Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Australian Open Quarterfinals Odds & Pick
- Petra Kvitova beat Ashleigh Barty in the 2019 Australian Open quarterfinals. She is 2-0 against Barty at grand slams
- Kvitova won the first four head-to-head matches with Barty but Barty has won each of the last three
- Barty is 3-2 against Kvitova on hard courts but is 0-2 on all other surfaces
As we move into the second week of action at the Australian Open, the quarterfinals are set. One of the most highly anticipated showdowns will be the one between No. 1 Ashleigh Barty and No. 7 Petra Kvitova. Barty is a slight -140 favorite but is she the best bet in this showdown or is there value with the underdog?
Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashleigh Barty | -1.5 (-120) | -140 | Over 22.0 (-125) |
| Petra Kvitova | +1.5 (-110) | +115 | Under 22.0 (-105) |
Odds taken Jan. 27
Barty Has Played Well Down Under
Barty is the No. 1 player in the world but she has an awful track record at the Australian Open, so nobody has really been sure what to expect. Prior to this year, the Aussie has never made it past the quarterfinal at this grand slam. She’s only been this far one other time; every other time she’s lost before the fourth round.
Barty has done well this time around as she’s only lost two sets en route to her quarterfinal appearance. The first was concerning as she lost her opening set of the tournament. However, she didn’t lose another set until the second set of her fourth round matchup with No. 18 Alison Riske.
To date, she hasn’t really played anyone besides Riske and No. 29 Elena Rybakina, so it’s hard to say if she’s got the mettle to see this through.
Kvitova Has Been in Control
Kvitova has enjoyed far more success in her career at the Australian Open than Barty, which is why more people were excited about her futures than Barty’s going in. Kvitova lost in the final last year and previously made it to the semis (2012) and quarters (2011).
So far in the 2020 tournament, Kvitova has looked strong. She dropped a set to up-and-comer No. 22 Maria Sakkari in the fourth round but that was her only set loss in the Aussie Open so far. Beyond that, the set she lost was in a tiebreaker, so it’s not as if she was blown out.
Kvitova has mostly smoked the competition as she’s lost a total of 26 games through four matches, which is an average of six games per match. She hasn’t really played any stiff competition yet, though, as she beat Sakkari and No. 25 Ekaterina Alexandrova.
Barty vs Kvitova Statistical Comparison
| 8-1 | 2020 Record | 7-1 |
| 1 | 2020 Singles Titles | 0 |
| 3 | Head-to-Head Record | 4 |
| 2 | Sets Lost at 2020 Australian Open | 1 |
| 2 | Seeded Players Defeated at 2020 Australian International | 2 |
Kvitova Worth a Bet
Kvitova holds a slight 4-3 lead in the head-to-head showdowns although all of her wins came early while Barty has won three in a row. Kvitova’s wins come on grass, clay and once on the hard courts while all of Barty’s wins have come on hard courts.
While both of those trends are slightly concerning, my view is that this matchup is a complete tossup. Prior to the fourth round, Kvitova had lost just 14 games, which was the fewest in the draw. And while she won’t have home-court advantage, there was also a raucous Greek crowd cheering on Sakkari in the fourth round. She’ll be used to it.
Kvitova also beat her at the Aussie Open last year and while Barty won the other three matches in 2019, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kvitova won again here. At any rate, the odds slightly favor Barty but I see this as a toss-up, which is why I’ll take a flier on Kvitova.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
