Best Longshot Bets and Sleeper Picks for 2020 BMW Championship
- The top-70 players in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up Thursday at the BMW Championship, the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs
- Tyrrell Hatton gained strokes across the board at the Northern Trust, and has multiple top-four finishes since the restart
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
A week after Jim Herman backers cashed a ridiculous 500-1 ticket, the golf betting world reverted back to normal over the weekend at the Northern Trust. Dustin Johnson, who went off pre-tournament with +2000 odds to win the event, blew away the field en route to his 22nd career victory.
PGA Tour win No. 22 and a return to World No. 1. 🏆
Dustin Johnson wins the Northern Trust by 11 shots at 30-under par. pic.twitter.com/G88AkWRxoQ
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) August 23, 2020
Johnson’s win marked the sixth time since the restart the winning golfer has had pre-tournament odds between +1800 and +4000, which suggests that’s the range we should be targeting for this week’s event.
The top-70 players in the FedEx Cup Standings will tee it up at Olympia Fields Country Club on Thursday for the BMW Championship, the second of three playoff events.
2020 BMW Championship Odds
| Golfer | To Win Odds | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrrell Hatton | +3900 | +340 | +135 |
| Cameron Champ | +8500 | +700 | +260 |
| Ryan Palmer | +9000 | +750 | +290 |
Odds taken Aug. 24th.
Hatton Can Hang With the Big Boys
If Tyrrell Hatton had played the second and final round last week like he did the first and third round, he would have been challenging DJ for the title. Hatton shot 67 on Thursday, and 63 on Saturday, but followed up those great rounds with disappointing ones.
Moving day 63 for @TyrrellHatton at the Northern Trust.
Great golf Tyrrell. @PGATOUR 🔥👀 pic.twitter.com/Ttj4PXWydY
— Modest Golf (@modestgolf) August 22, 2020
He gained 3.7 strokes ball striking in the first round, and 4.7 in the third round and if that kind of performance carries over for four round this week, look out.
Fewest PGA Tour starts among players who qualified for the FedEx Cup playoffs:
12—Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson
11—Tom Lewis, Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson
10—Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay
9—
8—Adam Scott, Tyrrell Hatton
7—
6—
5—Tiger Woods— Dan Rapaport (@Daniel_Rapaport) August 18, 2020
Hatton is no stranger to winning on the big stage, as he beat an elite field at Bay Hill back in March to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s one of the best putter on Tour, and he excels with his long irons. More approach shots this week at Olympic Fields CC project to come from 175-200 yards than any other proximity range, and Hatton ranks first in the field from that distance since the restart.
Hatton has gained strokes tee-to-green in all but one event since play resumed in June, and has multiple top-four finishes in his last five starts.
Pick: Tyrrell Hatton to Win (+3900)
Champ is an Excellent Course Fit
At 7,366 yards as a Par 70, Olympic Fields CC is going to require an abundance of length off the tee, similar to TPC Harding Park, site of this year’s PGA Championship. Cameron Champ played extremely well at the year’s first major finishing 10th, and is set up for success again this week.
Of course @Cameron__Champ won the long drive contest today at @TheNTGolf… pic.twitter.com/d6i1NqeM0V
— GOLFTV (@GOLFTV) August 19, 2020
Champ ranks third in this field in driving distance since the restart and 10th in Par-4 scoring between 450-500 yards. That last stat is especially important since seven of the 12 Par-4’s this week fall in that distance. He’s gained strokes off the tee in eight straight events and is one of the few players who has history at this course. The NCAA Ilini Invitational is played at Olympic Field CC every year, and Champ took home the trophy in 2016.
Pick: Cameron Champ Top-10 Finish (+700)
Palmer a Screaming Value at His Price
When you think of Ryan Palmer, the word consistency is not something that usually comes to mind. However, over the last month he’s been just that. Palmer has finished 15th or better in three of his last four events, and his 43rd place finish at the PGA Championship was marred by one bad round.
Ryan Palmer shot four rounds of 68 or better and finished T8 in a field with the top 125 players on the PGA Tour this season.
He lost by 15.
— Kyle Porter (@KylePorterCBS) August 23, 2020
He’s gained strokes tee-to-green in each of his last four tournaments, and over a three week stretch that included the Memorial, WGC St. Jude and PGA Championship, he gained 19.8 shots on approach. He’s finished 17th or better in nine of his 18 starts this season, and with no cut to worry about, he’ll have four days to put up enough birdies to get himself inside the top-20.
Pick: Ryan Palmer Top-20 Finish (+290)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
