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Serie A Week 7 Odds and Picks: Atalanta vs Inter Milan, Torino vs Crotone & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Mar 4, 2021 · 7:44 AM PST

Serie A Matchday 23
Inter Milan's Romelu Lukaku celebrates after scores with penalty against Lazio during a Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Lazio at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Serie A Week 7 begins on Friday, November 6, 2020
  • Will Bologna concede a goal for a 40th-straight league game during their clash with Napoli?
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Week 7 here

Round 7 in Italy’s Serie A will kick off on Friday afternoon with Sassuolo hosting Udinese at 2:45 pm EST. The weekend will then include three matches on Saturday and another six on Sunday.

After a surprising road win against Napoli last week, Sassuolo can take over the top spot in the league, at least temporarily, should they win on Friday.

So far it’s been harder to pick the games that won’t see goals each week in Serie A. The average goals scored per round in the past three matchdays have been 4.1, 4.1 and 3.7 last weekend. In those past three rounds both teams have scored in 25/30 matches and at least three goals have been scored in 23/30. On the season, oddly, 39-19 is the record for both bets on ether both teams to score and also on a bet of OVER 2.5 goals.

Until this streak ends, it’s likely worth mentioning each week. Bologna were 3-2 winners over Cagliari last week. Though that means they’ve now conceded in 39-straight league matches—an all-time record tie among Europe’s top five leagues. They’re at home to Napoli this week where they’ve scored at least once themselves in 27/29 home meetings, meaning a high-scoring affair could be on the menu.

But there’s plenty of matches which should feature some goal-scoring and we break them down in our Serie A Week 7 previews below.

Serie A Week 7 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Sassuolo vs Udinese -110 +280 +260
Cagliari vs Sampdoria +187 +260 +130
Benevento vs Spezia -110 +260 +275
Parma vs Fiorentina +230 +260 +105
Lazio vs Juventus +250 +275 -106
Atalanta vs Inter Milan +175 +250 +130
Genoa vs Roma +400 +300 -163
Torino vs Crotone +115 +240 +225
Bologna vs Napoli +375 +320 -154
AC Milan vs Verona -223 +350 +550

All odds taken Nov 4 at Bet365

Benevento vs Spezia

Two promoted sides meet when Benevento (14th) hosts Spezia (17th) at 12:00 pm Saturday afternoon.

Benevento are coming off three-straight losses, their most recent being on Monday in a 2-1 road defeat to Verona.

Spezia is winless in four matches themselves (0-2-2) and suffered a 4-1 mauling to title-holders Juventus on Saturday.

Last year in Serie B, Benevento were 3-1 winners at home and 1-0 winners away over Spezia. They have only met on five other occasions and each of the previous four meetings before last year saw both teams scoring and at least three combined goals or more.

This season, both find themselves in the bottom half of the table but also outside of the relegation zone. And while both are shipping goals at an alarming rate (17 for Benevento and 15 for Spezia), both have also had their moments on offense too.

Benevento has ten goals and have scored in all six of their matches. While Spezia only has eight goals, but has managed to find the back of the net in five of their six matches.

The two teams rank 19th (Spezia) and 20th (Benevento) in expected goals against and at this rate it seems unlikely either are primed to keep a clean sheet in this one.

Both teams have shown some fight in the early stages of this campaign and will each expect to take points from this one. That should result in some chances (and goals) at both ends of the pitch.

Alternatively, if you’re looking for a goalscorer bet, Gianluca Lapadula has three on the year for Benevento and is offered at +110 as an anytime scorer. Teammate and fellow three-goal man Gianluca Caprari received a red card in Monday’s match, meaning the Stregoni may be counting on the Peruvian even more.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-125)

2024 Serie A Odds Tracker
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Atalanta vs Inter Milan

This looks like the biggest match of the weekend with fourth-place Atalanta hosting sixth-place Inter Milan at 9:00 am EST on Sunday.

After a surprising 3-1 defeat to Sampdoria, Atalanta responded with a 2-1 win over Crotone last weekend. All three goals were scored in the first half with Atalanta taking a 2-0 lead before Simy cut the deficit to one for Crotone soon after.

