Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions

• The Maple Leafs look to go up 3-1 in their series against the Lightning on Monday, April 24th
• Tampa was a perfect 4-0 at home after a loss in their playoff run last season
• Check out the Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 odds below, plus our best bet and prediction

Sometimes, your goalie steals a game that your team didn’t deserve to win. That’s exactly what happened in Game 3 for the Maple Leafs after Ilya Samsonov stood on his head, allowing Toronto to come back for a 4-3 overtime victory on the road against the Lightning.

On Monday, April 24th, these squads are right back at it for Game 4 from Amalie Arena with the puck drop scheduled for 7:30 pm ET. Viewers can watch this one on Bally Sports Sun, TBS, CBC and Sportsnet with the Leafs looking to put a stranglehold on a Lightning side that’s gone to the last three Stanley Cup Finals.

Below, you can find the Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 odds as well as the latest news. Plus, we’ll offer up our best bet and pick for this contest.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Odds

Without a doubt, Tampa carried the play in Game 3 at home, but it’s the Maple Leafs who are -125 moneyline favorites to bring a 3-1 series lead back home to Toronto.

If there’s one consistent trend that’s been easy to spot in meetings between these two, it’s their propensity for hitting the over. They’ve exceeded the goal total in each game this series and 10 of their last 12 head-to-head’s overall including the regular season. It’s food for thought with the over pegged at 6.5 goals in the NHL odds.

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Odds as of April 23rd at Caesars Sportsbook.

Goals Keep Coming in Maple Leafs vs Lightning Series

Nobody would question the status of Andrei Vasilevskiy as one of the game’s best goaltenders. He’s a perennial contender in the Vezina Trophy odds, but with a rather large sample at this point, you can’t argue the fact that the Leafs have his number.

They have faced each other 10 times in the postseason over the last two years, and the Leafs have put at least three pucks past him nine of those affairs. The only time they didn’t was the do-or-die Game 7 last season, where the Russian netminder stoned Toronto, propelling his side to a 2-1 victory.

Samsonov vs Vasilevskiy Series’ Stats

As you can see in the table above, this has not been a goaltender’s series, although the Leafs can thank their lucky stars for the play of their own Russian netminder in Game 3.

Time and time again, Samsonov stoned Tampa’s shooters making 36 of 39 stops and ensuring he wouldn’t allow the Lightning to go up two when they were pouring on the pressure.

Despite putting up spectacular regular season numbers, many feel that with Samsonov as the starter, goaltending is the biggest question mark for the Maple Leafs. With a legitimate number one in net, they would likely challenge Boston as the top contender in the Stanley Cup odds.

Early Public Betting Trends Favor Lightning

Dealing with many more injuries than their counterparts, the Bolts somehow rallied to dominate the Maple Leafs in Game 3, even though the final score didn’t reflect what occurred on the ice.

Hedman: "Happy with the way we played, but at the same time, we can't hang our hat on that. We've got to go out and execute and do the same thing next game and expect obviously a different outcome. It's a big game for us tomorrow."#TORvsTBL

— x – Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) April 23, 2023

You don’t become champions by accident, and this Lightning team has shown in this series that regardless of what roster they can ice, the Leafs better buckle up for a war. Bettors don’t see Tampa losing two in a row at home, as the moneyline splits show 60% of the bets are on Tampa in the NHL public betting trends.

Although these teams have averaged 8.7 goals per game so far in this series, 87% of the public bets are on under 6.5 goals.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction

For the past three years, Tampa has almost always come up big when their backs were against the wall. If they don’t even this series in Game 4, it will be a huge hill to climb to advance to the next round in the NHL Playoff Bracket.

Answer. The. Call. ⚡️@TitusONeilWWE | #GoBolts pic.twitter.com/5DjCxOKQqg

— x – Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) April 24, 2023

The temperature of this series was raised significantly last game, so it will be interesting to see how the officials handle Game 4. For the first time in the series, neither team capitalized on the man advantage last game.

At some point, you’d think there will be a very low-scoring, tight contest between these two, but game in and game out, the goals keep coming. They have hit the over in 80% of their playoff meetings against each other. Our prediction is to roll with the trend and pick the over once again in the Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds.

Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-105)