Yoshihito Nishioka vs Nick Kyrgios Odds & Prediction – ATP Citi Open Final
- Nick Kyrgios is a big favorite against Yoshihito Nishioka in Sunday’s Citi Open singles final
- Nishioka shocked No. 1 Andrey Rublev in the semifinals Saturday.
- Below, see the Kyrgios vs Nishioka odds, picks, and best bets for the Citi Open final
Nick Kyrgios’s 2022 season has been a renaissance, as he’s (mostly) been engaged and competitive – if sometimes fiery – in most of his matches.
And so in Washington, D.C. this week, he’s in both the singles and doubles finals and is a heavy favorite to defeat fellow unseeded player Yoshihito Nishioka.
Nishioka vs Kyrgios Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshihito Nishioka (JPN) | +3.5 (+145) | +480 | O 22.5 (+120) |
| Nick Kyrgios (AUS) | -3.5 (-182) | -670 | U 22.5 (-150) |
Odds as of Aug. 7 at Barstool Sportsbook.
When he’s fully engaged, Kyrgios can beat the best in the world. But if his body often lets him down, he recovered beautifully from a late-night (early morning) marathon quarterfinal win over Frances Tiafoe that ended at nearly 1 a.m. Saturday
He returned that evening and took care of Sweden’s Mikael Ymer, 7-6 (4), 6-3 in just over an hour and a half. He fired 10 aces, with no double faults. And he actually had a better success rate with his second serve (79%) than his first (77%).
Ymer never had a sniff at a break point.
Then, Kyrgios and partner Jack Sock went out and won a delayed doubles quarterfinal in a match tiebreak over the French team of Mahut and Roger-Vasselin.
Nishioka vs Kyrgios Head-to-Head
| 26 (Sept. 27, 1995) | Age | 27 (April 27, 1995) |
| Mie, Japan | Birthplace | Canberra, Australia |
| 5-7 | Height | 6-4 |
| 1 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 6 |
| No. 48 (Feb. 24, 2020) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 13 (Oct. 24, 2016) |
| No. 96 | Current Ranking | No. 63 |
| $3,805,379 | Career Prize Money | $11,213,200 |
| 10-10 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 26-7 |
| 0 | Head-to-Head Wins | 4 |
Nishioka is a not-dissimilar player to Ymer in the sense that he’s not especially big, but he’s very speedy and consistent.
He’s also durable.
Exhausted after his marathon win over Dan Evans, Nishioka came out and took care of No. 1 seed Andrey Rublev in an hour and 20 minutes in his semifinal Saturday.
Nishioka saving Rublev from facing Kyrgios, remembering Miami I think it is for better…pic.twitter.com/z1waJqxJTQ
— Llama 𝕊𝕒𝕪𝕤 ☄🌠🚀 (@tennis_lol) August 7, 2022
Rublev has proven extremely tough to beat in ATP 500 tournaments. But not on this day; the Russian won just 31 per cent of points on his second serve.
That said, Rublev’s second serve is a demonstrable weakness; Kyrgios’s second serve is typically very, very difficult to get on top of.
Kyrgios Dominating Almost Every category
How dominant has Kyrgios been through this week at the Citi Open?
He leads Nishioka in almost every statistical category. Both have played five matches, and Kyrgios has yet to be broken. Nishioka has had 40 break points against his serve.
Citi Open Match Statistics
| 12 | Aces | 84 |
| 62.95% | 1st Serve Percentage | 68.5% |
| 64.53% | 1st Serve Points Won | 82.28% |
| 57.05% | 2nd Serve Points Won | 59.63% |
| 77.42% | Service Games Won | 100% |
| 26/40 (65%) | Break Points Saved | 9/9 (100%) |
| 60.48% | Points Won Against 2nd Serve | 46.81% |
| 31.75% | Return Games Won | 20.37% |
| 20/39 (51.28%) | Break Points Converted | 11/23 (47.83%) |
Where Nishioka has been better is in his percentage of return games won. Kyrgios has won about 20 per cent of them; Nishioka has done much better at nearly 32 per cent.
Kyrgios authored the two shortest matches of the week. Meanwhile, Nishioke sweated through the three of the four longest of the week (statistics courtesy of the ATP – click here for the full report).
Kyrgios vs Nishioka Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Washington D.C. (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 7-5 | Kyrgios |
| 2018 | Tokyo (R32) | Indoor Hard | 7-5, 7-6 (3) | Kyrgios |
| 2016 | Atlanta (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 | Kyrgios |
| 2014 | Savannah Challenger (R16) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-2 | Kyrgios |
Kyrgios’ record against Nishioka has been pretty comprehensive. And they’ve met twice during this time of the year, in the heat and humidity of the southern U.S.
Both of those times – in Atlanta in 2016, and in Washington three years ago – Kyrgios defeated Nishioka and then won the entire tournament.
You’d expect the same on Sunday.
Looking for Prop Value and Upset Payoffs
With the odds so heavily in Kyrgios favour, though, it’s time to look at some of the other props that can have betting value.
Kyrgios and -3.5 games is at -182.
The odds there will be at least one tiebreak are +130.
But, given what Nishioka did to Rublev yesterday, and the fact that the Aussie must be physically and mentally exhausted by now (and ripe for a meltdown, because the plucky Nishioka is going to have plenty of support), the odds are +1050 for the Japanese lefty to pull off a straight-set shocker.
A total under 20.5 games is at +130.
Best Bet: Kyrgios in Two Sets (-186)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
