Tour de France Odds, Preview and Predictions 2023
- The 110th Tour de France begins Saturday, July 1, in Bilbao, Spain
- Last year’s winner, Jonas Vingegaard, and two-time champ Tadej Pogacar are the heavy favorites
- See the 2023 Tour de France odds, picks, and best bets
In 2021 COVID-19 changed the timing of the Tour de France. Tadej Pogacar’s dramatic come-from-behind win shocked the racing world when he overcame Primoz Roglic in a mountain time trial on Stage 20. Pogacar repeated in 2021, but last year he was upset by Jonas Vingegaard. Pogacar and Vingegaard are getting all of the attention prior to Saturday’s start of the Tour. Is one of the two a lock to win, or could we get a high priced longshot when the riders reach the Champs-Élysées on July 23?
Let’s examine the latest odds in the general classification, along with the podium-finish and top-ten odds.
2023 Tour de France Odds
| Rider (Team) | Yellow Jersey Odds | Odds to Finish in Top 3 | Odds to Finish in Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) | +110 | -370 | -390 |
| Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) | +110 | -290 | -390 |
| Jai Hindley (BORA – hansgrohe) | +1600 | +200 | -290 |
| Mattias Skjelmose (Trek–Segafredo) | +2900 | +750 | +100 |
| Enric Mas Nicolau (Movistar) | +3000 | +650 | -145 |
| Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën) | +3400 | +500 | -240 |
| David Gaudu (Groupama – FDJ) | +3700 | +1000 | -195 |
| Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) | +4500 | +650 | -125 |
| Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla) | +4500 | +900 | +110 |
| Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) | +5500 | +1600 | +110 |
| Daniel Martinez (INEOS Grenadiers) | +7000 | +1600 | +150 |
| Mikel Landa (Bahrain – Victorious) | +7000 | +1100 | -145 |
| Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers) | +7000 | +1600 | -125 |
| Romain Bardet (Team DSM – Firmenich) | +7000 | +1400 | -240 |
| Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën) | +8000 | +1600 | +175 |
| Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers) | +8000 | +2300 | +300 |
| Wilco Kelderman (Jumbo-Visma) | +8000 | +2900 | +300 |
| Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers) | +8000 | +2900 | +200 |
| Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) | +10000 | +3400 | +1600 |
| Juan Pedro Lopez (Trek–Segafredo) | +10000 | +10000 | +1100 |
| Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal – Quick Step) | +10000 | +2300 | +750 |
| Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma) | +10000 | +4500 | +750 |
Vingegaard and Pogacar come into the 2023 TDF as co-favorites in the Yellow Jersey odds, both sitting at +110. Third-favorite Jai Hindley is a distant +1600, which is still significantly shorter than fourth-favorite Mattias Skjelmose. In other words, oddsmakers view the 2023 Tour de France as a two-man race from the outset.
Odds as of June 28th, 2023, at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel Sportsbook promo to bet on the 2023 Tour de France.
There will be no easing into this year’s Tour. Stage 1 offers 3,300m of climbing, and it is a harbinger of what’s to come. There is but one short individual time trial on a course that is tilted heavily towards climbing. It is almost like organizers set-up the three weeks to be a mano a mano fight between the two clear favorites.
Some thought exists that Vingegaard benefited last year because his team, Jumbo–Visma, was stronger than Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates. In reality both squads suffered big loses during the race. Regardless, UAE has beefed up the roster this time around.
When all the hype is focused on two riders, it sure does provide some ample odds on other excellent cyclists. It takes only a single mistake or some misfortune to change the race dramatically. Furthermore, if you study the Top 3 and Top 10 odds, there are some opportunities in those pools. Let’s look carefully at the favorites, and who else can make their name heard on the road to Paris.
Defending Champ
During the 2022 Tour de France it seemed like fans were waiting for half the race. Waiting for strong favorite and two time defending champ Tadej Pogacar to assert his dominance. While he was better than the huge majority of the field, Jonas Vingegaard would simply not relent.
Vingegaard beat Pogacar by two minutes, and 44 seconds, and nobody else finished within seven minutes of the front. Vingegaard cracked Pogacar on Stage 11, and that was it. Vingegaard was his equal the rest of the way, never yielding or ever seeming like he was in trouble.
This year Vingegaard has been excellent. He won three stage at O Gran Camiño, three more at Itzulia Basque Country, and took a pair at the Critérium du Dauphiné. He finished third, behind Pogacar and David Gaudu at Paris–Nice.
Vingegaard’s overall victory at the Critérium du Dauphiné included the largest winning margin in 36 years. He enters the Tour in outstanding form.
How Healthy is Pogacar?
If you think Vingegaard has had a good 2023, Pogacar was going as good or better up until April 23 when he fractured his wrist at Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
Pogacar won Jaén Paraíso Interior, took three stages at Ruta del Sol, three more at Paris-Nice, and added first place trophy’s at the Tour of Flanders, Amstel Gold Race, and La Flèche Wallonne.
Pogacar returned to competition following the injury by winning the Slovenian National Time Trial on June 22. There is no way to know how healthy he is, but he claims he is ready to go. Would you doubt the rider who had been the best in the sport over the past three years?
Longshots to Bet at the 2023 Tour de Frnace
Pogacar was a decent price when he surprised the field three years ago. Who could provide an upset this time around?
Jai Hindley is making his Tour debut after winning the Giro d’Italia last season. He is in good form after finishing fourth in the Critérium du Dauphiné.
Gaudu was fourth at the Tour last year. For a second straight season he did not have a great go of it at the Critérium du Dauphiné, but he was second in Paris-Nice.
Enric Mas was fifth in the 2020 Tour, and sixth in 2021. Last year he failed to finish because of COVID-19 protocols. Three times he has been the runner up in the Vuelta a España including each of the last two years. He did not have the best Critérium du Dauphiné this year.
Like Hindley, the climbing forward course may be helpful for Ben O’Connor. He was fourth at the Tour two years ago, but last year tore a glute and abandoned after issues on a cobbled stage. He finished third at the Critérium du Dauphiné, and is in excellent form.
Last decade Team Ineos, for most of the time called Team Sky, dominated the Tour. This year it is unclear what their plan is. Egan Bernal won the tour in 2019, and is back after a horrifying crash last year, but has spent a lot more time rehabbing than preparing of late. On paper Daniel Martínez is their leader, but his form since winning the Volta ao Algarve in February is poor. Carlos Rodríguez could have an opportunity. Tom Pidcock seems like the team’s future. If they coalesced around a single rider, Ineos has a lot of resources.
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
