Sabres, Coyotes (+2000) Have Better Stanley Cup Odds than Flames, Sharks (+2500)
- Upstart Buffalo leads the Atlantic, while Arizona had a great start in the Pacific
- The Stanley Cup odds have them ahead of a handful of 2018/19 playoff teams
- Is there futures value in betting on teams that are off to surprisingly hot starts?
In a division with the Lightning, Bruins and Maple Leafs, it’s the Buffalo Sabres that sit atop the Atlantic.
While the Metropolitan and Central divisions are playing out according to plan, the Pacific is a bit of a surprise too. Entering Tuesday, the Anaheim Ducks were second, and the Arizona Coyotes are carrying over last year’s late momentum.
After missing out on the playoffs in 2018/19, could these two early surprises have long-term value?
2019/20 Stanley Cup Odds
| Team | Record | Points | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 4-3-1 | 9 | +800 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 7-4-0 | 14 | +900 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 7-1-1 | 15 | +1000 |
| Boston Bruins | 6-1-2 | 14 | +1200 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 5-3-2 | 12 | +1400 |
| Washington Capitals | 7-2-2 | 16 | +1400 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 8-1-1 | 17 | +1600 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 5-2-1 | 11 | +2000 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 6-3-0 | 12 | +2000 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 7-2-1 | 15 | +2000 |
| Nashville Predators | 5-3-1 | 11 | +2000 |
| New York Islanders | 5-3-0 | 10 | +2000 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 6-4-0 | 12 | +2000 |
| St. Louis Blues | 4-2-3 | 11 | +2000 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 5-6-0 | 10 | +2000 |
| Calgary Flames | 5-5-1 | 11 | +2500 |
| Florida Panthers | 4-2-3 | 11 | +2500 |
| San Jose Sharks | 3-5-1 | 7 | +2500 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 6-4-0 | 12 | +3300 |
| Dallas Stars | 3-7-1 | 7 | +3300 |
Odds taken Oct. 22.
Buffalo Sabres Off to Familiar Start
The last time we looked at the Stanley Cup odds, we identified the Penguins and Capitals as having hidden value. And we still stand by that.
Score the overtime winner ☑️
Say hi to mom ☑️ #Sabres50 | @Jackeichel15 pic.twitter.com/OprPxH4cZ5
— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) October 23, 2019
Buffalo has been all over the place early. The tracker had them at +10000 at the beginning of September. After plenty of peaks and valleys, their average odds are now at +4200. And that’s in spite of the fact they’re a division leader.
But sportsbooks are asking the same question we are: can we trust the Buffalo Sabres?
Buffalo Sabres’ Starts: 2018/19 vs 2019/20
| 27 | Games Played | 10 |
| 17-7-3 | Record | 8-1-1 |
| 82 | Goals For | 38 |
| 76 | Goals Against | 24 |
| 19.5% | Power Play % | 30.8% |
| 80.2% | Penalty Kill % | 76.7% |
If the Sabres’ hot start seems familiar, it should. They did the exact same thing over the first two months last year. Before the calendar flipped to December, they were actually tied for top spot in the NHL with the Lightning.
Digging a little deeper, the analytics behind Buffalo aren’t that different than their season-long totals from last year.
The @BuffaloSabres improved to 5-0-0 at KeyBank Center to mark the fourth time in franchise history the club has won the first 5+ games at home: 6-0-0 in 1975-76; 5-0-0 in 1972-73; 5-0-0 in 1984-85. #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/NphUnoRBOl
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) October 23, 2019
According to NaturalStatTrick.com, the Sabres finished 13th in Corsi-For at 4,688. This year they’re 14th with 532. On a per-game basis, they’re actually worse with their total Corsi percentage, as it’s two points lower than last year.
In terms of scoring chances, the Sabres have actually generated fewer (24.3) than last year (25.9) on a per-game basis. They’re also slightly worse at limiting opposition scoring chances this year (26.5) than last (26).
Can Coyotes Compete in Stacked Pacific?
The Arizona Coyotes have a strong, young nucleus. Unfortunately for them, it’s a trait shared by a handful of teams in the Pacific Division.
One advantage they’ve had over the field so far though, is their defensive prowess. Led by Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Arizona’s defensive numbers compare favorably to the rest of the division.
Pacific Division Defensive Numbers
| Team | Games Played | Goals Against | Goal Differential | Scoring Chances Allowed | High Danger Chances Allowed | Fenwick % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | 10 | 24 | +7 | 294 | 106 | 46.13 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 10 | 22 | +2 | 259 | 82 | 48.91 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 11 | 28 | +8 | 285 | 102 | 50.76 |
| Calgary Flames | 11 | 32 | -3 | 305 | 103 | 49.43 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 9 | 19 | +11 | 265 | 95 | 52.27 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 8 | 15 | +9 | 204 | 75 | 50.14 |
| San Jose Sharks | 9 | 32 | -8 | 249 | 107 | 48.25 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 9 | 34 | -7 | 254 | 86 | 55.82 |
While it is important to remember that there’s a noticeable difference in games-played, the Coyotes’ numbers rate well regardless.
Looking at the division as a whole, it will be interesting to see how things shake out.
Final, Arizona 3, NY Rangers 2 (OT).
Goals: Crouse, Goligoski, Dvorak.
Darcy Kuemper (17 saves) allows two goals or fewer for a 13th straight game.
Arizona is 5-0-1 in its past 6 games.— Craig Morgan (@CraigSMorgan) October 23, 2019
The Oilers’ start specifically seems unsustainable. The Golden Knights averages would have them finishing well ahead of last year’s totals in scoring chances and high danger chances allowed, so are they could be regressing.
When you compare them to the rest of the division, the Coyotes truly stand out.
Goaltending Means it’s ‘Wait and See’ With Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres
Forced to choose between one or the other, the tandem in Arizona inspires more confidence.
But based on track records and small sample sizes throughout their careers, neither the Sabres or Coyotes are must-plays right now because of goaltending.
Comparing the divisions, Arizona’s upward climb is going to be easier than Buffalo fending off Toronto, Boston and Tampa Bay. This early in the season though, you want to make sure this is for real before you start laying money down.
It’s fair to be skeptical of the Sabres, but keep a close eye on the Coyotes.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
