2021 PGA Tour Valero Texas Open Sleepers and Longshot Picks
- The Valero Texas Open tees off Thursday (April 1st) at TPC San Antonio
- This week is the last event where the winner will get an invite to this year’s Masters if they haven’t already qualified
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
The Masters is officially on the mind of every golf fan, but before we get to Augusta, there’s one final event that needs to be played. That of course is the Valero Texas Open, which represents the last opportunity for players to qualify for the year’s first Major. The only way to get into next week’s field for golfers who haven’t qualified is by winning this week’s tournament, so plenty will be at stake for some pretty big names like Rickie Fowler for example.
Fowler checks in with lengthy +7500 odds to raise the trophy this week, but we’ll be bypassing him and starting our longshots card with Si Woo Kim.
Get these odds at DraftKings.
2021 Valero Texas Open Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds at DraftKings | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Si Woo Kim | +3500 | +350 | +188 |
| Sepp Straka | +10000 | +700 | +300 |
| Chase Seiffert | +12500 | +1100 | +400 |
Odds as of March 29th.
Kim’s Game Dialled In
The pride of South Korea checks in with outright odds of +3500, which is actually quite a bit shorter than they were when they first opened. The main reason is due to Dustin Johnson’s withdrawal on Monday, which shortened the odds of most of the top-10 favorites in the field.
Kim enters the week fresh off a 9th place finish at The Players, where he gained an incredible 8.1 strokes on approach.
Si Woo Kim already has one ace today.
He couldn’t get any closer to a second … 😲#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/VuTkQ1RsY8
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 15, 2020
The 25-year-old won earlier this season at the American Express, and can go as low as anyone on Tour when his game is on. He’s been flushing it recently, ranking fifth in this field in ball striking over the past month, and fourth in approach shots within 15 feet.
Kim held the lead at this event through 54 holes when it was last played in 2019, and I like his chances of getting his fourth PGA Tour victory this week.
Pick: Si Woo Kim to Win Outright (+3500)
Straka Sets Up Nicely
Next up, is Sepp Straka who’s fresh off a top-9 finish last week at Corales. Straka’s last trip to the state of Texas resulted in a 5th place finish at the Vivint Houston Open, and his game sets up nicely for this track. TPC San Antonio puts an extra emphasis on driving distance and ball striking, two categories the Austrian performs quite well in.
Over the past 50 rounds, he ranks 24th in ball striking and 19th in driving distance in this field. He’s gained strokes off-the-tee in seven of his past eight events, and on approach in four straight. He ranked fifth in Punta Cana last week in greens in regulation, and if he finds a hot putter look out.
That was a lot of fun, thanks for everything @FarmersInsOpen! pic.twitter.com/8OXfRNrhoE
— Sepp Straka (@seppstraka) January 28, 2019
Staka has yet to taste victory on Tour, but has racked up five top-10 finishes in the last 17 months, two of which have come in the Lone Star State.
Pick: Sepp Straka Top-10 Finish (+700)
Seiffert Sneaky Value
Last, but not least, is Chase Seiffert who represents some sneaky value this week. The 29-year-old has been flying under the radar for a while now, but has been on fire recently. He’s racked up three straight top-18 finishes, including a 3rd place result at PGA National two weeks ago.
What a fun day! I can't tell you how much having fans back means. Thank you to everyone involved with @TheHondaClassic for a great week! pic.twitter.com/r4eYvLCFP6
— Chase Seiffert (@ChaseSeiffert) March 21, 2021
He ranks first over the last 12 rounds in this field in approach shots within 15 feet, seventh in ball striking and sixth in Par-5 scoring. That last stat should come in handy, as TPC San Antonio features four Par-5’s that will need to be taken advantage of if golfers hope to crack the first couple pages on the leaderboard.
Pick: Chase Seiffert Top-20 Finish (+400)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
