NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread – Browns Keep Winning Without Odell
- Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, November 14th
- Our best bets last week were 2-1 (2021 season: 9-18, -11.3 units)
- Read below for analysis on the Week 10 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks
Week 10 on the NFL calendar continues on Sunday (Nov. 14th), with 12 more games. For the second straight week, we posted a 2-1 mark in our picks against the spread column, and we’ll be counting on a trio of underdogs on Sunday to help us extend our mini winning streak.
Week 10 ATS Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets | BUF (-11) | BUF (-11) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Football Team | TB (-9.5) | WAS (+9.5) |
| Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys | DAL (-8) | DAL (-8) |
| New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans | TEN (-2.5) | NO (+2.5) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts | IND (-10) | IND (-10) |
| Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT (-8) | DET (+8) |
| Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots | NE (-2.5) | CLE (+2.5) |
| Minnesota Vikings vs LA Chargers | LAC (-3) | MIN (+3) |
| Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals | ARZ (-10.5) | CAR (+10.5) |
| Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos | DEN (-2.5) | DEN (-2.5) |
| Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers | GB (-3) | SEA (+3) |
| Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders | KC (-2.5) | LV (+2.5) |
Odds as of Nov. 11th at DraftKings.
Our betting card starts in New England, where Cleveland will be aiming to rack up another victory without Odell Beckham Jr.
Browns vs Patriots Pick Against the Spread
The Browns are currently 2.5-point underdogs, the same spread they faced last week in Cincinnati. Cleveland cruised to a 41-16 victory in that outing, and will be eyeing another upset here.
The Browns boast a sizeable advantage in terms of DVOA ranking (6th vs 13th), and are well equipped to limit what the Patriots do best, which is run the football. Cleveland ranks sixth in rush defense DVOA, and boast an elite pass rush unit when New England does throw.
Myles Garrett leads the league in sacks. The Browns lead the league in pass rush win rate at 55% (ESPN). After struggling to force turnovers they had 3 on Sunday. They are 10th in opponents PPG (ESPN). This defense is finally rounding into form at the right time #Browns pic.twitter.com/NhMIWNl7zF
— Jacob Roach (@roachizm13) November 10, 2021
They rank second in pressure rate and third in adjusted sack rate, which spells trouble for Mac Jones. The rookie is completing just 56% of his throws under duress, and has thrown the third most turnover worthy passes in the NFL under pressure.
On the other side of the ball, Nick Chubb is likely to miss due to COVID, but how big a loss will that really be? D’Ernest Johnson looked great three weeks ago with Chubb out, rushing for 146 yards and a score.
Pick: Cleveland Browns +2.5 (-110), 1 unit.
Panthers vs Cardinals Pick Against the Spread
Our next target is Carolina, getting 10.5 points in Arizona. The status of Kyler Murray is still up in the air thanks to his injured ankle, but while the line suggests he plays, he still hasn’t practiced in over two weeks as of Thursday night.
Good news: The #AZCardinals activated WR AJ Green from the COVID-19 list.
Not as good news: QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins were not spotted by local reporters during today’s practice. Neither was WR Rondale Moore.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 11, 2021
Murray isn’t the only Cardinal banged up, as his number one target DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) is in danger of missing his second straight game, while fellow receiver Rondale Moore is in the concussion protocol. Even if Murray plays, he’ll likely be limited, while the Panthers defense is no joke. Carolina ranks sixth in defensive DVOA and fourth in pass rush win rate.
On the other side of the ball, Sam Darnold is out due to injury, but how big a drop-off will P.J. Walker really be? Darnold has thrown eight interceptions in his past six games, failing to post a QBR above 59.5.
Christian McCaffrey is BACK❗️
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/2qGPU2wc9e
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 7, 2021
Christian McCaffrey’s usage should increase in his second game back, and his matchup is pristine. The Cardinals are allowing the second most yards per carry in the NFL, and rank 30th in run stop win rate.
Pick: Carolina Panthers (+10.5), 1 unit.
Chiefs vs Raiders Pick Against the Spread
Our final selection is the Las Vegas Raiders catching 2.5-points at home versus the Kansas City Chiefs. KC has covered just four of its past 20 regular season games, and look broken on offense.
Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy, what he tells his guys when things aren't going well: "Let's line up and play the opponent because the Chiefs are kicking the Chiefs' ass."
— Blair Kerkhoff (@BlairKerkhoff) November 11, 2021
The Chiefs are averaging just 12 points a game over the past three weeks, and are fresh off gaining just 3.8 yards per play versus Green Bay.
The Las Vegas defense has been solid all season, ranking first in pass rush productivity and fourth in coverage per Pro Football Focus.
The only players with 40+ pressures this season:
☠️ Maxx Crosby – 47
🔸 Myles Garrett – 44
⚔️ Harold Landry III – 43
🐅 Trey Hendrickson – 41
🏴☠️ Shaquil Barrett – 40 pic.twitter.com/YvxsRld8OK— PFF (@PFF) November 7, 2021
Turnovers kept the Raiders from their third straight victory in Week 9, but that shouldn’t be an issue versus KC. The Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush productivity, and 30th in run defense, and force turnovers at a below league average rate.
Since Jon Gruden’s departure, Las Vegas is averaging the third most yards per game (423), clearing 32 points in two of three outings.
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 (-110), 1 unit.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
