Trump’s Odds of Winning 2020 Republican Nomination Best They’ve Ever Been
- Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2020 Republican Party Presidential nomination are better than ever
- His chances improved from from -350 on Jan. 3 to -680 on April 18
- Trump launched his 2020 re-election campaign in January 2017
Four more years of Republican Donald Trump in the White House? While that’s far from guaranteed, it seems a virtual lock that Trump will be the party’s nominee in the 2020 Presidential election.
Thursday’s release of the Mueller Report didn’t connect the dots confirming that Trump conspired with Russia to meddle in the 2016 Presidential election, and Trump’s odds of being the 2020 Republican Presidential candidate have skyrocketed.
On Jan. 3, Trump’s odds of running again were at -350 on average across a number of top sportsbooks. As of April 18, those odds had dropped to -680. That’s the best chance he’s been given of maintaining the nod.
2020 US Presidential Election Republican Candidate Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -750 |
| Mike Pence | +1400 |
| Nikki Haley | +1600 |
| John Kasich | +2000 |
| Paul Ryan | +2200 |
*Odds taken on April 19, 2019.
The last sitting President who didn’t run for a second term was Democrat Lyndon Jonnson in 1968. Calvin Coolidge, in 1928, was the last incumbent Republican President who didn’t stand for a second term.
The Only Thing Republicans Have To Fear . . . Is Trump
As Trump continues to take strides toward changing the US to a more authoritarian style of government, he rules over the Republican Party with equal parts terror, fear and resignation.
Trump’s base of support never wavers. They stay with him no matter what is learned about how the man operates within the walls of the White House. Lying? Cheating? A complete and utter lack of a moral compass? Even as evidence of it all is presented in public, none of it ever seems to matter to his ardent supporters.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 18, 2019
He boasts that the Mueller Report exonerated him of obstruction of justice, when in fact the document does exactly the opposite. And yet Trump’s base eats it up and parrots this fake news.
It’s this tribal, almost cult-like following of Trump’s base that scares off any Republican of significance from seriously challenging him.
Would Impeachment Matter?
With a Republican-controlled Senate, the idea that Trump could be convicted of impeachment in Congress isn’t going to happen. But there is a school of thought that the Democratic-controlled House should still introduce the articles of impeachment.
I think we’ll probably see impeachment at the strategically correct time. Critical mass should arrive within a month or two. But chew on this hypothetical: would you rather have no impeachment and then a democrat wins in 2020, or a botched impeachment and Trump wins in 2020?
— Palmer Report (@PalmerReport) April 19, 2019
The belief among those who back this plan is that through the course of the investigation and testimony, evidence of Trump’s misdeeds could turn the tide against him.
But that’s also the impact they thought the Mueller report would create.
Trump Remains Unchallenged
No Republican of note has thrown their hat in the ring for 2020, and it’s doubtful any will.
Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld announced his candidacy April 15. Trump will be the first sitting President to face a Primary challenger since Ted Kennedy took on Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Kennedy failed, and so will Weld, or anyone else who dares come forward.
The 2020 Presidential election is going to be Trump’s to win . . . or lose.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
