Week 13 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, December 5

• NFL player props for Week 13 are now available at online sportsbooks
• Joe Burrow has completed fewer than 23 passes in seven of 11 starts this season
• See all the NFL props listed and where we think the betting value lies

Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season continues on Sunday (Dec. 5th) with 12 more games. Player props are live for all the biggest names on the slate, with many of those wagers offering serious value.

We’ve narrowed down our list to a handful of player props worth targeting, which you’ll find broken into sections below. The action starts at the quarterback position, where once again Tom Brady boasts the highest passing totals.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

All props as of December 4.

Brady is the only QB with a passing yards prop north of 300, while he and Matthew Stafford are the lone signal-callers with a TD prop over 1.5.

The New York Giants Mike Glennon, who’s starting in place of the injured Daniel Jones, is the QB oddsmakers’ are most bearish on. Glennon’s yardage prop is 8 yards lower than anyone else’s, and he’s the only pivot who’s TD prop is below 1.

Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 13

1) Joe Burrow UNDER 22.5 Completions (+100); risk 1 unit

Our betting card starts in Cincy, where we’re looking to find a fade on Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game. Over the past three outings, Cincinnati has run the ball at the league’s seventh highest rate. Bengals’ head coach Zac Taylor has been electing to pound the ball instead of letting Burrow sling it, and there’s little reason to believe that will change against the LA Chargers.

Whatever it takes, @JoeyB 😤

📺: Watch on CBS pic.twitter.com/6axjMiv5Kk

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) November 28, 2021

Burrow has failed to eclipse 23 completions in three of his past four starts, and in seven of his 11 outings this season. The Chargers have yielded the fifth fewest passing yards in the league, in large part due to head coach Brandon Staley’s defensive philosophy. Staley is well aware that passing leads to more expected points than running, so his defenses are predicated on inviting the opposing offense to run the ball.

https://twitter.com/AJDraftScout/status/1463719678572908544

That has resulted in the Chargers allowing the fourth most production to enemy running backs, while facing the second lowest pass percentage from opposing QB’s.

Burrow’s teammate Joe Mixon has been on fire lately, earning an average of 23.6 carries per game over his past three contests, while scoring six touchdowns. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Expect the Bengals to once again lean heavily on Mixon versus LA’s soft run defense, forcing Burrow to take a backseat.

NFL Rushing Props

Much like Brady, Jonathan Taylor is expected to lead the Sunday slate in rushing for a second straight week. Taylor’s rushing yards prop is 18 yards higher than anyone else’s, while the New York Jets Tevin Coleman is the only runner listed with a prop below 40 yards.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 13

1) Lamar Jackson UNDER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115); risk 1 unit

While the over on Taylor’s rushing yards is enticing considering his matchup against Houston, the league’s seventh worst rush defense per DVOA, let’s target another under instead.

Lamar Jackson checks in with a rushing yards prop of 66.5, a number he’s cleared in just one of four appearances versus Sunday’s opponent Pittsburgh.

Jackson is averaging only 4.15 yards per carry in his meetings versus the Steelers, which is nearly 2 yards fewer than his career average. He’s also lost five fumbles in those matchups, and you can bet Pittsburgh will sell out to stop him as a rusher.

Is Lamar Jackson playing w his eyes closed? These picks border on bizarre. Not even close to the target. Strange.

— Colin Cowherd (@ColinCowherd) November 29, 2021

That’s especially true given Lamar’s passing struggles as of late. He threw 4 interceptions last time out versus Cleveland, and has been picked off nine times in his past five starts. He has a lower passer rating versus the Steelers than any other team in the NFL, throwing 5 interceptions on just 57 career attempts.

NFL Receiving Props

As far as receivers go, it’s Cooper Kupp and then it’s everyone else. Kupp is the only receiver with a yardage prop above 90, and along with Justin Jefferson are the only wideouts with a prop north of 80. On the flip side, Josh Reynolds, Kupp’s former teammate, has the lowest yardage prop among wide receivers at 35.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 13

1) Kenny Golladay OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115); risk 1 unit

After the Giants’ Week 11 loss to the Buccaneers, head coach Joe Judge reportedly told Kenny Golladay they’re going to start feeding him the ball. That’s exactly what happened a week later as Golladay earned a team-high 23.3% target share.

Joe Judge had a message for Kenny Golladay on Monday's flight home from Tampa…. #PHIvsNYG pic.twitter.com/CPERfJEBYD

— Kim Jones (@KimJonesSports) November 28, 2021

Now, New York heads to Miami as a big underdog, missing its top-two leading receivers in Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney. The Giants have no choice but to funnel more targets to Kenny G. Sure the matchup isn’t pretty, but game script will likely dictate a pass heavy approach.

On top of Daniel Jones being out Sunday …

It doesn’t look promising for WR Sterling Shepard (quad). WR Kadarius Toney (quad/oblique) will be out.

Also starting RT Nate Solder was not at practice.

— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) December 3, 2021

As for the QB situation, is Glennon really that much of a downgrade from Daniel Jones? They have a nearly identical completion percentage this season, and Glennon looked surprisingly competent when filling in against the Cowboys in Week 5. Glennon’s average yards per attempt is a full yard further than Jones’, and he’s been known to play ultra aggressive, even bordering on reckless.

Golladay can exceed this prop on one catch given his big play upside, and should have plenty of opportunities as New York tries to play catch up.

Touchdown Props

Taylor also has the shortest odds to score a touchdown in Week 13 by a wide margin, with Kupp second in line. The duo also owns the shortest and second shortest 1st TD odds in their respective games, followed by Alexander Mattison.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Week 13

Here’s who to target to find the end zone and why:

1. Mike Evans anytime touchdown (-105): Since Week 5, Evans leads the league in receiving touchdowns and has scored in four of his past five games. Tampa Bay leads the league in pass rate over expectation and has the biggest implied team total on the slate. The last time Evans squared off against the Falcons he found the end zone twice. (0.5 units)
2. Elijah Mitchell anytime touchdown (-125): Find someone who loves you as much as Kyle Shanahan loves Eli Mitchell. Despite playing with a broken finger last week, Mitchell still touched the ball 33 times. He’s scored in every game but one where he’s earned at least 18 carries, and he should have ample opportunity to find paydirt versus a Seahawks team that allows the most plays per game. (0.5 units)
3. Miles Sanders anytime touchdown (+125): The Eagles are averaging over 40 rushing attempts per game over their last three contests and will likely want to limit Gardner Minshew’s passing attempts if Jalen Hurts sits. Sanders was on his way to a huge game last week before leaving with an ankle injury, but he isn’t even on the final injury report this week. The matchup is about as good as it gets, as the New York Jets rank 32nd in defensive DVOA, and 30th against the run. (0.5 units)