ATP National Bank Open Odds & Preview – Five-Time Champion Nadal the Favorite
- If the National Bank Open sounds unfamiliar, that’s because it used to be the Rogers Cup
- Combine injuries, an Olympic year and the pandemic, and a long list of top names took a pass in 2021
- See below as we break down whether favorite Rafael Nadal can win No. 6 in Toronto this week
There will be a champion at the newly-renamed National Bank Open next Sunday.
But the talk may still center more around who didn’t come to Toronto and enter the secure bubble, than those who did. That’s how many big names are missing this year.
Djokovic, Federer, Thiem, Zverev, Berrettini, Murray – all MIA.
But Rafael Nadal, the champion of the last two editions held – 2019 in Montreal, 2018 in Toronto – will be on hand even if a lingering foot injury could mean he’s at less than 100%.
ATP National Bank Open Singles Odds
| Seed | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| [2] | Rafael Nadal (ESP) | +240 |
| [1] | Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +300 |
| [3] | Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | +600 |
| [4] | Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +750 |
| [5] | Denis Shapovalov (CAN) | +1400 |
| [16] | Jannik Sinner (ITA) | +2200 |
| [9] | Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | +2200 |
| [15] | Aslan Karatsev (RUS) | +2800 |
| [7] | Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | +3300 |
| – | Sebastian Korda (USA) | +4000 |
| – | Karen Khachanov (RUS) | +4000 |
| – | Kei Nishikori (JPN) | +5000 |
| – | Nick Kyrgios (AUS) | +5000 |
| – | John Isner (USA) | +5000 |
| [WC] | Jenson Brooksby (USA) | +5000 |
| [6] | Casper Ruud (NOR) | +8000 |
| [SE] | Mackenzie McDonald (USA) | +12500 |
Odds as of Aug. 8 at Bet365
This will be Nadal’s 14th trip to Canada. Only local hero Denis Shapovalov (who has a home-court connection) has more than two previous main-draw appearances among the contenders.
North American Hard-Court Debut for Many
Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, Hurbert Hurkacz and Aslan Karatsev all played the Olympics in Tokyo, on hard court.
But it’s a long trip, a tough comedown. And the stakes – and conditions – will be very different. Still, it’s a better situation than in non-Olympic years, when most would have come from the grass and a little summer break. That means the results might be a little more predictable.
ATP National Bank Open Contenders – Best Previous Results
| Player | Main-Draw Appearances | Career W/L | Best Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Nadal | 13 | 38-8 | Champion (5X) |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3 | 6-3 | Finalist (2019) |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2 | 5-2 | Finalist (2018) |
| Andrey Rublev | 1 | 0-2 | 1st round (2018) |
| Denis Shapovalov | 4 | 8-4 | SFs (2017) |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 1 | 2-3 | R16 (2019) |
| Jannik Sinner | – | – | Debut – 2021 |
| Aslan Karatsev | – | – | Debut – 2021 |
Former Champions Scarce in the Draw
With the notable exception of the favorite Nadal, former National Bank Open champions are scarce this year.
But Nadal doesn’t look to be 100%. And he won’t want to put pedal to metal three weeks before the US Open.
https://twitter.com/GstaadTennis/status/1418863099524878338
The tournament has been a springboard – for a young Alexander Zverev in 2017 when he won it, and for unseeded Tsitsipas in 2018 when he made the final in his Canadian debut.
It could be the moment for Shapovalov to make his move on home soil. Or Sebastian Korda. The Canadian arguably is in the right half of the draw – the top half.
Previous National Bank Open Winners and Finalists
| Year | Champion | Finalist |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Not Held | Not Held |
| 2019 | [1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) | [8] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) |
| 2018 | [1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) | Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) |
| 2017 | [4] Alexander Zverev (GER) | [2] Roger Federer (SUI) |
| 2016 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [3] Kei Nishikori (JPN) |
| 2015 | [2] Andy Murray (GBR) | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) |
| 2014 | [13] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) | [2] Roger Federer (SUI) |
| 2013 | [4] Rafael Nadal (ESP) | [11] Milos Raonic (CAN) |
First-Round Matches to Watch
Benoit Paire (+195) vs Mackenzie McDonald (-260)
It’s not that Benoit Paire hasn’t already been complaining about the bubble – he has. But he has been playing better tennis of late. Case in point: he took McDonald to 6-4 in the third set before losing their second-round encounter in Washington this week. And McDonald is in Sunday’s final there.
J’en peux plus de vos bulles @atptour !!! 💩
— paire benoit (@benoitpaire) August 7, 2021
The American must make a quick turnaround from the unaccustomed thrill of a big final. He has to change countries, and go back to grinding out a first-round match.
It might only be Tuesday, as he’ll have to wait out a negative COVID test upon arrival. But during that time he won’t be able to practice on courts he has seen only once, three years ago.
We’ve seen it often enough; McDonald is an upset waiting to happen.
Nick Kyrgios (-145) vs Reilly Opelka (+115)
Given a wild card into Toronto, Kyrgios has played little tennis and hasn’t looked particularly good, at least not in singles.
But the Aussie has had good success against the huge servers (Isner, Raonic – through he hasn’t beaten him since 2016 – and Karlovic).
The two have never met. But given their serves, the +100 for either of the first two sets to go over 12.5 games (i.e., a tiebreak) is a good bet.
Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev (+300)
Longer shot: Denis Shapovalov (+1400)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
