Australian Open Women’s Semi-Finals Odds: Kvitova vs Collins & Osaka vs Plíšková
- The Australian Open Women’s Singles Semi-Finals begin tonight
- After defeating favorite Serena, can Karolína Plíšková advance past Naomi Osaka?
- Does unranked Danielle Collins stand a chance to upset 8th seed Petra Kvitová?
The Australian Open Women’s Singles is down to the final four. Betting odds just took a shake up with tournament favorite Serena Williams being upset last night. Petra Kvitová is now considered the woman to beat with average odds of +120. All four remaining players have the chance to reach their first-ever AO Final.
Follow each player’s 2019 Australian Open odds as we lead up to the final on January 26th.
2019 Australian Open Women’s Singles Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Petra Kvitová | +125 |
| Naomi Osaka | +250 |
| Karolína Plíšková | +250 |
| Danielle Collins | +1100 |
Let’s take a closer look at both matchups.
Naomi Osaka vs Karolína Plíšková
Naomi Osaka vs Karolína Plíšková AO Semi-Finals Odds
| Player | Spread | Win | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karolína Plíšková | +2.0 (-130) | +120 | O 22.0 (-105) |
| Naomi Osaka | -2.0 (EVEN) | -145 | U 22.0 (-125) |
Naomi Osaka, the 21-year-old who most recently won the 2018 US Open, is into the semifinals of after defeating Elina Svitolina 6-4, 6-1.
After winning the first set, Osaka jumped out to a 5-0 lead in set two before Svitolina was able to win back one game. That was all the Ukrainian could manage as Osaka went on to close out the set 6-1 for a straight sets win.
Naomi Osaka takes the first set 64.
The World No.4 is on a 57-match win-streak when winning the 1st set. Her last loss came in 2016 Tianjin to Svetlana Kuznetsova.
More in the Live Blog: https://t.co/bNlRaeYPUD#AusOpen pic.twitter.com/9Ak30WqNzx
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) January 23, 2019
The match lasted just 72 minutes with Osaka producing eight aces to Svitolina’s one, while holding an edge in winners 31-11.
The quarters win over Svitolina was the third match Osaka won in straight sets in the AO. She did have close calls in both the Round of 32 and Round of 16 dropping first sets to Hsieh Su-wei and Anastasija Sevastova.
Osaka vs Plíšková Statistical Comparison
| 4 | WTA Ranking | 8 |
| 1 | Majors Wins | 1 |
| 35 | Aces | 34 |
| 71% | First Serve % Won | 71% |
| 24 | Break Pts Won | 25 |
| 4 | Double Faults | 2 |
Both Osaka and Karolína Plíšková have reached the semis of the AO for the first time in their careers. Plíšková had reached the quarters each of the past two years in Australia and has been coming on strong in major tournaments of late. She’s reached the quarters or semis in five of the past eight slams.
On Tuesday night Plíšková started strong against tournament favorite Serena Williams winning the first set 6-4. From there it was all Serena, as Williams won the second set 6-4 and had Plíšková at match point up 5-1 in the third set.
💪💪💪 She's done it!@KaPliskova saves four match points en route to a 6-4 4-6 7-5 victory over #Serena Williams. She's into the final 4!#GameSetMatch #AusOpen pic.twitter.com/txzmOmDggc
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 23, 2019
However, an apparent sprained ankle to Williams suddenly turned the tables back in Plíšková’s. favor. Plíšková survived four match points and won the final six games to win the third set 7-5.
Last year Plíšková defeated Osaka in the final in Tokyo, while Osaka won in the quarters at Indian Wells.
In a matchup between 2016 and 2018 US Open champs (Osaka/Plíšková), it’s the Czech who holds the head-to-head advantage at 2-1. Last year Plíšková defeated Osaka in the final in Tokyo, while Osaka won in the quarters at Indian Wells.
Much like Osaka, Plíšková has been money when winning the first set. She’s 15-0 in the Australian Open when doing so. Considering Plíšková played after Osaka, for nearly an hour longer and was moments away from being eliminated if not for a Serena injury, I’ll side with Osaka.
Petra Kvitová vs Danielle Collins
Petra Kvitová vs Danielle Collins AO Semi-Finals Odds
| Player | Spread | Win | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petra Kvitová | -5.0 (EVEN) | -375 | O 20.0 (-130) |
| Danielle Collins | +5.0 (-130) | +260 | U 20.0 (EVEN) |
Kvitová reaches the AO semis for the first time since 2012 and has looked unstoppable through five rounds. Her average odds have been shortening all tournament, down from +2000 earlier this month.
.@Petra_Kvitova is into her first Slam semifinal since a knife stabbing incident in late 2016 sidelined her from the sport.
Try not to tear up watching this 💕#AusOpen pic.twitter.com/qugNPgQrC6
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 22, 2019
The 28-year-old Czech and eighth seed in the tournament has yet to drop a set through five rounds. In fact, only twice has an opponent taken four games off her in a set.
The second time came during the quarterfinals against hometown favorite Ashleigh Barty. Kvitová silenced the crowd by taking the first set 6-1. Despite a closer second set of 6-4, Kvitová defeated Barty for the second time this year.
Kvitová vs Collins Statistical Comparison
| 6th | WTA Ranking | 35th |
| 2 | Majors Wins | 0 |
| 22 | Aces | 29 |
| 78% | First Serve % Won | 73% |
| 21 | Break Pts Won | 23 |
| 13 | Double Faults | 11 |
By far, the surprise entry in the semis is American Danielle Collins. The only remaining unranked player in the tournament, Collins is playing in her first Australian Open. Only turning pro in 2016 as she chose to complete university, the 25-year-old has limited experience in a major tournament so far.
In fact, she was 0-5 coming into the AO in previous Grand Slam events. She did win two NCAA titles and graduated in 2016 as the top-ranked collegiate player in America.
What a moment for Danielle #Collins! 🇺🇸💪
She's into her first Grand Slam semi-final, beating #Pavlyuchenkova 2-6 7-5 6-1.
Remember, she'd never won a single match at a slam before this tournament! #AusOpen pic.twitter.com/nHD6lJyy2B
— Live Tennis (@livetennis) January 22, 2019
2019 has been her coming out party, taking down 14th seed Julia Görges in the first round in three sets. Straight sets wins followed over Sachia Vickery, Caroline Garcia (19) and Angelique Kerber (2). After falling behind in the quarterfinals to fellow unranked opponent Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Collins won the next two sets to advance 2-6, 7-5, 6-1.
Kvitová and Collins have only played each other once and the match went over three hours.
Kvitová and Collins have only played each other once and the match went over three hours. That came earlier this month in Brisbane with Kvitová winning 6-7(6) 7-6(6) 6-3.
#AusOpen Final Four and the Battle for No.1 is truly on:
No.4 Naomi Osaka vs. No.8 Karolina Pliskova
No.6 Petra Kvitova vs. Danielle Collins
Osaka goes into the semifinals with the point lead for the No.1 ranking.
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) January 23, 2019
Earlier this week I spoke of the value in betting both Kvitová and Collins to win their quarterfinals matches. Having bet Kvitová prior to the tournament and also grabbing a piece of Collins in the quarters at +2800, I’m feeling good about either result. I’ll have to keep riding with the more experienced Kvitová.
And if you’ve taken action on Kvitová at any point during the AO, now as the favorite, this could be time to hedge your bet. I know I will be.
Best Bets: Osaka over Plíšková and Kvitová over Collins
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
