Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud Odds & Prediction – ATP Finals Round Robin

• Five-time ATP Finals champion Novak Djokovic hasn’t won the year-end event since 2015
• He opens on Monday (8 a.m. ET) against Casper Ruud, the first-time qualifier from Norway
• Read on for match analysis and predictions
  

Novak Djokovic, who has won the ATP FInals five times but not since 2015, said the other day that it could be that those for whom it was a newer, fresher experience were arriving with more motivation in recent years.

The 34-year-old finds himself the elder statesman of the event without his fellow “Big 3” members on hand. Everyone else is between 22 and 25 years old.

So the kids have taken over, and the kids are all right.

Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud Odds

Odds as of Nov. 14 at DraftKings

Breakthrough Season for Finals Freshman

At 22, Casper Ruud is the youngest of the elite eight for 2022.

At six feet even, he’s also the only one shorter than Djokovic and Andrey Rublev (at 6-2). They’re surrounded by giants.

Only five years ago, none of these players were at the ATP Finals except for Djokovic.

A new generation has taken over, yet Djokovic’s dominance remains all the same.

The Don. pic.twitter.com/MGeYroHofT

— Yousef (@ymanna3) November 12, 2021

And unlike the others, the Norwegian has made most of his bank in 2021 on the slower red clay.

That’s why he’s at the bottom of the list, in terms of his pre-tournament odds of winning it all.

Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud Head-to-Head

Five Tournament Titles – All but One on Clay

Ruud decided to go back to the clay after Wimbledon. And during a period of the season in which the top guns don’t play the clay, or took a break, or prepped for the Olympics, he ran the table at a series of three ATP 250 events: Bastad, Gstaad and Kitzbuhel.

The only opponent in the top 75 that he faced during that 12-0 run was No. 49, the mercurial Benoit Paire.

But all that winning has meant bringing confidence into the fall hard courts. And he’s fast enough, and talented enough, that he will eventually manage success on all surfaces.

His hard-court win rate was below 50 percent coming into 2021. This year, it’s at nearly 70 percent.

Ruud defeated four excellent opponents (Murray, Sonego, Dimitrov and Norrie) to win a hard-court event in San Diego the week before the rescheduled Indian Wells event last month. Norrie ended up winning Indian Wells.

On the indoor circuit, he made the quarterfinals in Vienna and at the Paris Masters.

All of which to say: he’s already pretty good.

But he’s not in the same league as the rest of the field.

How is Djokovic’s Form?

Djokovic spent seven weeks away from the Tour to rest and recharge after the devastating loss in the US Open final.

The Serb was looking to win the rare calendar Grand Slam – all four major titles in one calendar year. He was denied by Daniil Medvedev.

He came back at the Paris Masters two weeks ago. If rusty at the start, he left with the title.

Djokovic squeaked past fellow ATP Finals qualifier Hubert Hurkacz in a third-set tiebreak in the semis and avenged (sort of) his US Open loss to Medvedev in the final.

With no Asian swing, Djokovic is fresher than in recent years as he begins his quest for No. 6 in Turin, Italy.

Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud Match History

Ruud Without the Tools for Victory

The draw for group play worked out fairly for Djokovic. He has Ruud and two of the least-form players in Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rublev with him in the Green Group.

And he starts with the least accomplished of them all.

Ruud doesn’t serve hard enough to truly trouble the best returner in the world. And while his consistency and movement on the court are outstanding, they’re also not as good as those of Djokovic.

And the Serb wins hands-down on experience, match tactics and comfort level with the magnitude of the event.

It should be a routine opening win for the five-time champion. Given he is likely to win in straight sets, the under 12.5 games is the best bet.

Best Bet: Djokovic in less than 12.5 games (-105)