Atalanta vs Napoli Odds & Prediction – Serie A Week 13
- Matchday 13 in Serie A features Atalanta vs Napoli on Saturday, November 5th at 1:00 pm ET
- Napoli are currently atop the Serie A table, five points ahead of Atalanta
- Get the Atalanta vs Napoli odds and prediction below
All eyes will be on the Serie A table this weekend, ahead of Atalanta vs Napoli. Of course, this is a clash between Italy’s top two clubs at the moment. Currently, Napoli leads the race for the Scudetto on 32 points, while Atalanta sits on 27.
The Partenopei have had a sensational year so far, winning 15 of 18 matches across all competitions. In fact, their first loss came just this week at the hands of Liverpool. Luciano Spalletti’s side was surprised by two late goals at Anfield on Tuesday, resulting in a 2-0 defeat. This marked only the second occasion this year where Napoli were kept off the score sheet.
Conversely, Atalanta have had an equally impressive start to their campaign in Italy. La Dea finished in eighth place last season, and are on pace to muster up nearly 85 points this season. Truly, I am not sure many pundits or experts were expecting them to be back in this position. Nonetheless, they enter this match with a slew of glaring injuries, which could hamper their chances.
Atalanta vs Napoli Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Atalanta | +240 |
| Napoli | +104 |
| Draw | +275 |
Odds as of November 4th from Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on this Serie A match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.
In turn, Napoli are the moneyline favorites with odds of +104. For me, this is stellar value for a team that has already bagged 30 goals this season. Atalanta’s moneyline odds of +240 are justified given their 3-2-1 home record to start the Serie A season. Napoli are also the favorites in the Serie A odds to win the title.
Atalanta vs Napoli Over/Under
Furthermore, goals are heavily expected in this match as the over on 2.5 total goals sits at -148. You can get more value at the 3.5 line, with the over having much better odds of +175. These odds represent an implied win probability of 36%. In reality, this play has hit in 50% of Napoli’s matches across all competitions.
🎩HAT-TRICK HERO🎩
WHAT A PERFORMANCE 🔥#NapoliSassuolo pic.twitter.com/2AWmFec11G
— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) October 29, 2022
Moreover, it has hit in their last four head-to-head matchups, with those games averaging 4.75 total goals. I would lean into this play on Saturday afternoon, especially off the back of a goose egg at Liverpool.
Atalanta vs Napoli Statistics
| 1.50 | Goals per game | 2.50 |
| 1.56 | Expected goals per game | 2.08 |
| 0.67 | Goals allowed per game | 0.75 |
| 0.90 | Expected goals allowed per game | 0.78 |
| 44.9% | Possession % | 59.1% |
| 50.0% | Clean Sheet % | 42.7% |
| 11.7 | Shots per game | 19.3 |
Stats in table from 2022-23 Serie A play.
Napoli Team Total Over 1.5 Goals
Likewise, another play I like for this match is the Napoli team total total to exceed 1.5 goals. This play has odds of -117, and has hit in 72% of their matches this season.
Now, Atalanta do have a stingy defense, only conceding 0.75 goals per game in Serie A play. However, they have not played an attacking side quite like Napoli. Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will give their defense fits in all sorts of areas.
Victor Osimhen: Eight goals, one assist
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Eight goals, 10 assistsNapoli have a scary duo this season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/5PnXGIknRB
— B/R Football (@brfootball) October 29, 2022
Additionally, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have conceded in three of their last four, giving up multiple goals twice. Their 2-0 loss to Lazio was the perfect case study of how a competent attack can catch them out.
Atalanta vs Napoli Projected Lineups and Injuries
Atalanta Projected Lineup: Musso, Maehle, Okoli, Demiral, Toloi, Hateboer, Koopmeiners, Ederson, Pasalic, Zapata, Lookman
Major Injuries & Absences: Muriel, Scalvini, De Roon, Zappacosta, Palomino
Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret, Olivera, Kim, Ostigard, Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, Anguissa, Zielinski, Kvaratskhelia, Osimhen, Lozano
Major Injuries & Absences: Rrahmani
Atalanta vs Napoli Prediction
Overall, Atalanta also do not benefit from their current injury list. La Dea will be without Luis Muriel up top, which could force Duvan Zapata back into play. Zapata has not played the majority of a full 90 since late August, which would definitely hinder Atalanta’s offensive threat.
While Napoli are missing Amir Rrahmani at center-back, they will be confident in Leo Ostigard’s ability to handle this makeshift strike-pair of Zapata and Lookman.
Losing 1-0 in the dying minutes, slipped and down on the floor, but look at Ostigard’s desire to prevent the goal 💪
He remains aware, tracks his man, and what a clearance 👏pic.twitter.com/g6O66EPhaa
— Be Your Best (@BeYourBest_pro) November 3, 2022
Atalanta are also still without the services of Marten de Roon and Davide Zappacosta, which puts them far from full strength. Even at home, getting a result in this match is a tall order for Atalanta. My best bet is the Napoli moneyline (+104), but I would also lean on the over on 3.5 total goals.
Pick: Napoli moneyline (+104)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
