Odds of USA Buying Greenland Set at 25-1; Over/Under for Price Set at $1 Trillion

• Donald Trump has been talking about the idea of buying Greenland
• Both Greenland and Denmark, which technically owns the island, has said it’s not up for sale
• A reasonable cost for Greenland would probably be about half a trillion dollars

There’s been an odd story in the news recently as US President Donald Trump has made mention of buying the island of Greenland. It’s odd because the story comes completely out of the blue (pun fully intended) and it doesn’t appear that Denmark – which owns Greenland – has put it up for sale.

Will Trump make a deal here or would there be too much red tape involved?

Odds United States Purchases Greenland

*Odds taken August 20, 2019. 

Will Trump Buy Greenland?

In one of the most bizarre stories of the year, President Trump has been reported to be thinking about buying Greenland but the question is where did this come from? Trump has even gone as far to state that Greenland is “hurting Denmark very badly” and that they “carry it at a great loss”.

Greenland has come out and said that they’re open for business, but are not for sale. Meanwhile, the Danes have been far more direct as Denmark’s Prime Minister stated clearly that the island is not for sale. He went further to say that it’s an absurd conversation to be having.

I would bet on the ‘No’ with this prop. Is it possible that a deal is in the works behind the scenes? Maybe, but the public discourse has indicated that both Denmark and Greenland want nothing to do with this deal.

Beyond that, they don’t strike me as countries that can be bought.

The juice is crazy-high on the ‘No’ but there’s a reason for that. This is not going to happen – especially within the timeline of two months.

Over/Under Price of Greenland (If Sold)

*Odds taken August 20, 2019. 

What’s Greenland Worth?

As the famous wrestler the Million Dollar Man once said: everybody’s got a price. Books clearly believe that price to be about $1 trillion. That’s an incredible sum of money but maybe that’s the going rate for the world’s largest island.

If I was betting on this, I’d bet the under, though.

Greenland is 536,000 square miles with 55,000 people living there. There’s virtually no infrastructure outside of Nuuk, which is the largest city. It also has no economy, so it’s not as if the United States is buying much else outside of the real estate and resources.

If the U.S. was actually pricing this out, they’d have to make a rough estimate of what the minerals and metals are worth on the island, which they could do from a similarly-sized state.

For example, some estimates suggest that Wyoming is worth $97 billion. Greenland is just over five times the size.

However, Wyoming also has a GDP of $38 billion, which is about $36 billion more than Greenland. That makes this estimate tough. If we set the GDP aside, Greenland should cost about five times as much, which would put it at about half a trillion. The under is the right play here.

Of course, anytime someone brings up a land purchase, the Louisiana Purchase springs to mind. The Jefferson administration bought 827,000 acres from France for $15 million back in 1803. It’s worked out pretty well for the United States, so maybe that’s why the topic has come up again.

However, the deals are not really similar in any way. Also, the deal isn’t going to happen, so it’s all a (very entertaining) moot point.