MLS Picks, Predictions & Odds Week 28 – Austin vs Portland, Toronto vs LA Galaxy & More
- MLS Week 28 features 11 games on Wednesday, August 31, 2022
- Last week’s MLS picks record: 3-2, +0.62 units; Season Record 58-42, +9.96 units
- Read on for the MLS odds and our MLS predictions for today below
MLS Week 28 kicks off on Wednesday night, August 31 with an 11-game card when Philadelphia vs Atlanta gets things rolling at 7:00 pm EST. We’ve scoured the card and come up with three best bets for our MLS picks today below.
MLS Odds Week 28
| Matchup | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United | -175 | +310 | +420 |
| CF Montreal vs New York Red Bulls | -105 | +250 | +275 |
| Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami CF | -155 | +280 | +400 |
| New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire | -125 | +265 | +310 |
| Orlando City SC vs Seattle Sounders | +115 | +235 | +225 |
| Toronto FC vs LA Galaxy | -110 | +280 | +260 |
| NYCFC vs DC United | -235 | +360 | +550 |
| Houston Dynamo vs LAFC | +265 | +265 | -110 |
| Nashville SC vs Colorado Rapids | -135 | +275 | +340 |
| Austin FC vs Portland Timbers | -130 | +295 | +300 |
| Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United | -105 | +260 | +255 |
Odds from Ceasars Sportsbook
MLS Picks for Week 28
Looking at the odds in the table above you can see Philly and NYCFC are both commanding favorites to take three points over Atlanta United and DC United respectively. The only team favored to win on the road is LAFC over the Houston Dynamo listed as odds-on favorites at -110 odds.
Our MLS picks today will feature three bets from the games listed above.
Houston Dynamo vs LAFC Picks
It’s top versus bottom when LAFC travels to Houston’s PNC Stadium on Wednesday night. Los Angeles leads the Supporters’ Shield race at 18-3-6 and 57 points. Meanwhile, the Dynamo are in Wooden Spoon contention at 7-5-15 and 26 points.
Despite the disparity in the table, both enter this one in poor form. LAFC is riding a two-game losing skid after getting blitzed in Austin, 4-1 on Friday. It was the first start for Gareth Bale and it didn’t go well for the Welshman or Steve Cherundolo’s side. That follows a 2-1 road loss in San Jose the week prior.
*mic tap* ahem – @PhilaUnion would like a word. 🥇
After 11 weeks, @lafc shift down in the rankings.
Full Rankings here: https://t.co/VObIEr0hk2 // @Sorare pic.twitter.com/dXl6kXHxoS
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) August 30, 2022
The Dynamo are also coming off a defeat, 2-1 in Minnesota. The loss was especially difficult to accept considering they were leading 1-0 until conceding goals in the 79′ and 84′ minutes. They’re now winless in six and have just one win in their past 11.
It’s the first meeting this season, and the teams drew both meetings 1-1 last year.
The poor form for LAFC is likely a small blip on what’s otherwise been an outstanding year. It can be chalked up to trying to work Bale into the starting XI. San Jose is a local rival and Austin is third overall in the league. Houston is just bad. And there’s been no improvement since adding Hector Herrera. They rank 23rd in xGA, and only seven teams have allowed more goals this season. That’s likely to be a problem against an LAFC team ranked third in goals, second in xG, second in attacking third touches and first in shots and shots on target.
The early lines saw LAFC favored at +110 odds, but that quickly shortened to odds-on over the weekend. Nonetheless, it’s still a good price to grab LAFC at for your MLS picks.
Pick: LAFC to win (-110); 1 unit
Austin FC vs Portland Timbers Picks
Each side enters this midweek game in high spirits. Austin, as mentioned above, had an impressive win over LAFC on Friday. In the late game following that on Friday. Portland got one over their rivals Seattle, winning 2-1 at home.
