Hugo Gaston vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Paris Masters Quarterfinals

• French qualifier Hugo Gaston is David and Daniil Medvedev is Goliath  in their Paris Masters quarterfinal
• World No. 2 Medvedev is still alive in the race for year-end No. 1 on the ATP Tour
• Read on as we recap Gaston’s crazy ride, break down the matchup and make a pick

No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev had to expect he would face 18-year-old prodigy Carlos Alcaraz in Friday’s Paris Masters quarterfinal at 2:30 pm ET.

Instead, he gets qualifier Hugo Gaston, who rode the wave of a raucous midnight crowd Thursday night to post a scarcely believable second-set comeback.

Medvedev will have to deal with the leftiness, the drop shots, the craftiness and the great wheels of the 21-year-old Frenchman.

And the partisan French crowd.

Hugo Gaston vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

Odds as of Nov. 5 at DraftKings

Gaston a Conquering Hero in Bercy

On Thursday night, in a match that began at nearly 11 pm (local time) against a home favorite, precious Spanish teenager Carlos Alcaraz fell apart.

A lot of that was Gaston, all 5-8 and 150 pounds of him. His old-school lefty junk and great court sense make him the type of underdog any crowd can get behind.

But at home, late at night, before a full house that wouldn’t leave their seats?

Quite the show.

https://twitter.com/GoldenViews00/status/1456404088170582025

And especially when he can do things like this.

L'effet Hugo Gaston !#RolexParisMasterspic.twitter.com/qY7V1s6Oro

— FFT (@FFTennis) November 4, 2021

After winning the first set, Gaston fell behind 0-5 in the second. He came all the way back with a huge assist from Alcaraz, winning 20 of the last 21 points and seven consecutive games to wrap it up.

It was insanity. And it is going to be extremely hard for Gaston to come back less than 24 hours later and not feel a letdown.

Also – he has to face a Grand Slam champion and the world No. 2.

Medvedev Overcomes Young Korda

As the opening act to the Gaston show, the 25-year-old Russian Medvedev overcame a slow start to win 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 against another 21-year-old, Sebastian Korda of the US.

Gaston is a different proposition entirely.

Medvedev has improved at the net during his rise. But the caveat is this: it’s true when he comes in of his own volition.

Improvising on the fly when he’s drawn in involuntarily still isn’t a thing he does well. And it’s a long way down from 6-6 to dig out drop shots on the run.

Hugo Gaston vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head

Gaston Riding a Wave

Gaston began the week in qualifying, beating high-quality players Kevin Anderson and Lorenzo Musetti.

His wins over world No. 17 Pablo Carreño Busta and Alcaraz – both in straight sets – have just given him more confidence.

But it’s been a steady rise. He began 2021 at No. 165. Regardless of the outcome Friday, he’ll be no worse than No. 80.

Medvedev the Underdog – With the Crowd

Friday’s night’s crowd will have a tough act to follow.

But one thing you can count on is that they will do everything to distract Medvedev.

Medvedev : "I know that if I'm playing vs. Hugo Gaston, the crowd will not back me and I have to deal with it. If I play vs. Alcaraz, I hope it can be 50-50." #RolexPMasters

— Tennis Majors (@Tennis_Majors) November 4, 2021

Medvedev’s French is fluent. He’ll be able to understand any trash talking the crowd might throw at him.

It might be Gaston’s only hope.

It’s tough enough to back up a win – a moment – such as he experienced Thursday. But Medvedev isn’t likely to be nearly as abashed and intimidated by the crowd as the 18-year-old rookie Alcaraz.

Medvedev might need a little time to suss Gaston out in their first-ever meeting. There is basically no one on the ATP Tour who brings a similar skill set to the table.

He will be highly motivated to shut down both the 21-year-old upstart – and the crowd – early on. And not let them back in.

And he knows how to deal with hostile crowds. He thrives on it.

It appears most people think Medvedev can do that. And so, those -1000 outright odds aren’t that attractive.

But there are other intriguing props.

Medvedev winning less than 12.5 games (i.e., not needing a tiebreak or a 7-5 to win either set) is at -175.

And the under 18.5 total games prop (+130) – i.e., a 6-3, 6-3 or 6-4, 6-2 Medvedev win – looks tempting as well.

Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev and -5.5 games (-105)