2021 PGA Tour Palmetto Championship Sleepers and Longshot Picks
- The Palmetto Championship tees off Thursday (June 10th) at Congaree Golf Club, in South Carolina’s Lowcountry
- Alex Noren has racked up three top-21 finishes in his past four starts, and is fresh off a 13th place result at the Memorial
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
The PGA Tour heads back to South Carolina this week (June 10th) for the Palmetto Championship at Congaree Golf Club. This event will be a one-off to replace the Canadian Open, which has been cancelled for the second straight year due to COVID-19.
Not much is known about this course, since it’s never hosted a professional tournament, but what we do know is that it is long. Very long. Congaree can play up to 7,655 yards as a Par 71, and features multiple Par 4’s that measure north of 500 yards. In fact, the Par 4 17th can play up to 539 yards, which for reference, is longer than the Par 5 5th at Muirfield Village last week, and just 6 yards shorter than Muirfield’s Par 5 15th.
As a result, strong off the tee play, and precise long irons will go a long way in helping players compete this week, and those will be two of the factors we weigh the most when filling out our longshots and sleepers betting card.
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2021 Palmetto Championship Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Noren | +3300 | +250 | +110 |
| Luke List | +6000 | +500 | +200 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | +8500 | +500 | +250 |
| Hank Lebioda | +14000 | +1000 | +400 |
| John Pak | +17500 | +1200 | +550 |
Odds as of June 8th at DraftKings and BetMGM.
Noren Heating Up
Our first target is Alex Noren, who is in the midst of one of his best stretches of golf in quite some time. He’s reeled off three top-21 finishes in his past four starts, and is fresh off a 13th place result last week at the Memorial. His odds vary greatly depending on which online sportsbook you use, so make sure to shop around.
Noren has gained strokes with his ball striking in three straight tournaments, which is huge, because he’s already an elite short game player. Last week at Muirfield Village, he gained 5.1 strokes on and around the greens, and has gained at least 1.1 strokes combined in those two categories in six straight events.
Bump-and-run magic from Alex Noren. 👏#LiveUnderPar pic.twitter.com/a09mCeJflH
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 23, 2019
He’s not the longest player on Tour by any stretch, but he does consistently gain strokes off the tee. He ranks 24th in this field in that category over the past 24 rounds, and has gained 4.8 strokes off the tee combined in his last three starts. He also tends to play lengthy tracks quite well. In addition to his finish last week, he has a 12th place result at the Genesis this season, and finished 17th and 19th at last year’s U.S. Open and PGA Championship.
Pick: Alex Noren to Win Outright (+3300)
List’s Experience at Congaree Should Pay Off
One of the few players with experience playing Congaree Golf Club prior to this week is Luke List. In fact, as of last month, he held the course record. List’s ball striking is consistently among the best on the planet, and if he can get his short game to co-operate he’s going to be live this week.
Along with Lucas Glover, other PGA players with Congaree experience include Kevin Kisner (plays regularly), Luke List (holds the course record) and Hudson Swafford (played four weeks ago).#PalmettoChampionship pic.twitter.com/6vg8RJLb1W
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) June 8, 2021
He ranks fourth in this field in strokes gained off the tee over the past 24 rounds, and 12th on approach. He’s also an excellent long iron player, ranking sixth in proximity from 175-200 yards, where the majority of approach shots are likely to come from this week. It all depends on whether or not the putter shows up, which is why he’s a top-10 play for me, and not an outright selection.
Pick: Luke List Top-10 Finish (+500)
Top-20 Value Picks
- Rafa Cabrera Bello (+250): A former top-25 player in the world, Cabrera Bello has found his game again. He’s made three straight cuts, finishing 37th or better in each start, and has been gaining strokes in all of the key categories.
- Hank Lebioda (+400): Like Cabrera Bello, Lebioda’s game is also trending up with two top-17 results in his past three starts. An excellent iron player, Lebioda ranks second in this field in strokes gained approach over the past 24 rounds, and second in proximity from 200 yards or longer.
- John Pak (+550): The nation’s number one collegiate golfer has just one professional start on his resume, but he did parlay that into a 51st place result at last year’s U.S. Open. He’s Florida State’s all-time leader in scoring average, wins and top-10 finishes, and this week’s below average field should give him an excellent chance at not only making the cut, but finishing inside the top-20 as well.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
