Vikings vs Bills Props – Can Justin Jefferson Shred Buffalo’s Depleted Secondary?
- Player props are available for the Vikings vs Bills Week 10 matchup
- Get the odds for Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs and the rest of the playmakers on each roster
- A look at some of the Vikings vs Bills player props can be found below with predictions
Talk about the Josh Allen effect.
A top candidate in the 2023 NFL MVP odds, Allen is dealing with an injured ligament on his throwing elbow, and his status for Sunday against the 7-1 Minnesota Vikings is still uncertain.
Not only did Allen’s unknown availability drastically shorten the game line, oddsmakers waited almost a full day past normal prop bet posting to share their over/unders for this Week 10 matchup.
The result? A more sparse set of wagers, as the dropoff from Allen to backup Case Keenum is … substantial.
Still, we’re coming off a sweet 3-1 mark the last week, courtesy the frisky Seattle Seahawks, and we’re ready to do more damage.
Let’s take a look at this game’s NFL player props and share a few of our favorite picks.
Vikings vs Bills Player Props
| Passer | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins (MIN) | 21.5 (O -115) | U -115) | 241.5 (O -115) | U -115) | 1.5 (O +100 | U -135) |
| Rusher | Longest Rush | Rushing Yards | Rush + Rec Yards |
| Dalvin Cook (MIN) | 16.5 (O -115) | U -115) | 68.5 (O -120 | U -115) | 89.5 (O -115) | U -115) |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | 13.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 49.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 67.5 (O -115) | U -115) |
| Kirk Cousins (MIN) | OFF | 4.5 (O -115) | U -115) | OFF |
| Receiver | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
| Adam Thielen (MIN) | OFF | 47.5 (O -105 | U -125) | 19.5 (O -110 | U -120) |
| Dalvin Cook (MIN) | 2.5 (O -125 | U -105) | 15.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 9.5 (O -120 | U -110) |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | OFF | 31.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 16.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | OFF | 14.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 9.5 (O -105 | U -125) |
| Gabriel Davis (BUF) | OFF | 45.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 21.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) | OFF | 21.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 13.5 (O -110 | U -120) |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 6.5 (O +115 | U -155) | 82.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 26.5 (O -120 | U -110) |
| K.J. Osborn (MIN) | OFF | 20.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 12.5 (O -110 | U -120) |
| Stefon Diggs (BUF) | OFF | 79.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 26.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| TJ Hockenson (MIN) | OFF | 38.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 16.5 (O -120 | U -110) |
Odds as of November 12 at DraftKings Sportsbook
In the odds above, Kirk Cousins is favored to throw for less than two touchdowns. The highest rushing total goes to Dalvin Cook at 68.5 yards, and the highest receiving total is given to Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson at 82.5 yards.
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Prop #1: Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
While the Buffalo pass defense allows just 194.8 yards per game — seventh in the NFL — they have allowed an opposition receiver to cross this total five times in their eight games.
The cross section includes superstars like Cooper Kupp and Jaylen Waddle, rookies George Pickens and Garrett Wilson and veteran Juju Smith-Schuster.
He may look covered. But Justin Jefferson never is.
📺: #MINvsWAS on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/rhDoPc9SFW pic.twitter.com/j3Q7GMUINJ— NFL (@NFL) November 6, 2022
File Jefferson into the elite crowd. He’s crossed this total six times in eight Vikings games and has at least 98 yards receiving in five straight, including last week against the Commanders, hauling in seven balls for 115 yards and a touchdown.
This is also not Buffalo’s A-team on defense, particularly in the secondary. While Tre’Davious White could make his way back into the lineup, the Bills will be down both starting safeties in Jordan Poyer (elbow) and Micah Hyde (neck). Rookie corner Kaiir Elam (ankle) and defensive end Greg Rousseau (ankle) are also out.
While I like Jefferson getting plus odds for receptions at 6.5, we’ll stick the yards mark, as he should be featured early and often in this one.
Picks:
- Jefferson OVER 82.5 receiving yards (-115); 1 unit to win 0.87 units
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Prop #2: Kirk Cousins TD Passes and Rushing Yards
Sticking with the theme of the Bills’ defense not at full strength, the player who stands to benefit most is quarterback Kirk Cousins. Buffalo has allowed just eight TD passes all year and only two players — Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers — have hit two TD passes in a game.
Cousins has thrown for at least two TD scores in five games this season, and has done it in three straight times in wins over the Commanders, Cardinals and Dolphins.
Kirk “I’m faster than you” Cousins with the 17 yard TD run! Vikings up 7-0! #Skol pic.twitter.com/B98pSjr1iD
— 3rd and Forever (@3rd_forever10k) October 30, 2022
Looking for just a little more juice? Let me interest you in another low QB rush total, which are a personal favorite of mine. Consider that Buffalo has allowed the last five quarterbacks they’ve played to rush for at least five yards.
The Bills have also been susceptible to the run in the last three weeks, allowing the 6th-most rushing yards in the league.
Cousins has only crossed this total twice this season, but we’re going to live a little on this one.
Picks:
- Cousins OVER 1.5 TD passes (+100); 1 unit to win 1 unit
- Cousins OVER 4.5 rushing yards (-115); 1 unit to win 0.87 units
Vikings vs Bills Scoring Props
| Player | Odds to Score 1st TD | Odds to Score Any TD |
|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook (MIN) | +550 | -115 |
| Stefon Diggs (BUF) | +600 | +105 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | +700 | +115 |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | +650 | +120 |
| Gabriel Davis (BUF) | +750 | +145 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +900 | +165 |
| Adam Thielen (MIN) | +1100 | +200 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | +1200 | +200 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | +1100 | +215 |
| Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) | +1500 | +290 |
| K.J. Osborn (MIN) | +1700 | +310 |
Vikings vs Bills Touchdown Scorer Odds
The favorites are the favorites for a reason. Dalvin Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Vikings’ last four games. For the Bills, Stefon Diggs has scored at least once in each of the last four home games.
Devin Singletary has scored two touchdowns in three of Buffalo’s last six home games. That’s not great, but he could be featured far more Sunday if Allen can’t play.
Pick:
- Pick: Singletary ANYTIME TD scorer (+120); 1 unit to win 1.2 units
- Week 10 Record: 3-1; Overall Record: 13-16, -2.66 units
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
