Week 15 NFL Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Sunday, December 20

• We have many more props available for Sunday of Week 15, thanks to 12 games on the schedule
• Two rookie receivers are set up in great spots to succeed on Sunday
• Have a look at all the player props available for Week 14 and get our best bets below

The prop gods were not kind to us last week. Deshaun Watson came up inches shy of cashing his anytime touchdown at +275, Dion Lewis stole Wayne Gallman’s touchdown this time, and Noah Fant played five snaps before leaving the game with an illness – Denver’s backup tight ends Nick Vannett and Troy Fumagalli combined for eight catches, 73 yards, and a touchdown.

Fortunately, we cashed on most of the bigger bets we made, ending up -2.13 units for the day. If you want to continue releasing any frustrations, hit me up on Twitter @SBD_Matt. Misery loves company, right?

For now, let’s move on to Week 15, where we have another 12 games to pick apart. I am targeting two rookie wide receivers in great spots this week, and one running back who is going to break out of a recent slump. But first, you’ll find all the passing, rushing, and receiving props available in the table below, and then the touchdown props below that.

Week 15 NFL Player Props

Odds as of December 19

Justin Jefferson Has Another Big Game Against the Bears

Justin Jefferson is coming off one of the worst starts of his young career, only posting four catches for 39 yards against a very good Bucs defense in Week 14. He faces another tough defense this Sunday when his Vikings take on the Bears.

Chicago’s defense didn’t look too good back in Week 10, though, as Jefferson hung eight catches for 135 yards on them. The Vikings rookie receiver was completely unfazed by the Bears’ physicality and was consistently getting open all night.

But that’s not really anything new for Jefferson. He’s averaging 82.9 receiving yards per game this season, and that number climbs to 91.6 in games he has started. He’s gone over 64.5 yards in seven of 11 starts this season, with one of those unders only falling a yard short. Prior to Week 14, Jefferson had eclipsed this total in four straight.

With Adam Thielen on the other side, and Dalvin Cook in the backfield, it’s going to be hard for Chicago to scheme for Jefferson. He may not put up as big of a number as last time, but I love the rookie to go over 64.5.

Pick: Justin Jefferson over 64.5 (-118) – 1 unit

Brandon Aiyuk Shines in Week 15

Brandon Aiyuk has been enjoying a pretty nice rookie season. It hasn’t been as good as the previous rookie wide receiver we discussed, but still good. Aiyuk is averaging five receptions and 66 receiving yards per game through ten games.

If you’re just looking at his averages, and the fact that he has a nice matchup against a Cowboys defense who’s allowing 6.5 net yards per reception (19th), his lines make sense – 5.5 receptions and 74.5 receiving yards.

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk's last five games:
* 10 rec, 119 yards
* 5 rec, 95 yards, TD
* 7 rec, 75 yards, TD
* 8 rec, 91 yards, TD
* 6 rec, 101 yards

Since Week 9, he is one of three WR averaging 95 yards per game along with Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 17, 2020

The problem with that is Aiyuk has clearly turned a corner. The rookie is averaging 11.2 targets per game in his last five, turning them into 7.2 receptions and 99 yards per game. Add in the fact that San Francisco will be without Deebo Samuel, who left last week’s game with a hamstring injury, and Aiyuk is set up to get fed.

With Dallas’ defense being horrible against the run, I certainly don’t foresee another 16-target game for Aiyuk. But he will see a large portion of Nick Mullen’s attempts, and I love the Arizona State product to go over both his receptions total and receiving yards total. I don’t love the value on the receptions over, though, at -165. So I’m sticking with just the receiving yards.

Pick: Brandon Aiyuk over 74.5 receiving yards (-112) – 1 unit

Alvin Kamara Gets Back on Track with Brees Under Center

In the first seven games of the 2020 season, Alvin Kamara was averaging 141 yards from scrimmage per game. He had surpassed 105.5 yards from scrimmage in six of those seven games, with the lone exception coming in Week 1. Kamara only averaged 72.1 yards from scrimmage pert game with Taysom Hill under center, largely due to his receiving yards dipping to an average of 12.8 per game.

This is significant because it’s the only one of those seven games where Michael Thomas suited up. Looking to the games the Saints have played without Thomas this season, Kamara is averaging 153.4 yards from scrimmage. New Orleans will be without Thomas again in Week 15 as they take on the Chiefs, in what is expected to be a high-scoring game – the total is set at 52.5.

Alvin Kamara PPR points per game:

🔹 w/ Drew Brees – 27.4
🔸 w/ Taysom Hill – 14.2 pic.twitter.com/Qzpd8rLy5J

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) December 18, 2020

It’ll also be Drew Brees’ first game back under center since breaking ribs against San Francisco in Week 10. Sean Payton is going to find some easy throws for his veteran quarterback early, and the Chiefs defense has not been very good against running backs in the passing game.

Kansas City is allowing 47.9 receiving yards per game to RBs, per Pro Football Reference, the third-most in the league. Kamara is arguably the best receiving back in the game, and I’m betting on him to be the focal point of the Saints’ offense again this Sunday.

Pick: Alvin Kamara over 105.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112) – 1.5 units

Odds to Score a Touchdown in Week 15

Picks to Score a Touchdown in Week 15

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

1. Brandon Aiyuk anytime touchdown (+140): I already boasted about the spot Aiyuk is in this week, but didn’t mention that he’s scored a touchdown in six of ten games this season, and four of the last six. These odds are a gift. (1 unit)
2. JK Dobbins anytime touchdown (+120): Dobbins is finally breaking out, seeing double digit carries in five of the last six, and averaging 11.8 per game in that span. He’s scored a touchdown in each of his last three and the Jaguars have given up 16 rushing touchdowns this season. (1 unit)
3. Gus Edwards anytime touchdown (+200): The Ravens are 12.5-point favorites in Week 15, meaning there’s a good chance they are playing with a lead for most of this game. Even though Dobbins is starting to take the lead in the backfield, there’s room for multiple backs in Baltimore’s offense. Edwards has scored in five of his last eight games. (0.5 units)
4. Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+130): Evans has 11 touchdowns in 13 games this season, finding the endzone at least once in nine of those games. He should not be getting plus odds against a Falcons defense who has given up 26 touchdowns through the air this year. (0.5 units)
5. David Montgomery anytime touchdown (+135): It’s important to consider who Montgomery has faced over the last three games as he’s been posting huge numbers – all bad run defenses. But Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been great this season, either. They rank 22nd in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed. The Bears will find their way into the red zone and they don’t like trusting Trubisky to put it in the air down there. (0.5 units)