Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Predictions, Player Props & Picks for Game 3 (Oct. 10)
- Astros vs Twins Game 3 goes this afternoon at 4:07 pm ET at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN
- The Astros were better on the road this season than the Twins were at home
- See the Astros vs Twins odds, props, and picks for Tuesday’s Game 3 of the ALDS
All even at one game apiece, a pivotal Game 3 in the ALDS between the Minnesota Twins (90-76, 49-34 home) and Houston Astros (91-73, 51-30 away) goes this afternoon at Target Field in Minneapolis (4:07 pm ET).
The Astros were one of just three teams in the majors to win more than 50 games on the road during the regular season, but they will nonetheless enter Game 3 as road underdogs in the Astros vs Twins odds.
Astros vs Twins Game 3 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | +114 | +1.5 (-180) | O 8.0 (-112) |
| Minnesota Twins | -135 | -1.5 (+150) | U 8.0 (-108) |
Minnesota is a -135 moneyline favorite and +150 on the runline. Houston comes back at a +114 price to win on the road. After combining for 18 runs in the first two games of the series, the run total for Game 3 is sitting at 8.0 with the over slightly favored at -112 in the Tuesday’s MLB odds.
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The Twins’ 6-2 victory in Game 2 stopped Houston’s rapid ascent up the AL Pennant odds. The Astros had become +129 favorites after winning Game 1 of the ALDS, but dropped to +211 when Minnesota evened the series. Minnesota’s Pennant odds improved from +509 to +267, while its World Series odds shortened from +1357 to +717.
Astros vs Twins Starting Pitcher for Game 3
One of the major factors leaning in the Twins’ direction for Game 3 is the pitching matchup. Minnesota lists Sonny Gray as its starter in Tuesday’s MLB lineups. The 33-year-old righty continued the best regular season of his career in his first postseason start of 2023, going five scoreless innings in Game 2 against Toronto, scattering five hits and two walks while striking out six batters on just 86 pitches.
The Astros roll with 26-year-old Cristian Javier, who’s coming off by far the worst season of his short but otherwise solid three-plus-year career. Javier was rocking a 3.05 ERA entering 2023, but wound up with a 4.56 ERA and 4.58 FIP in 162.0 innings this year (the most he’s ever pitched in a single season).
Cristian Javier vs Sonny Gray
| 10-5 | Record | 8-8 |
| 4.56 | ERA | 2.79 |
| 4.58 | FIP | 2.83 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 23.1% | SO% | 24.3% |
Unfortunately for Gray, the Houston lineup is filled with hitters who have had their share of success against him. Jose Altuve is hatting .333 in 36 at-bats, while Michael Brantley and Alex Bregman are both hitting .300 in 20 and 10 at-bats, respectively. Notably, though, Houston hasn’t hit Gray terribly hard, with just one home run and eight doubles in 131 total at-bats.
Gray made two starts against the Astros in the regular season. In early April, he pitched a brilliant seven innings, allowing just one run on four hits with a season-high 13 Ks. In late March, he wasn’t nearly as dominant, going six innings while giving up three runs on five hits and three walks with just three strikeouts.
Javier didn’t face the Twins this season and there is very limited history between him and the hitters currently in Minnesota’s lineup. There are just 15 total at-bats against Javier among the current Twins, and they don’t have a single hit.
HOU vs MIN Game 3 Public Betting Splits
The public is pretty evenly divided when it comes to betting the winner. The Astros are getting slightly more of the moneyline action (52% of moneyline handle) in Tuesday’s MLB public betting splits. There is, however, a strong lean in the run total. As of noon on Tuesday, over 8.0 runs was getting 72% of run-total handle. Both Houston and Minnesota were among the best over teams in the regular season. Houston had an 85-75-4 O/U record while Minnesota was just behind at 84-77-5.
Astros vs Twins Game 3 Player Props
| Player | 1+ Home Run | Hits | RBIs | Pitcher Strikeouts | Outs Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | +700 | 0.5 (-235o/+170u) | 0.5 (+260o/-380u) | N/A | N/A |
| Alex Kirilloff | +550 | 0.5 (-195o/+145u) | 0.5 (+180o/-245u) | N/A | N/A |
| Carlos Correa | +340 | 0.5 (-200o/+150u) | 0.5 (+140o/-190u) | N/A | N/A |
| Chas McCormick | +650 | 0.5 (-190o/+140u) | 0.5 (+215o/-300u) | N/A | N/A |
| Edouard Julien | +600 | 0.5 (-145o/+110u) | 0.5 (+250o/-360u) | N/A | N/A |
| Jeremy Pena | +750 | 0.5 (-210o/+155u) | 0.5 (+215o/-300u) | N/A | N/A |
| Jorge Polanco | +330 | 0.5 (-175o/+130u) | 0.5 (+155o/-215u) | N/A | N/A |
| Jose Abreu | +650 | 0.5 (-225o/+165u) | 0.5 (+170o/-230u) | N/A | N/A |
| Jose Altuve | +600 | 0.5 (-235o/+170u) | 0.5 (+255o/-370u) | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Tucker | +500 | 0.5 (-215o/+160u) | 0.5 (+170o/-230u) | N/A | N/A |
| Martin Maldonado | +900 | 0.5 (+130o/-175u) | 0.5 (+360o/-575u) | N/A | N/A |
| Matt Wallner | +320 | 0.5 (-145o/+110u) | 0.5 (+170o/-230u) | N/A | N/A |
| Max Kepler | +360 | 0.5 (-235o/+170u) | 0.5 (+140o/-185u) | N/A | N/A |
| Michael Brantley | +800 | 0.5 (-245o/+180u) | 0.5 (+195o/-275u) | N/A | N/A |
| Royce Lewis | +250 | 0.5 (-215o/+160u) | 0.5 (+110o/-145u) | N/A | N/A |
| Ryan Jeffers | +450 | 0.5 (-130o/-105u) | 0.5 (+175o/-240u) | N/A | N/A |
| Willi Castro | +650 | 0.5 (-155o/+115u) | 0.5 (+210o/-295u) | N/A | N/A |
| Yordan Alvarez | +350 | 0.5 (-190o/+140u) | 0.5 (+165o/-225u) | N/A | N/A |
| Cristian Javier | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.5 (-110o/-115u) | 11.5 (-130o/+100u) |
| Sonny Gray | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.5 (-160o/+120u) | 14.5 (-135o/+120u) |
The shortest odds to both hit a home run and record an RBI belong to Minnesota rookie Royce Lewis, who is a +250 bet to hit a home and +110 to record at least one RBI in Tuesday’s MLB player props. The shortest home run odds among the Astros belong to, per usual, Yordan Alvarez at +350.
Gray has a significantly higher outs-recorded over/under than Javier (14.5 vs 11.5), but neither is favored to start the sixth inning.
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Predictions for Game 3
It’s always a little eye-popping seeing the Astros at significant plus money, and even though Gray is on the mound for the Twins, it’s not entirely warranted here. During the regular season, the Astros shoved aside the narrative that they’re only dominant at home, going 21 games over .500 in away games.
Ironically, given the age gap, Javier actually has more playoff experience than Gray (32.0 IP versus 26.1 IP), and Javier’s postseason ERA is a miniscule 2.20. Albeit in a very small sample size, Javier also has encouraging history against the Minnesota hitters.
Astros vs Twins Game 3 Picks:
- Astros moneyline (+116)
- Javier over 11.5 outs (-130)
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
