Best Longshot Bets and Sleeper Picks for 2020 Tour Championship
- The top-30 players in the FedExCup standings will tee it up Friday at the Tour Championship, the final event of the FedExCup Playoffs
- Webb Simpson has finished fifth or better three times since 2012 at this event
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
The top-30 golfers on the PGA Tour this season tee it up at East Lake on Friday for the Tour Championship. Dustin Johnson begins the tournament with a two-stroke lead in the race to claim the $15 million dollar first prize, but the interesting thing about this event is the different ways you can bet it.
Last three starts for @DJohnsonPGA:
T2
1st
2nd pic.twitter.com/J5m2FZScTb— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 31, 2020
In terms of the outright market, you can either wager on who will win the FedExCup, or who will finish with the lowest 72-hole score at East Lake.
2020 Tour Championship Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win FedExCup | Lowest 72-Hole Score Odds at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Webb Simpson | +1000 | +1100 |
| Daniel Berger | +2700 | +1800 |
| Billy Horschel | +21000 | +2200 |
Odds taken Sept. 1st
One of the players we’ll look to target to finish with the lowest 72-hole score is Webb Simpson, who has a strong history at this event.
Back on Bermuda
Webb has three top-five finishes at the Tour Championship since 2012. The two key stats that have had the most historical influence on finishing position at East Lake are strokes gained approach and putting, and Simpson just happens to excel at both.
Webb Simpson leads the PGA Tour in scoring average entering this week despite ranking T-108th in driving distance.
Over the last 30 years, only 1 player has led the Tour in scoring with a lower distance rank: Luke Donald in 2011 (147th).
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) August 31, 2020
In the long ball era, Webb is an outlier. He leads the Tour in scoring average despite ranking 108th in driving distance. While players like Bryson DeChambeau are bombing 400-yard drives, Simpson methodically picks apart courses, routinely hitting it inside 15 feet and knocking down most putts.
🐦🐦🐦 in 6⃣ holes.
Webb Simpson grabs the @playofffinale lead.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/FRVXDCH3wO
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 22, 2017
He’s especially effective on Bermuda Greens, just like the ones at East Lake, where he averages 0.25 strokes gained putting on the field per round. Since the restart he ranks 12th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and fifth in approach shots inside 15 feet. Both of his wins this season (Waste Management Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage) came on Bermuda greens, as did his recent third place finish at the Wyndham Championship.
Pick: Webb Simpson Lowest 72-Hole score (+1100)
Berger’s Been a Beast
One of the most consistent players since the restart has been Daniel Berger. The three-time winner on Tour has finished third or better in four of the seven events he’s played, vaulting into sixth place in the FedExCup standings. He’ll start the Tour Championship six strokes behind DJ, but of all the mid-tier betting options, he appears to have the highest ceiling.
Daniel Berger has the most Top 3 finishes since the restart: 4
Berger Top 3 finishes in PGA TOUR career:
First 136 starts: 7
Last 6 starts: 4— Fantasy Golf Pod (@fantasygolfpod) August 26, 2020
Berger has gained the most total strokes of anyone in the field since the restart, and ranks inside the top-10 in all the key metrics. He’s shot 67 or better a Tour best 16 times since play resumed in June, and has piled up at least 22 birdies in three separate tournaments. Like Webb, he’s also excelled on Bermuda greens this year, finishing third at the RBC Heritage and second at the WGC St. Jude.
Pick: Daniel Berger to win FedExCup (+2700)
Horschel is a Course Horse
Billy Horschel has arguably had more success at East Lake than any other course on the PGA Tour circuit. He’s made three starts at this event, finishing seventh or better each time. He won the Tour Championship in 2014 and finished runner-up to Tiger in 2018.
https://twitter.com/ForePlayPod/status/1295110296542023680
He ranks second in the field in total strokes gained at this event, and with the exception of the Northern Trust, he’s been striking it very well over the last two months. He’s gained at least 3.0 strokes ball striking in two of his past three events, and has put on a putting clinic in his last two tournaments on Bermuda greens. He gained 6.9 strokes putting at the Wyndham Championship, and another 3.4 at the WGC St. Jude.
Pick: Billy Horschel Lowest 72-hole score (+2200)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
