Kentucky Derby Odds Update After Pneumatic Wins Final Prep Race at Pegasus
- All prep races for the rescheduled September 5 Kentucky Derby are complete
- Belmont Stakes and Travers winner Tiz The Law is a very heavy favorite
- Should you make a futures wager now? Who should you wager on?
The lead up to this year’s Kentucky Derby has been unprecedented. There were prep races run as scheduled before Churchill Downs moved the event from May until September because of COVID-19, preps that shifted dates and even venues, and a plethora of new races added to bridge the four-month gap. Now all the prelims are over, and to a degree we are in the same place that we started.
Tiz The Law was one of the favorites for the Run for the Roses after winning twice last year. After his only career loss in November, there were reasonable questions. Victories in February and March cemented his status as a front runner. His primary competition was not so lucky.
Within a month several of Tiz The Law’s primary rivals got hurt. Charlatan, Nadal, and Maxfield all seemed like worthy competitors who were unable to make it to the summer preps, nevermind September. Meanwhile, horses that looked tough at various stages like Authentic and Honor A.P. showed some weakness. Newcomers, particularly Art Collector emerged.
2020 Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds at Bet365 |
|---|---|
| Tiz The Law | -150 |
| Honor A.P. | +550 |
| Art Collector | +800 |
| Authentic | +1000 |
| Swiss Skydiver | +1600 |
| Ny Traffic | +1800 |
| Dr Post | +1800 |
| Thousand Words | +2000 |
| Max Player | +2000 |
| Max Player | +2000 |
| King Guillermo | +2000 |
| Rushie | +2000 |
| Storm The Court | +2500 |
| Enforceable | +2500 |
| Kiss Today Goodbye | +2500 |
| Sole Volante | +3300 |
| Finnick The Fierce | +3300 |
| Attachment Rate | +4000 |
| Pneumatic | +4000 |
| Caracaro | +4000 |
| Jesus’ Team | +4000 |
Odds taken August 17
The Kentucky Derby odds have fluctuated throughout the year, though Tiz The Law remains consistently chalky. There is good reason to get your bets in now too.
If you like anybody other than Tiz The Law, Honor A.P. or Art Collector, wagering in futures pools will be extremely valuable should one of the favorites get sick or injured before Derby Day, which isn’t all that abnormal, and can drastically shift the odds. Even if the chalk makes it to the starting gate, locking in a price now, particularly if you might be on the “hot” horse who receives a lot of support come September 5, is worthwhile.
Let’s glance at the updated Derby odds and discuss some of the candidates.
Favorite: Tiz The Law
Already a winner of a Triple Crown race, Tiz The Law is an enormous favorite to win his second leg, and go to Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes with an opportunity to become the 14th ever Triple Crown winner. It would be perhaps the most unorthodox Triple Crown, with a win in the Belmont Stakes on June 20, followed by a September Kentucky Derby, and October Preakness. Because of the gap between races, Tiz The Law ran in and dominated this month’s Travers Stakes.
There isn’t a lot more to prove for Tiz The Law who has won at a variety of distances and tracks. He is six for seven in his career and has won four times in 2020, with none particularly tight. He will finally be facing what appears to be the top remaining healthy candidate at Churchill Downs, and perhaps at some point, his aggressive schedule will take a toll.
Top Contenders: Honor A.P. & Art Collector
How you feel about Honor A.P. in large part boils down to whether you find his excuses in the Shared Belief Stakes to be legitimate. Honor A.P. ran well twice as a juvenile, winning once after a runner up decision in his debut. After almost four months off he returned to run a good second against Authentic in the San Felipe Stakes and then turned the tables on that rival in Santa Anita Derby. So what happened at Del Mar August 1?
It is completely believable to think that Honor A.P. was using the Shared Belief as a true prep, almost a glorified workout, and wasn’t fully geared up to win. It is also possible he prefers a longer race, like the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby, to the mile-and-a-sixteenth Shared Belief. Or maybe Thousand Words has matured and is really good now. If you don’t buy any of those ideas, then Honor A.P. is a bet against in Louisville.
As for Art Collector, 2020 has been sweet. Last year he was one for five and his last race of 2019 he finished seventh. This year he is four for four and his victories in the Blue Grass Stakes and Ellis Park Derby have been impressive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aih_JZM0Suc
Though it has been a magical year for Art Collector, he has not faced Authentic, Honor A.P., Tiz The Law, or really any other legitimate Kentucky Derby candidate. His best win came when he bested one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites, Swiss Skydiver, in the Blue Grass. You can only beat who you race against, but by not facing the top horses, there is reason for question.
Other Options: Authentic, Thousand Words, Ny Traffic, Dr Post, Pneumatic
The recent past tells us that no trainer is better than Bob Baffert during the Triple Crown, and the west coast, where Baffert races the most, has top contenders. It is very reasonable to think the best horses in the spring are not the best in the fall. Thousand Words win in the Shared Belief Stakes may not have been a fluke.
Thousand Words has won four of seven races. He started his career three for three and then dropped off. Perhaps Baffert found something over the last month. If he runs like he did in February’s Robert Lewis Stakes or the Shared Belief, he can compete in Louisville.
If you like Honor A.P., and/or Thousand Words, you ought to give strong consideration to Baffert’s Authentic. He has four wins in five races and left California for the first time successfully last month in the Haskell Invitational.
His record is excellent, and his one loss, to Honor A.P., is not a major black mark. However, after The Haskell it is reasonable to wonder if Authentic prefers a shorter distance than the Kentucky Derby offers, and what about the way Ny Traffic finished the race on the Jersey Shore?
If you are going to knock Ny Traffic, it is true, he rarely wins. That said, he has run against good horses consistently and made them work and been right there. He has the ability to be on the lead, or come off the pace, and might just be working his way to a top effort when the biggest money is on the line
Two other options to consider are Dr Post and Pneumatic. They both ran behind Tiz The Law in the Belmont Stakes, but are lightly raced and could show more improvement going forward than the big favorite. Dr Post was third behind Authentic and NyTraffic in The Haskell. Pneumatic returned to the track on Saturday and won the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park easily against a somewhat weak field. Both are pricey horses with good connections who could provide value.
The Bet: Art Collector
Tiz The Law is a ridiculous price. Sure he is the most likely winner, but there is no sense in playing him at less than even money. Everyone else comes down to value and chances of winning. While Honor A.P. is a very legitimate candidate, 5/1 is no bargain. In fact, when the horses break from the gate it wouldn’t be crazy at all for Art Collector to actually be the second choice. His price is right, but so too are Authentic, NyTraffic, and several other contenders.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
