Jannik Sinner vs Mackenzie McDonald Odds & Prediction – Citi Open Finals
- The Citi Open final is the first ATP 500 level final for both Jannik Sinner and Mackenzie McDonald
- Sinner, who has two titles, reached the Miami Open Masters 1000 final in April – an even bigger event
- In McDonald’s first singles final of any kind at the ATP level, can he pull off the upset? We break it down
Jannik Sinner put away Jenson Brooksby, the sensation of the week in Washington, DC with relative ease in the Citi Open semifinals.
So how much trouble can 26-year-old Mackenzie McDonald, a strong underdog, really make for him in the the final ?(Sunday, Aug. 8, 5 pm EDT)
Mackenzie McDonald vs Jannik Sinner Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie McDonald (USA) | +3.5 (+110) | +320 | O 21.5 (+100) |
| [5] Jannik Sinner (ITA) | -3.5 (-135) | -425 | U 21.5 (-120) |
Odds as of Aug. 8 at DraftKings.
Sinner Saves Three Set Points, then Runs Away
The first set between 19-year-old Sinner and 20-year-old Jenson Brooksby on Saturday was neck-and neck – until Brooksby earned three set points at 5-6, love-40 on Sinner’s serve.
Through a combination of Brooksby’s errors and Sinner’s clutch serving, the Italian fended them off.
And through the first set tiebreak and a quick second set, he never looked back.
Sinner wasn’t fooled by Brooksby’s unorthodox game. Once he figured it out, he just responded to the slower pace with power. And he didn’t miss much.
For McDonald, a Marathon vs Nishikori
The battle of stylistic twins in the second Saturday semifinal between McDonald and veteran Kei Nishikori turned out to be much closer than many anticipated.
It went right down to the wire. McDonald edged out the Japanese star (the master of the marathon victories), 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 in two hours and 43 minutes.
Welcome to a first ATP final, @mackiemacster!
The 🇺🇸 outlasts Nishikori 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 to advance to a maiden title match.#CitiOpen 🎥 @tennistv pic.twitter.com/T3io7AqXjg
— Mubadala Citi DC Open (@mubadalacitidc) August 8, 2021
It took a lot out of him, likely leaving him a little short on energy for his first final.
“I think I learned from my experience last time. I wasn’t ready to play him. I was playing Kei more than the ball,” McDonald said afterwards “This time I say experience, the hard work I have put in and just my experiences this whole year helped me through.”
As he was running out of gas, McDonald went for a more. He might have to think about going to that gear much earlier on in the final, or Sinner will start yanking him around the court.
Mackenzie McDonald vs Jannik Sinner Head-to-Head
| 26 (April 16, 1995) | Age | 19 (Aug. 16, 2001) |
| Piedmont, CA | Birthplace | San Candido, Italy |
| 5-10 | Height | 6-2 |
| 0 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 2 |
| No. 57 (April 29, 2019) | Career High Ranking | No. 17 (May 17, 2021) |
| No. 107 | Current Ranking | No. 24 |
| $2,092,543 | Career Prize Money | $2,215,166 |
| 13-10 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 28-14 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
Sinner Sits Down the Phenom
It’s Sinner’s second big final of the year on American soil, after the Miami Open. He lost that one to Hubert Hurkacz of Poland.
The Italian worked on his serve over the break after an early exit at Wimbledon. And after ranking 74th on the ATP Tour in first-serve winning percentage over the last year (at 69.3 per cent), he has won 82 per cent of his first-serve points this week.
That’s a phenomenal stat – up there with the biggest servers in the game, although over a small sample size.
Sinner served lights out against Brooksby, because he had to. He came to the net more than usual, to disrupt Brooksby’s rhythm, because it was required. That tennis sense and clutch execution is why many people believe he will be a major champion.
It’s hot out here.. 🥵 pic.twitter.com/9cFWNcnjBv
— Jannik Sinner (@janniksin) August 2, 2021
The heat will be back on Sunday. But Sinner is prepared for that, too.
And he has been efficient this week. He hasn’t dropped a set, and he had a first-round bye.
Mackenzie McDonald vs Jannik Sinner Tournament Stats
| Stats | Jannik Sinner (4 Matches) | Mackenzie McDonald (5 Matches) |
|---|---|---|
| Aces/Double faults | 30 / 7 | 19 / 7 |
| Total time on Court (avg.) | 8h59 (1h48) | 5h54 (1h29) |
| No. of Sets Played | 12 | 8 |
| Winning % on First Serve | 174 / 239 (73%) | 100 / 122 (82%) |
| Winning % on Second Serve | 83 / 159 (52%) | 73 / 118 (62%) |
| Break points Converted | 18 / 49 (36.8%) | 11 / 21 (52.4%) |
| Break Points Saved | 8 / 12 (66.7%) | 8 / 12 (66.7%)8 / 11 (72.7%) |
What McDonald Must Do to Win
The American must be far more effective in converting break point chances. His 36.8 per cent success rate this week won’t be good enough.
He’ll have to be more aggressive than he’s usually comfortable with, to manage his energy on a hot day.
And he will have to battle the “first career final” nerves successfully.
It likely won’t be enough to hurt Sinner.
Best Bet: Sinner in Two Sets (-235)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
