McDermott Overtakes Shanahan as Favorite to Win NFL Coach of the Year
- Buffalo’s Sean McDermott is now favored to win NFL Coach of the Year
- The Bills are 10-4, the first time they have reached double-digit wins since 1999
- Kyle Shanahan, whose San Francisco 49ers already have seven more wins that last season, is second in the odds
The Buffalo Bills’ Sean McDermott has overtaken the San Francisco 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan to win NFL Coach of the Year honors.
2019 NFL AP Coach of the Year Odds
| Coach | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sean McDermott (Bills) | +200 |
| Kyle Shanahan (49ers) | +275 |
| John Harbaugh (Ravens) | +400 |
| Pete Carroll (Seahawks) | +900 |
| Matt LaFleur (Packers) | +900 |
| Sean Payton (Saints) | +1200 |
| Andy Reid (Chiefs) | +1200 |
| Bill Belichick (Patriots) | +2000 |
| Mike Tomlin (Steelers | +2000 |
Odds taken Dec. 17.
At 10-4, the Bills are playoff-bound and one of the biggest surprises in the league this season after going 6-10 a year ago.
That McDermott’s odds improved from +400 last week to +200 this week is indicative of the respect he is gaining among oddsmakers.
Shining in the Spotlight
The Bills also gained another measure of respect with a 17-10 victory over the Steelers on Sunday night. The game was flexed by NBC from early Sunday afternoon and marked the Bills’ first appearance on Sunday Night Football since 2007.
FINAL: The @BuffaloBills improve to 10-4! #BUFvsPIT #GoBIlls
(by @Lexus) pic.twitter.com/rVRPMQjP34
— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2019
The Bills have clinched a postseason berth for the second time in three years and have already secured their first 10-win season since 1999.
Buffalo went 9-7 in McDermott’s first season in 2017 before losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card round. However, that playoff spot had a fluky feel to it. The Bills needed many things to break their way to get in, and they finished the regular season with a -57 point difference.
This year, they have a +69 scoring differential and own wins over three potential playoff teams (Tennessee, Dallas, Pittsburgh).
Creating a Better Culture
McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane have remade the roster. Just 12 players remain from the ’17 team that ended the Bills’ 17-year playoff drought.
Sean McDermott has now led the Bills to the playoffs twice in his first 3 seasons.
Wade Phillips, Gregg Williams, Mike Mularkey, Dick Jauron, Chan Gailey, Doug Marrone, and Rex Ryan led Buffalo to the playoffs 0 times in the previous 17 seasons, since 2000. pic.twitter.com/N5hywf3YZE
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 16, 2019
Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, who was on that 2017 team, says much has changed off the field, too.
“Before Sean got here, it was a culture of losing,” Alexander said. “You have to intentionally and methodically change the concept of `Oh, here it goes again,’ or `We expect to lose.’ But it takes time.”
Willingness to Make Changes
McDermott has also shown a willingness for his staff to make in-season strategic changes.
Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has taken the wraps off his defense and is now using more blitzes and rushing more players. That has resulted in 10 takeaways in the last five games after forcing just 11 turnovers in the first nine.
The @BuffaloBills defense seals the win! #BUFvsPIT #GoBills pic.twitter.com/hptprq1tgy
— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2019
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has added more no-huddle as the season has gone on. The Bills are averaging 23.4 points in their last five games after scoring 19.3 in their first nine.
Showdown With Pats On Tap
The Bills still have an outside shot at stealing the AFC East from the New England Patriots (11-3). Buffalo needs to win its last two games and the Patriots lose twice. The Bills can take care of half the equation in Week 16 when they visit Foxborough. But history is against Buffalo as it has lost 35 of its last 39 games against New England and the Patriots are six-point favorites. (Additionally, New England visits the 3-11 Miami Dolphins in Week 17.)
Would a Week 16 loss ding McDermott’s chances of winning Coach of the Year? Only if the Bills are blown out, which is not a likely outcome. New England eked out a 16-10 victory on Sept. 29 at Buffalo in the first meeting between the teams this season. New England’s offense has been abysmal of late. From Week 10 to Week 14, the Pats averaged just 17.4 PPG. While they scored 34 against the Bengals last Sunday, that was thanks to five takeaways, including one pick-six. They were outgained 315-291 by Cincinnati.
If the Bills don’t hand the Patriots the game like the Bengals did, this should be a close contest that only bolsters McDermott’s COY resume.
Shanahan Still Strong Candidate
The favorite last week, Shanahan is now the second choice at +275. Yet he still has a decent chance of being named Coach of the Year.
The 49ers have an 11-3 record that is tied with the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks for the best in the NFC. That already marks a seven-win improvement over last year when San Francisco went 4-12 after losing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to an early-season knee injury.
If they beat the Rams at home in Week 16 and the Seahawks on the road in Week 17, they will finish with the top seed in the NFC.
The Pick
At the current odds, McDermott and Shanahan don’t provide much value. If forced to choose, I’d go with Shanahan at +275.
However, it might be wise to put at least a small wager on the Packers’ Matt LaFleur at +900. The Packers have more wins than last season when they went 6-9-1 and longtime coach Mike McCarthy was fired with four games remaining.
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