That propelled them into the final playoff spot in the West and won them this year’s Cascadia Cup. The win snapped a streak of five winless for Gio Savarese’s side. It didn’t snap a streak of games that have now seen both teams scoring in eight straight Timbers matches. That bet would’ve cashed in 12 of their most recent 14 as well. Of those past 14, the Over has hit in 10/14. In fact, both teams have scored in 21/28 of their matches this season.
▪️ The formation change that propelled @TimbersFC to victory over Seattle
▪️ @AustinFC's impressive run continues
▪️Tesho Akindele making an impact for @OrlandoCitySC@MattDoyle76 takes a closer look at everything from Week 27:— Major League Soccer (@MLS) August 30, 2022
But just for a better visual representation of those scores. Those seven scorelines have read: 4-1 (W), 4-3 (W), 3-3 (D), 4-3 (L), 3-1 (W), 2-2 (D) and 2-2 (D).
Portland won the lone earlier meeting this season 1-0. But last year the results were 3-0 Portland at home, and two home Austin wins, 3-1 and 4-1.
The way these teams are playing right now, goals should be in the cards.
Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 (-133); 1 unit at William Hill
Toronto FC vs LA Galaxy Pick
It’s the Greg Vanney Bowl, when Vanney’s current team, the LA Galaxy, travels to Ontario, Canada to face Vanney’s old team, Toronto FC on Wednesday. Vanney is Toronto’s most successful head coach and won MLS Cup with TFC in 2017.
Outside of history, this is a huge match for both sides as they try to nail down a playoff spot in their respective conferences. Toronto sits outside of the Eastern Conference Playoffs in tenth place with 33 points after a 2-0 win in Charlotte on Saturday. They may be on the outside looking in, but they are just three points back of the seventh-place Columbus Crew.
Meanwhile, the Galaxy are holders of the final Western Conference Playoff position. They’re in seventh with 37 points after beating New England 2-1 on Sunday night. But much like in the East, it will be a dogfight until the end as four teams behind them are all within five points or fewer.
https://twitter.com/Total_TFC/status/1564441856964005889?s=20&t=WjzdnD6kkui5n032u-99qA
With games last weekend and this upcoming weekend for both, midweek games are often a chance for squad rotation. But given the positions of both, this may not be the case for MLS Week 28.
TFC had been on a run of four games which saw a bet on both teams to score and the Over cashing prior to their shutout of Charlotte. A road shutout is great, but it’s still Charlotte. A team devoid of any true standout attacking threats. TFC doesn’t keep many clean sheets. They have just three all season and all three came in their past seven. Two of those came versus the Crown. So long as Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi are in the lineup, the Reds’ offense should be electric. TFC has scored 16 goals in the seven games since the Italian duo joined. The two have accounted for nine of those goals. Add in Italian defender Domenico Criscito and the trio has been involved in 13 of TFC’s last 15 goals.
ICYM my latest story for TFC Republic –
Greg Vanney: 'It was never ever my intention to leave Toronto'
In a 1-on-1 interview, Vanney discusses his return to BMO Field for the first time, if TFC could've done more to convince him to stay, and much more.https://t.co/0cq1KIo7y8
— John Molinaro (@JohnMolinaro) August 30, 2022
The Galaxy offense will be a step up for Toronto’s typically shaky backline though. Both Chicharito (12 goals) and Dejan Joveljic (10), lead the LA attack with double figures in goalscoring. They’ll need to be in the lineup for this one as no one else on the team has registered more than three goals.
LA may be only 14-12 to the Over this season, but their past four scorelines have read 2-1 (W), 3-3 (D), 5-2 (W) and 4-2 (L). They’ve kept just one clean sheet in nine games and just seven all season; most of which came early in the season. I don’t see them keeping TFC off the board on their home pitch at BMO. Back the Over and both teams scoring in your MLS picks. And be sure to check out this Barstool Sportsbook promo code that offers a unique bonus for new customers to bet on MLS.
Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 (-152); 1 unit at Barstool Sportsbook
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
