Trump’s 2020 Election Odds Show Modest Improvement, Still Trails Biden by 10 Points in Some Polls

• The most recent 2020 US election odds see President Donald Trump improving from +149 to +142
• Democratic challenger Joe Biden, while still favored, is fading slightly from -175 to -170.
• Should Biden be worried? Should Trump be gaining confidence?

They’re baby steps to be sure but it’s still unusual in recent months to see US President Donald Trump taking steps that bring him closer to Joe Biden in the 2020 election odds.

Trump did exactly that during the past week, though. The incumbent Republican saw an improvement from +149 to +142 to win a second term in the Oval Office.

Presumptive Democratic challenger Biden slipped a bit in the betting line. His odds faded from -175 to -170.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Odds as of Aug. 4th.

Biden has been favored to win the White House since June 3rd.

Don’t Count Trump Out

While all the numbers appear to be pointing toward a Biden landslide by the time the polls close on Nov. 3rd, there’s still a constituency that believes Trump can win. Amazingly, not all among this group are Trump supporters.

Maybe a vaccine for COVID-19 is miraculously discovered over the next month or two and the novel coronavirus is eradicated. Perhaps, against all odds and defying logic, the US economy suddenly rebounds sharply.

Okay, so these scenarios are unlikely to develop before the election cycle ends. But there’s one trick Trump always has up his sleeve.

.@jonathanvswan: "How do you think history will remember John Lewis?"

President Trump to #AxiosOnHBO: "I don't know…I don't know John Lewis. He chose not to come to my inauguration." pic.twitter.com/LDv76rrIFc

— Axios (@axios) August 4, 2020

He knows how to fight dirty, and he knows no shame.

Let’s not forget that 63 million Americans thought he was the best fit for the job in 2016. He still shows a solid 35% base who back him unwaveringly through every misstep he makes.

Trump is crass, dishonest, uncouth, and an international bully.

Evidently, though, those are appealing qualities to a significant portion of Americans.

Why It Won’t Last

The last time Trump showed an uptick in the odds, he quickly took care of it by opening his mouth and inserting his foot.

He’s at it again this week. Already, Trump has questioned the legacy of recently-deceased Congressman and civil rights leader John Lewis. He continues to rant against mail in ballots, which only seems to make more voters rush to buy stamps.

At a signing of the Great American Outdoors Act, President Trump stumbled over the word “Yosemite” in his prepared text, pronouncing it “Yo Semites” instead https://t.co/peSgJO0D6B pic.twitter.com/nPKzgjOyFv

— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 4, 2020

Trump continues to insist that the only reason why the US shows such horrific COVID-19 numbers is because they test too much. In truth, his handling – or lack of handling – of the pandemic sent his reelection plans into a death spiral.

The Trump campaign is in full panic mode. He demoted campaign manager Brad Parscale and they scuttled their multi-million-dollar ad campaign that was supposed to crush Biden.

Going to Plan B some 90 days before the voters make their call isn’t a strategy employed by people who are winning the race.

Biden Isn’t Hillary

Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was the perfect foil for someone like Trump. She was toxic in the eyes of millions of Americans. He could rant at his rallies about “Crooked Hillary” and get chants of “Lock Her Up” resonating off the walls at his rallies.

The Biden campaign plan can be summed up as: "more airtime for Trump." https://t.co/RFZpYB7QX8

— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 4, 2020

This time around, thanks to his disastrous dealing with COVID-19, Trump can’t even hold his rallies. On top of that, Biden isn’t Hillary. Trump hasn’t been able to label him with anything that sticks.

Based on the latest polling data, NPR is projecting a 297-170 Electoral College win for Biden. Unless a seismic event happens between now and November, Trump’s number is up.