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Jon Rahm’s U.S. Open Odds Now +1100 After Winning BMW Championship

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 12:56 PM PST

Jon Rahm celebrates
Jon Rahm is one of your co-leaders headed into the 3rd round of the Masters (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)
  • Jon Rahm now has the second shortest U.S. Open odds following his win at the BMW Championship
  • Rahm drained a 66-foot putt on the first playoff hole to claim the title
  • Read below for analysis on whether or not Rahm is a good bet to win the U.S. Open at his new price

Anyone who says golf is boring clearly hasn’t been watching lately. Sunday’s final round at the BMW Championship was one of the most thrilling sporting events of the year, as Jon Rahm buried a 66-foot birdie putt on the first playoff hole to defeat Dustin Johnson.

The dramatic finish came only minutes after DJ sank a 43-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to force the playoff, keeping his hopes of a FedExCup playoffs sweep momentarily alive.

Johnson, last week’s winner at the Northern Trust, was already the favorite at the year’s second Major in three weeks at Winged Foot, and now Rahm has been priced with the second shortest odds following his epic victory.

2020 U.S. Open Odds

Golfer Current Odds at FanDuel Odds on August 23rd
Dustin Johnson +900 +900
Jon Rahm +1100 +1400
Rory McIlroy +1200 +1400
Brooks Koepka +1400 +1400
Justin Thomas +1400 +1400
Bryson DeChambeau +1400 +1400
Collin Morikawa +1800 +1600
Xander Schauffele +2000 +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2000 +2000
Webb Simpson +2700 +2700

Odds taken Aug. 30th.

Rahm’s 2020 U.S. Open odds were shortened from +1400 to +1100, which separates him from a list of stars that includes Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau. He jumps to number two in the FedExCup standings behind Johnson, which is fitting since they are the No. 1 and No. 2 players in the World Golf Rankings.

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A U.S. Open Preview

The U.S. Open may be three weeks away, but we got a four day sample this week of what to expect. Olympia Fields CC, which hosted the U.S. Open in 2003, was a brutal test that left the majority of the top-70 players on Tour wondering what went wrong. Only five players ended the tournament below par, and Marc Leishman, the 21st ranked player in the world finished at +30.

Rahm was one of those players who couldn’t get anything going after two days and was 6-over par after 36 holes. Something must have clicked during his range session on Friday evening, as he proceeded to torch the course over the final two rounds.

Rahm fired a 66 on Saturday to get within three shots of the lead, and then followed that up with a bogey-free 64 on Sunday. He made 11 birdies and just one bogey over the final two rounds, after opening the tournament with only three birdies and nine bogeys on Thursday and Friday.

The Spaniard didn’t blow away the field any statistical category, but was solid across the board. He finished inside the top-nine in strokes gained off-the-tee, approach, tee-to-green and putting, and was second in greens in regulation (70.83%)

A Major Breakthough?

That kind of consistency in the key metrics is going to be imperative for success at Winged Foot, which promises to be the most difficult test of the season. The historic track will play roughly 7,400 yards as a Par-70, with five inch rough and some of the most undulated greens players will see all season.

Tiger Woods called the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields an ideal warmup for the U.S. Open at Winged Foot, and after watching Rahm tear apart the course this weekend, it’s hard not to like him at the year’s second Major.

Rahm has been knocking on the door of his first Major victory for two plus years now, finishing fourth or better in three of his past nine Major Championship appearances. That includes a third place finish at last year’s U.S. Open, and considering he’s won at two of the most difficult courses of the season already (Olympia Fields and Muirfield Village), he seems prime for a major run at Winged Foot.

Rahm is the Real Deal

Sunday’s final round at the BMW Championship and subsequent playoff could very well be a preview of what’s in store at the U.S. Open in a few weeks. DJ and Rahm are playing the best golf of anyone on Tour right now and no one should be surprised if one of them wins the coveted Major. Of course their short odds are tough to swallow, but each of their game’s is tailor made for success at the U.S. Open.

If choosing one I’d take the longer odds with Rahm, but if you’re looking to cash a bigger ticket don’t sleep on the BMW Championship’s third place finisher. Joaquin Niemann was one of the few players to break par on Saturday and Sunday, and actually led the field this week in strokes gained tee-to-green.

The 21-year-old is an excellent ball striker and proved this week that when his putter is on he can compete with the big boys. His +10000 odds scream value and are not a true reflection of just how talented he is.

 

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