Charlatan Now 4-1 Odds to Win Kentucky Derby; Prop Favors Charlatan, Authentic, Nadal & Tiz The Law vs Field
- The re-scheduled Kentucky Derby is now four months away
- Saturday’s two divisions of the Arkansas Derby have made the favorites more clear
- There is value to be had by not overreacting. Read on for our early predictions
It is really odd to be previewing the Kentucky Derby in the aftermath of the first Saturday in May. This year is different. The Kentucky Derby will be run in September, and instead of discussing the likelihood of the Derby winner triumphing at the Preakness in two weeks, we continue to look forward to the fastest two minutes in sports.
Instead of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, we had two editions of the Arkansas Derby. Bob Baffert’s Charlatan romped in the first race and is now the Kentucky Derby favorite. Baffert’s Nadal won the second edition and sits as the third choice in futures wagering.
After major prep races the odds tend to change, and indeed adjustments have been made in 2020 Kentucky Derby odds. Additionally, there is now a wager available pitting the four horses with the lowest odds against the field. Let’s look at the odds for the most likely winners and consider some of our best options.
2020 Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Charlatan | +400 |
| Tiz The Law | +500 |
| Nadal | +600 |
| Authentic | +700 |
| Maxfield | +1600 |
| Excession | +2000 |
| Mischevious Alex | +2000 |
| Ete Indien | +2500 |
| Honor A.P. | +2500 |
| King Guillermo | +2500 |
| Mr Monomoy | +2500 |
| NY Traffic | +2800 |
| Shivaree | +2800 |
| Basin | +3300 |
| Gouverneur Morris | +3300 |
| Independence Hall | +3300 |
| Max Player | +3300 |
| Sole Volante | +3300 |
| Wells Bayou | +3300 |
Odds taken May 4
Favorites: Charlatan, Tiz The Law, Nadal, Authentic
There simply is no questioning what Charlatan has done in three races. He hasn’t faced monster competition, but wow, every challenge has been answered without a doubt including Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.
Tiz The Law is a New York-bred who has the same connections as 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. He has four wins in five starts and closed March with his most impressive victory in the Curlin Stakes.
The Arkansas Derby had two division’s on Saturday. While Charlatan cruised against the weaker draw, Nadal was very impressive beating the tougher competition. He is four for four and there just isn’t a lot to knock.
Because Authentic didn’t run in either Arkansas Derby, a third big-time contender from Baffert’s barn is being downgraded to a degree. He is three for three but has never left California. Don’t think that in any way he is Baffert’s “third” choice.
Contenders: Maxfield, Honor AP, Mr Monomoy
It is simply a different year for Kentucky Derby contenders. You didn’t need to earn a huge number of qualifying points in a limited window since the race got pushed back. That allows for patience and growth. Maxfield has run just twice, but he is working out in Kentucky and expected to run at Churchill Downs in the next month or so. He sure looked good when last seen in October.
We believe there is value in the forgotten. Those who haven’t run recently and are not on people’s minds. Honor AP ran a pretty strong second to Authentic in the San Felipe Stakes. He is working out in LA and is expected to try the Santa Anita Derby, assuming it is run as scheduled on June 6.
One longshot to consider is the Brad Cox trained Mr Monomoy. Horses can take big strides as three-year-olds and Mr Monomoy looked like a Derby horse when he won the Risen Star Stakes in February.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlPaoLY5FJU&t=3s
2020 Kentucky Derby Favorites vs The Field Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Charlatan, Tiz The Law, Nadal, Authentic | -200 |
| All Other Horses (Field) | +150 |
A -200 price equates to an implied probability of 66.6%, two-thirds. Let’s be clear, one or two of these horses will get hurt or not look good over the next several months. That said, you get three of Baffert’s best plus the most likely other horse. If the race were run on June 1, these horses would have an 80% chance of winning or better. While they look like the best bets now, our gut is to take 3/2 and the field. In a worst-case scenario you have 16 chances to beat them in September, and we’ve watched racing too long to think what looks like a certainty now will even be a likely result then.
The Bet: Honor AP
This was our choice when we looked at options in March, and the bottom line is it is still too early to take a short number. Honor AP has done nothing wrong and we appreciate the patience of his management. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith very much pushed to ride this horse, and we suspect his odds will be closer to 10/1 in the near future. We love value at this stage in the game.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
