Camila Giorgi vs Jessica Pegula Odds & Prediction – WTA National Bank Open Semifinals

• The second women’s semi at the National Bank Open (6pm ET) features two unseeded players on a roll
• Camila Giorgi (No. 71) will meet Jessica Pegula (No. 30) in what is the biggest match of their careers
• The much lower-ranked Giorgi is the favorite – we break down the matchup below

One semifinal Saturday at the National Bank Open in Montreal went as planned: No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 4 seed Karolina Pliskova.

The second threw all pre-tournament prognostications out the window, as No. 71 Camila Giorgi takes on No. 30 Jessica Pegula in a battle of underdogs.

Giorgi is ranked far lower. And Pegula has a 3-1 career head-to-head against her. And yet, the Italian is the favorite.

Camila Giorgi vs Jessica Pegula Odds

Odds as of Aug. 14 at DraftKings

Comeback Kid Pegula Makes it Four Straight

As Pegula pointed out after yet another late-night comeback – this one a 1-6, 7-6 (4), 6-0 upset over No. 13 seed Ons Jabeur Friday night in the quarterfinals, she’s never won four straight three-set matches.

Never mind in the heat, humidity and wee hours.

Pegula has defeated Anett Kontaveit (ranked No. 29), No. 10 seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (No. 17), Danielle Collins (on a 12-match winning streak) and then Jabeur (No. 22).

That victory came 24 hours after she finished around 1:30am ET against Collins.

Pegula attributes this to will and determination. After a poor first set, she stayed the course. And it was the more excitable Jabeur who fell apart a little.

Giorgi Upsets Teenage Sensation Gauff

The Italian Giorgi has always been capable of beating anyone on the day.

But too often in her career it has gone awry, and she has gone down in a firestorm of unforced errors.

That hasn’t been the case this week.

She upset No. 9 seed Elise Mertens, then ran through Nadia Podoroska and No. 7 seed Petra Kvitova in straight sets.

In Gauff, she was facing a player who had competed for barely 90 minutes through her first three matches, after an injury retirement and a walkover.

But even fully match tough, it’s hard to see how the 17-year-old could have found a way past Giorgi, in the form she was in.

Overall, the Italian was just too good.

Camila Giorgi vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head

Match History Favors Pegula

If Giorgi is the favorite based on her form this week, she shouldn’t be, based on the history between the two.

It’s illustrative of how long both have been grinding that they’ve played just once in the last nine years.

Giorgi vs Pegula Match History

Their most recent meeting came in the final of Pegula’s one WTA title, in Washington, DC two years ago.

But those first three meetings came on the lower-level ITF circuit.

That was before knee and hip surgeries kept Pegula off the circuit for a period of several years.

The Good Old Days on the ITF Circuit

The Innisbrook tournament was a $25,000 event, Carson a $50,000 tournament. Their first meeting in Lutz, Fla. also was a $25,000 tournament, in which Pegula went from the qualifying to the final.  The American was ranked No. 874 at the time; Giorgi was at No. 324.

If Giorgi’s consistency bubble doesn’t burst, she will power her way through.

But it’s bound to burst, right? You don’t suddenly become a different player at age 29 — even if Giorgi attributes her consistency in recent weeks to the ability to play numerous events in a row, because she’s healthy.

Meanwhile, Pegula’s days of being underestimated are about over. And Giorgi is exactly the type of player she will let self-destruct on her own.

Even in their early matchups, that likely was the case.

Look at Giorgi to win the first set (at –135) but Pegula to come back and win the match (a long shot at +750, but worth the risk)

Best Bet: Pegula (+105)