Andrey Rublev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds & Prediction – Astana Open Semifinals
- Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece is a -115 favorite over Russia’s Andrey Rublev ahead of their ATP Astana Open semifinal match on Saturday, October 8
- This will be Tsitsipas’ eighth semifinal appearance of 2022, but he’s still looking for his first title of the year
- See the Tsitsipas vs Rublev odds below, plus analysis and a betting prediction
The final four is set at the ATP Astana Open in Kazakhstan. Saturday’s marquee semifinal matchup pits second seed Daniil Medvedev versus fourth seed Novak Djokovic, while fifth seed Andrey Rublev battles third seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the other semi.
The latter matchup is where we’ll focus here, as oddsmakers expect a tightly contested battle. Tsitsipas opened up as the favorite, but only by the slimmest of margins.
Tsitsipas vs Rublev ATP Astana Open Odds
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | -115 | -1.5 (-110) | O 22.5 (-138) |
| Andrey Rublev | -105 | +1.5 (-125) | U 22.5 (+100) |
Odds as of October 7th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo to bet on the Astana Open semifinals.
The Greek is currently listed at -115 on the moneyline, with Rublev coming back as a short -105 underdog. Neither player has dropped a set through their first three matches, although Tsitsipas has faced a much tougher group of opponents.
The semifinal is scheduled to get underway at 6:00 am ET in Astana, Kazakhstan, with the Tennis Channel providing the broadcast coverage.
Tsitsipas Semifinal Bound Again
After an extremely competitive round of 16 match with Italy’s Luca Nardi, Tsitsipas squared off against seventh seed Hubert Hurkacz in the quarters. Tsitsipas had beaten Hurkacz in six of their previous eight encounters, and his dominance over him continued.
The Greek earned a 7-6, 6-3 victory, although he had to claw his way back in the opening set. Tsitsipas fought off five set points in the tiebreaker, before coming away with a 10-8 win.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has played 117 individual ATP Level Events since his 1st one in February 2017 Rotterdam
Made SFs or better in: 41/117 (35%)
2017: 1/10 (10%)
2018: 5/29 (17.2%)
2019: 11/26 (42.3%)
2020: 5/12 (41.7%)
2021: 10/21 (47.6%)
2022 So Far: 9/19 (47.4%)Consistency!
— Vansh (@vanshv2k) October 7, 2022
His serve continued to be his biggest weapon, as he didn’t face a break point for the second straight match. He’s yet to be broken all tournament and lost only 10 total points during his service games.
Tsitsipas’s return game wasn’t especially sharp, but he did earn a key break in the second set to help seal the victory. He converted on just 1-of-9 break points in the match, an area of his game he’ll need to improve on to keep his run in Astana going.
This will mark the eighth semifinal appearance for the World No. 6 this year, although he’s still looking for his first title of 2022. He’s come up short in each of his three finals, two at Masters 1000 events, and two on hard courts.
Rublev Breezes Into Semis
Rublev meanwhile, barely broke a sweat in his quarterfinal matchup. He disposed of Adrian Mannarino 6-1, 6-2, winning 70% of the total points. The victory follows a pair of convincing wins over Zhang Zhizhen and Laslo Dere, where he dropped a combined 12 games total.
Flawless Rublev! ♨️
Russian player has knocked out Adrian Mannarino 6-1 6-2 in 55 minutes to reclaim his 8th semi-final of the year in Astana pic.twitter.com/8jhfKjPHxT
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) October 7, 2022
Like Tsitsipas, he’s yet to be broken this week, although as mentioned the quality of the competition has been significantly lower. Two of Rublev’s opponents were qualifiers, while Mannarino is ranked 51st in the world.
Rublev has won three times already in 2022 and will be making his eighth semifinal appearance. He’s 3-4 in his previous seven and has played Tsitsipas tightly over the course of their careers.
Tsitsipas vs Rublev Stats
| 6 | ATP Ranking | 9 |
| 9 | ATP Titles | 11 |
| 13 | ATP Final Appearances | 16 |
| 52-18 | W-L (2022) | 43-15 |
| 5-4 | Head-to-Head Record | 4-5 |
Tsitsipas vs Rublev Pick
Tsitsipas holds a 5-4 advantage in their head-to-head meetings, with each winning three times on hard courts. Just three of their nine career meetings have been straight sets victories, and this matchup profiles as one that should go the distance.
Both players are on top of their service game right now, while Tsitsipas’s return needs some work. We’ll likely see at least one set go to a tiebreaker and possibly more.
Semi-finals locked in Astana 🔒
📍 #AstanaOpen
🇷🇸 [4] Djokovic vs. [2] Medvedev
[5] Rublev vs. [3] Tsitsipas 🇬🇷The final will be ______________ ✍️👇 pic.twitter.com/HmzIdFztSW
— ATP Tour (@atptour) October 7, 2022
Each have a 60% winning percentage versus top-10 opposition this season, while both have won at least 75% of their matches that have gone the distance.
Bottom-line, this match feels way too close to call making over 22.5 games our preferred betting target for our Tsitsipas vs Rublev picks.
Pick: Over 22.5 (-138)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
