NYCFC +430 Odds to Win MLS Cup Ahead of Playoffs

• New York City FC earned points in 10 of 11 matches to close the MLS season atop the Eastern Conference table
• City have seen their MLS Cup odds fade to as far as +500 as they await a Conference Semifinal opponent
• Injuries, potential playoff matchup with defending champions Atlanta United in Conference Finals represent greatest threats to City’s MLS Cup hopes

After claiming the top of the MLS Eastern Conference table for the first time in their short five-year history, New York City FC now enjoy a first-round bye as they await the winner of next week’s clash between Toronto FC and DC United.

But despite earning points in 10 of their final 11 matches of their franchise-record campaign, City enter the playoffs seeing their average odds fading just slightly from +400 last week to +430 today. In one sportsbook, they are second-favorites overall behind LAFC.

Odds to Win 2019 MLS Cup

*Odds taken on 10/08/19

Late-Season Surge Buoyed MLS Cup Odds

NYCFC’s steady rise up the MLS Cup odds coincided with a late-season surge that started in mid-August. The club saw their odds dip to a lengthy +900 after suffering five losses over an eight-match stretch that marked their first defeats of the season, and dumped them into third place in the Eastern Conference.

https://twitter.com/Jasoninho10/status/1180973010695720961?s=20

City made a quick and dramatic turnaround, outgunning opponents by a 12-4 margin during a six-match win streak that began with a 4-1 rout of FC Cincinnati on August 17, and have surrendered more than one goal just once over their final 11 contests, a 2-0 loss to New England in their penultimate match of the season on September 29.

With that victory, the club peaked with average MLS Cup odds of +400, but have slightly faded after Decision Day to +430. So should NYCFC fans be concerned about their club’s championship expectations at the sportsbooks? The short answer is yes.

Injuries, Checkered Records vs Potential Opponents Cause for Concern

NYCFC sport checkered head-to-head records against their two potential Conference Semifinal opponents. The club earned just a single point in two meetings with Toronto FC this season. Toronto also enters the MLS Cup playoffs on a roll, going undefeated in 10 straight league matches, and earning at least a point in six straight road dates.

And while NYCFC earned a win and a draw in two meetings with DC United, they enter the playoffs riding a six-match unbeaten streak, and have kept clean sheets in four straight outings.

🎙️ | "It’s very important when a player comes back after a month, after the injuries, to start to play. If the striker scores, it’s much better. Right now, it’s step-by-step with Héber. The most important thing is to arrive in the best form in the playoff." – @DomeTorrent #NYCFC pic.twitter.com/ESwuTjNJUo

— New York City FC (@newyorkcityfc) September 26, 2019

Also of concern is the rash of injuries that City have faced of late. The club saw leading goal scorer Héber Araujo dos Santos suffer a leg injury in warmups ahead of their 2-1 win over Philadelphia on MLS Decision Day.

Next week’s bye provides time for City’s walking wounded to heal, and the club’s impressive 11-1-5 win-loss-draw record on home turf will make them the favorite against whomever they face in MLS Conference Semifinal action.

Héber’s 15 goals this season represent almost a quarter of City’s offensive production. Attacker Ismael Tajouri-Shradi also suffered a calf injury after potting his fifth goal of the season in the club’s win over the Union. Of course, next week’s bye provides time for City’s walking wounded to heal, and the club’s impressive 11-1-5 win-loss-draw record on home turf will make them the favorite against whoever they face in MLS Conference Semifinal action.

Martinez, Atlanta a Threat to City’s Championship Hopes

The real threat to City’s championship hopes among Eastern Conference rivals is likely to come from the reigning MLS Cup champions, Atlanta United.

Atlanta struggled down the stretch, posting wins in just three of their final seven contests and currently sit as a lengthy +800 bet in sportsbooks to repeat as MLS Cup champions. However, with the club enjoying the benefit of experience from last year’s championship march, and Josef Martinez currently on a torrid goalscoring pace, with 22 markers in his past 17 matches, Atlanta United offer lots of value.

City topped Atlanta 4-1 in a September 25 clash that the talented Venezuelan was forced to miss due to injury. But Martinez has owned City when healthy, potting five total goals in his past three appearances against New York including both markers in Atlanta’s 2-1 victory on August 11.

Martinez also potted a pair of goals in the second leg of last season’s Eastern Conference semifinal, a 3-1 win that brought an end to City’s season. And if he can stay healthy, the 26-year-old leaves Atlanta United perched as an attractive dark horse pick entering this year’s playoffs.

Pick: Atlanta United to win the 2019 MLS Cup (+800)