21 win over #Titans pic.twitter.com/3UI9UbNIpR

— Matt Musil (@MattMusilSports) December 15, 2019

They are 1-0 in head-to-head meetings. Houston is better than Tennessee in divisional (4-1 to 2-3) and conference records (8-3 to 6-5).

If Houston wins this week at Tampa Bay, the Texans will carry a one-game advantage in the first three tiebreakers when they play host to the Titans during the final week of the NFL regular season.

Titans Take a Tumble

Tennessee has gone the longest since winning the division title. The Titans last captured the AFC South in 2008.

Rolling along 6-1 since coach Mike Vrabel replaced Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, it looked like this might be Tennessee’s year. But with it all on the line at home on Sunday, Tennessee failed to deliver the goods.

Tennessee’s best hope for a playoff spot now looks to be the second AFC Wild Card. Both the Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-6. Pittsburgh currently holds the tiebreaker. The Steelers are 6-4 in the conference, a half-game better than the Titans.

A.J. Brown’s been balling.@ryantannehill1 ➡️ @Brown1arthur and the @Titans even the score 14-14! #Titans #HOUvsTEN

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Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/ALWDCpltog pic.twitter.com/04HiEdkCgR

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2019

The Steelers have an easier ride home. They face the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens. There’s a good chance the Ravens may have home-field clinched before that game and might rest some starters.

Tennessee closes with the NFC South-leading New Orleans Saints and at Houston. It’s going to be tough for the Titans to win both of those games.

AFC South Belongs to Texans

Houston is 100-percent in control of its destiny. The Texans don’t even have to win out to win the division. A 1-1 slate will be good enough to get the job done. Tampa Bay won’t be a soft touch. The Buccaneers have won four in a row and five of six.

84-YARD INT‼️@Merci380 | #HOUvsTEN pic.twitter.com/nqyVYwBl0D

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 15, 2019

Still, the only team at this point that can cost the Texans the division title is the Texans.

If Tennessee wins out and Houston goes 1-1, the Texans still win every tiebreaker. The only way the Texans can blow the AFC South title is to go 0-2. And even at that, the Titans still must go 2-0 to pip the Texans at the post.

Pick: Houston Texans (-500)