Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution Odds & Preview: MLS Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals

• The Columbus Crew will host the New England Revolution in the MLS Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday, December 6, 2020
• Columbus is undefeated in their past four matches against New England
• See the odds for this Conference Finals match along with our preview and best bet below

The East’s third seed will host the conference’s eighth seed when the Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution goes down in the MLS Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference Semifinals on Sunday, December 6, 2020, at 3:00 pm EST.

One streak will have to end this weekend when these teams meet. The Revolution are undefeated at 4-3-0 against the Crew in the MLS Cup Playoffs. However, the Crew have not lost at home to the Revs since 2014.

Now down to four teams remaining the odds for each to win the MLS Cup are +200 (Columbus) and +300 (New England). However, had you got in early, way early like myself February, there were odds of +3300 and +2500 or more on each respectively.

Let’s break down this Eastern Conference Finals matchup between Columbus and New England and provide a best bet for the match.

Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution Odds

All odds taken Dec 4 at Bet365

Crew End Nashville’s First Season in MLS

Columbus ended the regular season on a high after defeating Atlanta United on Decision Day. In Round One they edged past the New York Red Bulls 3-2, but, were leading 3-1 until a Red Bulls’ stoppage-time goal.

On Sunday they hosted the expansion Nashville SC in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in what resulted in a hard-fought 2-0 win. Despite the shut-out on the scoresheet, Columbus was held scoreless until Pedro Santos finally broke the deadlock in the 99′ minute. The Crew were able to double their lead and put the match away when Zyasi Zardes scored four minutes later.

Columbus has now won four of their past five matches overall and will be buoyed by the fact they’ve been strong at MAPFRE Stadium all season. They’ve lost just once on their home pitch this year, a 2-1 loss to Montreal back on October 7.

Bou, Gil Power Revs Past Lions

New England didn’t enter the playoffs in top form with just one win in five matches and a 2-0 Decision Day loss to Philadelphia which secured the Supporters’ Shield for the Union.

But in the playoffs, Bruce Arena’s Revolution haven’t missed a step and have now won three-straight matches. Their opening Play-In round match against Montreal was moments from heading to extra-time until Gustavo Bou netted the winner in the 95′ minute.

Then in Round One, the Revolution were dealt a rematch with the Union, a team they had failed to beat in five meetings in the regular season. Two first-half goals four minutes apart and both assisted by Carles Gil was enough to claim a 2-0 win and advance to the Conference Semifinals.

On Sunday it was another quick flurry of goals in the first half which proved enough to send New England into the Conference Finals. Gil opened the scoring with a 17′ minute penalty, and Bou would add to the lead eight minutes later putting in a rebound off the woodwork.

Orlando was quick to cut the lead back to one through a Junior Orso goal just minutes later. But, the score would remain 2-1 until the 86′ minute when Bou scored the second of the game to seal the win. The Lions didn’t make things easy on themselves as they once again were reduced to ten men in the 60′ minute when Mauricio Pereyra received a red card. Despite this, the Lions fought hard and had a golden opportunity to draw level, but Nani was stopped on a PK by Matt Turner in the 74′ minute.

Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution Stats

With condensed scheduling, this will be the first meeting between the two teams in 2020. However, Columbus should have some confidence in knowing that they are undefeated in their past four against New England. The Crew won 1-0 at home and 2-0 away with the Revs last year. In the 2018 season, they won 1-0 away and the teams drew 2-2 in Columbus.

That 2-2 result was one of the few higher scoring affairs between the two. In their past eight head-to-heads a clean sheet and UNDER 2.5 total goals has occurred six times. Columbus is also 6-1-1 in those eight meetings.

Crew vs Revolution Advanced Stats

When we break down a few advanced stats from Fbref, we can see that New England applies some of the most pressure defensively in the league. They rank sixth in pressures—third in middle third pressures and sixth in attacking third pressures.

The Crew applies much less pressure ranking 25th. Yet both teams play physically in the middle of the field ranking sixth (CLB) and ninth (NE) in middle third tackles.

"Bruce doesn't accept anything but winning."@jeff_lemieux spoke with @TaylorTwellman ahead of this weekend's conference final on @ABC about Bruce, DPs and more!

— New England Revolution (@NERevolution) December 4, 2020

When each team has the ball, they both rank top ten in middle third and attacking third touches and Columbus is a league-best first in successful dribbling percentage at 66.5-percent. New England are no slouches themselves in that category in tenth.

However, when it comes to tackling dribblers, the Revs may struggle to keep up with the Crew as they rank 25th in percentage of dribblers tackled at 30.4-percent, while the Crew are mid-pack at 15th.

Two steps to win it all.#To96ther | #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/Fo80c6huYz

— The Crew (@ColumbusCrew) December 4, 2020

From a totals perspective, New England has gone 2-1 to OVER 2.5 totals in the postseason. However, their expected goals (xG) have read 1.9, 0.9 and 2.1. Their opponent’s expected goals against (xGA) have read 0.3, 0.9 and 1.7.

Columbus has only played twice in the postseason and are 1-1 in 2.5 goal totals. But their xGs are 1.9 and 1.9. Their opponent’s xGAs have read 1.4 and 0.9.

All of these figures seem to point towards a tight, low-scoring match.

Odds and Best Bets

This is a tough one to call with each team having experienced coaching staffs in Caleb Porter and Bruce Arena and stingy defenses.

The 21 goals Columbus allowed on the year was second-best in MLS, while New England’s 25 goals allowed ranked tied-sixth. Both teams have solid midfields with two of the top players in the league in Lucas Zelarayan and Gil . They also have in-form strikers in Zardes and Bou.

Once player props are listed, surely an anytime scorer bet for any of the above would be a wise investment. Some books will also offer bets on assists, which definitely brings Zelarayan and Gil into the mix. Zelarayan has three assists in two playoff games this year, while Gil has two goals and three assists in three games this postseason.

New England marches on!

Gustavo Bou (x2) and Carles Gil help the Revolution book their first trip to a conference final in 6 years. #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/1gnBGs3kJD

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) November 29, 2020

Looking at the odds for this match from an implied probability standpoint the +125 odds give the Crew an approximate 44-percent chance to win in regulation. Whereas the +200 for the Revs is around 33-percent and the draw (+250) is 28.57-percent.

From a totals standpoint I think betting UNDER 2.5 goals is the way to go at +100. On the outrights it’s tight. The Crew at home and with the better regular season record are obviously slight favorites. The Revs certainly have upset potential though but are being given only a five-percent better chance to win compared to the odds for the draw. At the better odds, I’d bet the draw and hope this one is decided in extra-time or penalties.

Pick: Draw (+250)