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2019 Big East Conference Tournament Odds: Villanova Favored Over Slumping Marquette

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in College Basketball

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 12:01 PM PDT

Presumptive Big East Player of the Year Markus Howard and the Marquette Golden Eagles have lost four straight entering the Big East tournament. Photo by Twitter user @FitMessGuys.
  • Villanova (22-9, 13-5) won the Big East regular-season title
  • The Wildcats have won 3 of the last 4 conference tournaments, as well
  • Marquette (23-8, 12-6) has never won the Big East tournament since joining in 2005

If March Madness is the main course, then the conference tournament slate is one fantastic appetizer.

Sportsbooks have released odds for the upcoming Big East tournament (Mar. 13th-16th, Madison Square Garden, NY) and both have Villanova favored over a Marquette team that’s mired in a brutal slump.

2019 Big East Tournament Odds

Big East Conference Tournament Odds
Villanova +225
Marquette +250
Creighton +550
Seton Hall +750
Xavier +900
Georgetown +1000
St. John’s +1000
Butler +1600
Providence +2200
DePaul +5000

*odds taken 3/11; higher payouts in bold. 

2019 Big East Tournament Bracket

Of all the conference tournaments, the Big East may be the most exciting.  Only two of the ten teams finished over .500 in conference play and none of the teams finished worse than 7-11.  If we’ve learned anything from the last few years of tournament play, parity equals excitement.

With that in mind, let’s take a deep dive to find where the value is with this futures bet.

Odds to Win March Madness 2025: NCAA Men’s Tournament Futures Tracker
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Despite the relative equality throughout the conference standings, either Villanova or Marquette should emerge with the tournament title.

They are the only two Big East teams ranked in the top-30 at KenPom (26th and 29th, respectively) and, based on how the bracket is structured, they will both get a tired opponent in the quarterfinals. That gives them a sizable advantage.

2019 Big East conference tournament bracket.
2019 Big East conference tournament bracket.

The #7-#11 seeds all have to win four games instead of three in order to capture the Big East crown, while the #3-#6 seeds all face veritable toss-ups in the quarterfinals.

Who is the better value between the top-two seeds?

Recency Bias Working Against Marquette

The last time four times we have seen Marquette play, they  have blown a second-half lead of at least five points. They only need to win one of those final four games in order to share the Big East title with top-seeded Villanova.

Their 73-64 loss to Seton Hall was particularly egregious. Seton Hall isn’t a terrible opponent and losing to the Pirates on the road is completely understandable, but it’s not the result that sticks in people’s minds, but rather how it happened.

Marquette led by as many as 13 in the second half and had a nine-point lead with less than five minutes to play. Then they surrendered an 18-0 run to lose by nine.

They still could have shared the Big East regular-season title with a win over Georgetown at home in the finale, and that looked to be in the bag again with Marquette leading by eight in the second half. But another ice-cold finish saw the Hoyas storm back to win by two (86-84).

There are two ways to look at the Golden Eagles’ awful finish to the season.

The obvious one is, why would I want to bet on a team capable of sleep walking their way to the finish of crucial games?

That’s a reasonable take, but I’m choosing to be happy with the value it provided.

Prior to their final two losses of the year, Marquette was ranked 10th in the AP poll. Now they’ve fallen like a rock.

Their inability to close games is certainly concerning, but it also masks the fact that they opened up big leads against all those opponents. If you sprinkled those losses throughout the schedule instead of lumping them together in the most recent games, Marquette may be viewed as the team to beat in the Big East.

They are the most balanced group (top-40 at KenPom in both offensive and defensive efficiency) and they are the only team in the conference with a winning record away from home (6-4).

Big East Tournament Past Champions

Big East Tournament Championships Year
Villanova Wildcats 2018
Villanova Wildcats 2017
Seton Hall Pirates 2016
Villanova Wildcats 2015
Providence Friars 2014

Traditionally, the public likes betting on something they’ve seen before. In this case, that would be a Villanova Wildcats Big East Tournament Championship.

One thing you’ll notice is Marquette doesn’t appear in the list of recent champions, and they haven’t won the conference tournament in the 14 years in the league.

Knowing the public will fade a team that’s never proven capable of winning, the odds on Marquette may get longer and provide even more value.

As mentioned, the reality is that Marquette is the most complete team in the conference.  Markus Howard is a college superstar averaging 25.0 points per game and the Hauser brothers (Sam and Joey) provide great second and third options offensively.

Fade the favorites and take the value in betting Marquette and its crop of talented scorers at +250.

Big East Value Bet: Marquette (+250)

SBD’s NCAA conference tournament coverage:

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