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Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk Odds & Picks – UCL Group Stage Matchday 3

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Oct 5, 2022 · 7:02 AM PDT

Real Madrid forward Vinicius Jose Paixao kicks the ball ahead
Jul 23, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Real Madrid forward Vinicius Jose Paixao (20) kicks the ball ahead against Barcelona during a game at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk in Week 3 of the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 5
  • Los Blancos top the group with a 100 percent record while Donetsk are second just two points behind
  • We preview the game, look at the Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk odds, and offer some picks below

On Wednesday, October 5 it’s Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk in Week 3 of the UEFA Champions League season. It all kicks off in the Santiago Bernabeau 3:00 pm ET.

Real Madrid are two wins from two in Group F, while Shakhtar are second after collecting four points from their opening two games.

We preview Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk, take a look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and picks for this  UCL Group F clash.

Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Real Madrid -500
Shakhtar Donetsk +1300
Draw +575

Odds as of October 5 at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this or other games.

Real Madrid are massive odds-on favorites to win, with Caesars having pitched them at -500, which equates to an 83% implied win probability.

On the flip side, Shakhtar are listed at an equally massive +1300 for the win with an implied probability of just 7%. The draw is also generously priced at +575, with an implied probability of 15%.

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Over/Under and Spread

Caesars are expecting plenty of goals in this game with over 3.5 goals pitched at -105, while under 3.5 is also surprisingly odds-on at -125.

If you’re new to betting on soccer and want to know about Soccer Futures and Outright Betting, then our page offers help on how to do this on this and other Champion League games.

Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction

Real Madrid’s defense of their Champions League crown – they beat Liverpool in last season’s final – has started well with two wins from their opening two games. They are also yet to concede a goal in the competition after beating Celtic 3-0 in Glasgow on opening day and then following it up with a comfortable 2-0 win over RB Leipzig on home soil.

Los Blancos are again among that small group of teams considered to be in with a chance of lifting the trophy but in the Champions League odds are still listed fifth behind Man City, PSG, Bayern Munich and Liverpool.  While there is a long way to go, those two early wins have at least put them in pole position to qualify for the knockout phase.

Los Blancos on Fire

Real Madrid have started their La Liga program in equally unstoppable fashion but slipped up at the weekend when their 100 percent record was ended by Osasuna, who held them to a 1-1 draw. As a result, they dropped to second in the table behind Barcelona.

While Real are heavy favorites to beat Shakhtar, it is worth noting that they lost both home and away to the Ukrainians in the group stages of the 2020-21 tournament.

Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk Head-to-Head Stats

Real Madrid
VS
Shakhtar Donetsk
2-2-0 UCL 2022-23 record 1-1-0
5 / 0 Goals for / against 5 / 2
1st Position in group 2nd
24 / 9 Goal attempts / on target 10 / 6
91.5 Passing accuracy (%) 84
58.5 Possession (%) 41
W-W-W-W-W-D Form guide (all competitions) W-W-W-W-D-W

Fine UCL Start for Shakhtar

While, as mentioned above, Shakhtar beat Real twice in the 2020-21 UCL, they lost to them twice in last season’s competition, which included a 2-1 defeat at the Bernabeu on their way to finishing bottom of their group.

They have, however, made a good start to this season’s campaign, with an impressive 4-1 away win over RB Leipzig on Matchday 1 which they followed up with a slightly disappointing 1-1 draw at home with Celtic.

Mudryk in Demand

Shakhtar’s domestic form has also been good and they currently lead the Ukrainian Premier League with a 4-1-0 record. At the weekend, Igor Jovicevic’s team beat Metalist Kharkiv 6-1 to maintain their place at the top.

The key man for Donetsk is winger Mykhaylo Mudryk, who has two goals and two assists to his name already in this season’s UCL. The 21-year-old has a host of big European clubs vying for his signature but while he is still a Shakhtar player, they remain dangerous opponents.

Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk Team Lineups and Injuries

Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Lunin, Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Mendy, Valverde, Tchouameni, Kroos, Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius.

Injuries & absences: Courtois, Ceballos.

Shakhtar Projected Lineup: Trubin, Taylor, Bondar, Matviyenko, Konoplya, Shved, Bondarenko, Stepanenko, Sudakov, Mudryk, Sikan.

Injuries & absences: Kornienko.

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Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk Pick

Given the very short price for the home win, the only value bet involving Real is in trying to predict the score, but even that ignores what an accomplished outfit the Ukrainians are.

For me, even with Real’s wealth of talent and experience, given what’s occurring in their homeland, Shakhtar could produce something extraordinary here. The draw, at nearly 6/1, feels achievable for them.

Pick: Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk to draw (+575)

 

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