Odds and Picks to Make/Miss Cut at 2020 The Northern Trust
- The FedEx Cup playoffs begin Thursday, August 20th with the Northern Trust from TPC Boston
- Tiger Woods has finished 37th and 40th in two tournaments since the restart
- Read below for analysis and best bets to make/miss the cut this week
The FedEx Cup playoffs begin Thursday, August 20th with the Northern Trust from TPC Boston. The top-125 players on the PGA Tour this season will tee it up this week, with the top-70 in the FedEx Cup standings after the tournament’s conclusion advancing to the BMW Championship.
https://twitter.com/TheNTGolf/status/1295146734323081217
This field is obviously loaded with the best players in the world, but even the cream of the crop aren’t immune to missing cuts. Take last week at the Wyndham Championship for example; five of the top-15 names on the pre-tournament odds board failed to make the weekend, including Brooks Koepka and Justin Rose, who had the shortest and sixth shortest odds to win the event respectively.
DJ, did you hear…Brooks Koepka missed another cut. pic.twitter.com/Csfsj2OeUR
— BG (@BrianGulish) August 15, 2020
FanDuel is already out with make/miss cut props, and although the entire field isn’t available to wager on, 16 of the top players in the outright market are.
The Northern Trust Make/Miss Cut Odds
| Golfer | To Make Cut Odds | To Miss Cut Odds at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Webb Simpson | -460 | +320 |
| Tony Finau | -410 | +280 |
| Tiger Woods | -380 | +270 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -330 | +235 |
Odds taken Aug. 18th.
Without a ton of options to choose from, we’re going to have to take some stands against some very high pedigree players. Anyone can make an argument for why Tiger Woods will make the cut, but how about one for why he’ll miss.
Why Tiger May Be in Trouble
Since the restart, Woods has played in just two events, finishing 40th at the Memorial and 37th at the PGA Championship. While those results are hardly a cause for concern, the fact that he made the weekend on the number in both starts is. Woods has failed to gain strokes on the field in four of eight rounds since the restart, and has lost ground on the greens in both events.
https://twitter.com/ShooterMcGavin_/status/1291923216936710150
Also cause for concern has been Tiger’s inability to take advantage of Par-5’s. Three of the four easiest holes at TPC Boston are Par-5’s, and it is imperative that players score on them in order to finish well. However, since the restart, Tiger ranks 100 out of 125 players in Par-5 scoring. Some of that is no doubt a result of his putting woes, but his off-the-tee play and long irons have let him down as well.
Woods ranks 75th in this field in Strokes Gained off-the-tee since the restart, and 94th in proximity from 200+ yards out. That last stat is especially troubling considering that more approach shots come from beyond 200 yards at TPC Boston than any other proximity range.
Pick: Tiger Woods to Miss Cut (+270)
Tommy’s Iron Game Is in the Toilet
Over the past six times the Tour has stopped at TPC Boston (2013-2018), strokes gained approach has wound up being over twice as important as strokes gained off-the-tee to finishing position. That spells trouble for Tommy Fleetwood, who has been abysmal with his approaches lately.
Tommy Fleetwood Strokes Gained Stats – Last Two Events
| Event | T2G | OTT | APP | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyndham Championship | -5.2 | 1.7 | -6.3 | 4.8 |
| PGA | 2.2 | 3.7 | -3.4 | 2.9 |
The Englishman has lost 9.7 strokes on approach over his last two events, and the only reason he made either one of those cuts was thanks to a hot putter.
Man. That putt from Tommy Fleetwood! @PGAChampionship
— Eric Fink (@EricMillerFink) August 7, 2020
He gained 4.8 strokes on the green at the Wyndham Championship and 2.9 at the PGA Championship. Prior to these last two tournaments, Fleetwood hadn’t gained more than 2.2 strokes putting at an event in over a year. With how volatile putting can be, I’m willing to bet that he regresses on the greens in a big way this week, while he’ll need more than just a few days to fix his ball striking.
Pick: Tommy Fleetwood to Miss Cut (+235)
Webb’s Been a Gem All Season
One player who’s iron play you never have to worry about is Webb Simpson. A two-time winner on Tour this season, Simpson racked up his eighth top-10 finish this season last week at the Wyndham Championship. He gained 5 strokes on approach and another 5 with the putter, piling up 24 birdies in the process.
What a read from @WebbSimpson1 … 👏#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/pQuiQ1r96m
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 13, 2020
There are currently no warts in his game, and he ranks inside the top-15 in this field in strokes gained approach, short game and putting over his last 50 rounds. He’s won at TPC Sawgrass, which is a good corollary course to TPC Boston, and he checks all the boxes of a contender this week.
Pick: Webb Simpson to Make the Cut (-460)
Tony’s on a Terrific Run
Last but not least we have Tony Finau. Like Webb, he’s been an approach stud lately, gaining 7.6 strokes on the field at the PGA Championship, and 9.7 at the 3M Open. He’s racked up three top-eight finishes in his last four starts, and finished fourth at TPC Boston the last time an event was played here.
Not a bad day for Tony Finau so far. Birdie, par, birdie. He sits at 6-under
(via @PGATOUR)pic.twitter.com/zMzPQeT7Kh
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) July 17, 2020
He crushes Par-5’s, ranking eighth in the field since the restart, and has gained strokes tee-to-green in 19 or his past 20 measured tournaments.
Pick: Tony Finau to Make Cut (-410)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
