Saint-Etienne & Rennes Lead Ligue 1 After Four Rounds; Do They Offer Value for Top 3 Finish?

• Off to strong starts to the 2020-21 season, Saint-Etienne and Rennes have seen their odds to finish in the top three shorten
• PSG, despite losing two of their first four matches, are still the heavy favorites to lift the title
• Is there value in backing Saint-Etienne and Rennes to contend near the top?

Four gameweeks into the Ligue 1 season, there are a couple of surprising names at the top. Saint-Etienne and Rennes are the two best teams in the league at this early stage with 10 points apiece, putting them four clear of PSG and five ahead of struggling Lyon.

Rennes are looking to build on a strong third-place finish in the truncated 2019-20 campaign. It’s a different situation for Saint-Etienne, however, who narrowly avoided relegation last season and came into this campaign with few expecting anything special.

There’s been early movement in the Ligue 1 odds and the current odds can be seen in the table below.

Ligue 1 2020-21 Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings on September 24.

Drastic Odds Movement

Saint-Etienne were +16500 to win the title on August 17th. Little over a month later, that price is down to +6533. The trend is similar, albeit less dramatic, for Rennes, who moved from +6667 to +4333 over that period. While a title bet is still extremely ambitious, bettors should take note of their respective top three prices. Saint-Etienne are into +700 with DraftKings and Rennes are +250 to match last season’s feat. The two sides meet this weekend in Ligue 1 Matchday 5 action.

Consecutive 1-0 losses to start the season have left PSG playing catch up. The reigning champions have followed up with wins over Metz and Nice, however, putting them within touching distance of the top of the table. A shaky start to the season, and a limited off-season having reached the Champions League final, has impacted their odds already. Back in July, the Parisians had an average title price of -1917. It’s now -715.

WORK, WORK & WORK 🔴🔵… pic.twitter.com/1A5sTBgnud

— Kylian Mbappé (@KMbappe) September 23, 2020

Lille won two and drew two of their first four. They had average title odds of +5000 in mid-August, but they have moved into +4100.

Rennes Mix Youth and Experience

Steven Nzonzi brings a calming presence to the Rennes midfield alongside teenage phenom Eduardo Camavinga. The sale of Edouard Mendy to Chelsea could give them funds to bolster the squad before the window shuts. Their current group has a well-designed mix of experience from Nzonzi and Damien Da Silva and younger talents such as Camavinga. M’Baye Niang, now 25, was once one of the top-rated young players in Europe – he was their leading scorer last term.

Leading summer signing Serhou Guirassy is off to a decent start with a couple of goals under his belt after scoring nine for Amiens in 2019-20. There’s certainly sufficient talent to make them a good top three bet at +250, despite conceding five goals in their first four matches. There’s reason to believe this defense will improve after letting in the joint-fewest last season.

With European football on their schedule this year, though, their squad depth will be challenged and that could make some bettors wary.

Marseille Win Key for Saint-Etienne

Three wins and a draw is a great start for Saint-Etienne, but it’s easy to point at the schedule. Wins over Strasbourg and Lorient, and a draw with Nantes are an improvement on their form last season, but it’s nothing to get too excited about. The victory over Marseille is where Les Verts become a more interesting proposition.

Marseille had 60% of the ball and the shot count was pretty even. Saint-Etienne took their chances to win 2-0, keeping last season’s runners-up at bay. It was a template for how they will need to play against the big teams this season.

It would still be a huge shock to see Saint-Etienne achieve anything above mid-table. It’s worth holding off to see how they fare over the next few weeks before backing them for a top three finish.

Keep An Eye On Lille

Lille finished last season strongly. They won five of their last six matches to nil, the only loss coming to Marseille. There have been major departures, of course, with Victor Osimhen joining Napoli, Gabriel signing with Arsenal and Nico Gaitan returning to Portugal.

It’s not the same squad as last season, but they have picked up where they left off, taking eight points from their first four matches, including a 1-1 draw with Marseille last time out. In veteran Burak Yilmaz they have added a proven goal scorer and Canadian Jonathan David is the most exciting off-season Ligue 1 signing.

The sales still make a top three finish a big ask with Lyon, Rennes and Marseille all well-positioned and deservedly at shorter prices. Lille could still be worth a bet at +275 with a strong defense and goals in their team.