On Tuesday in the Champions League, Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta hosted Premier League champions, Liverpool, in a key Group D match. On paper this looked to have the makings of a classic match, but in reality, only one team came to play. Liverpool were ahead 2-0 at the half by two Diogo Jota goals. They quickly added two more early in the second before Jota added another to complete his hat-trick and give the Reds a 5-0 lead.

Inter were also involved in the Champions League on Tuesday, playing away to Real Madrid. Madrid were 2-0 ahead early one before Inter fought back to drawl level 2-2. However, an 80′ minute goal from Rodrygo would prove to be the winner for Real, leaving Inter still winless in Group B.

In league play, Inter saw plenty of goals in their opening four matches on both ends of the pitch, with both teams scoring in all four, before a 2-0 road win over Genoa on October 24. The goals were free-flowing again though on Saturday during a 2-2 draw with struggling Parma. The match was scoreless at halftime, but Parma took a 2-0 lead in the second half. Inter needed to fight back, scoring once in the 64′ minute and again in the dying moments in the 92′ minute to draw level.

Matchups between these teams have been relatively low-scoring of late with Inter winning 2-0 at Atalanta and the teams drawing 1-1 in Milan. The 2018/19 season saw Atalanta win 4-1 at home and a 0-0 draw in Milan. While in 2017/18 it was a 2-0 home Inter win and a 0-0 draw at Atalanta. There’s been just one road win in those past six meetings and just one in the past ten if you go further back.

With 17 goals scored and 13 conceded, Atlanta have seen the highest average goals in their matches at five. While Inter, (15GF/10GA) also sees plenty of goals in their matches with an average of 4.2. For Atlanta, they’ve yet to play a game in six rounds which didn’t see both teams scoring and at least three goals being scored.

With the international break looming and both teams alive in the title race, we may not see as much rotation this weekend. Both managers will want to go into the break on a high resulting in plnety of chances and goals at both ends.

Betting either team to score OVER 1.5 team goals can also net you a slightly better return. Atalanta pays -120, while Inter is -138 on that prop. With Romelu Lukaku out injured for Inter, a bet on Lautaro Mantinez as anytime goalscorer at +120 also offers value. He has three on the year and scored on Tuesday vs Real Madird as well.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-163)

Torino vs Crotone

Torino looked on their way to a win over Lazio last weekend until imploding late on. After scoring what they thought was the winner to make it 3-2 in the 87′ minute, they conceded goals in the 95th and 98th minutes to lose 4-3.

On Wednesday they were in action again against Genoa. Torino took a 2-0 lead into the half and only a late 94′ minute goal from Genoa made the score look closer. However, Genoa did hold a 4-1 edge in shots on target (one Torino goal came from on own goal).

Last weekend’s match versus Lazio was just one of many recent wild games for Torino who previously drew 3-3 with Sassuolo and lost 3-2 to Cagliari and 4-2 to Atalanta. The Sassuolo match also saw them cough up a 3-1 lead allowing goals in the 84′ and 85′ minutes.

Torino has now scored 12 goals and allowed 16 on the year which gives them the second-highest average goals in their matches at 4.7. Half of Torino’s goals have come from target man Andrea Belotti who is second in league scoring.

Next up for Torino is 20th-place Crotone at 9:00 am on Sunday morning.

It seems unlikely they won’t continue to find success offensively against Crotone. They are winless after six matches and have conceded 17 goals in those games. That’s tied for the joint-worst total overall. Mostly due to their poor defense, Crotone matches are the 10th-highest scoring games in the league with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

Crotone have conceded at least two goals in all but one of their six matches. Three times they’ve allowed four.

However, they have managed to score a goal in 5/6 Serie A matches including to the likes of Atalanta, Juve and Sassuolo. They were only held off the scoresheet to current leaders AC Milan.

Crotone may lose once again this weekend but should be able to get on the scoresheet to a shaky Torino backline playing on short rest.

Once again it’s hard to not simply back both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 goals at plus-money (+105). An Andrea Belotti goal looks likely at -120 as well. From the Crotone side, if they score it’s likely to come from Simy (+105), who has three of their six goals.

Totals bettors can look to OVER 2.5 (-138) or possibly OVER 3.5 at +200. But even-money for at least two Torino goals is where I’ll look for the best bet.

Pick: Torino – Over 1.5 Goals (+100)

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