Padres’ Cronenworth Odds-On Favorite to Win NL Rookie of the Year; Dodgers’ May, Mets’ Peterson in Striking Distance
- With a third of the season left, the Padres’ Jake Cronenworth is the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year
- Just six players remain in the picture for the award
- Bryan Thiel breaks down their seasons and makes his pick to take home the hardware
When it comes to the race for the NL Rookie of the Year award, the field has been trimmed significantly.
In a normal season, there would still be plenty of names remaining on the board two-thirds of the way through the season. But in an abbreviated, COVID-19-ravaged year, most are closing in on the 40-game threshold, which leaves just 20 games to bolster ROY resumes.
In the National League, the field is looking up at the Padres’ Jake Cronenworth.
2020 NL Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds as of Aug 18 | Odds as of Sept 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (Padres) | +700 | -120 |
| Dustin May (P, Dodgers) | +350 | +175 |
| David Peterson (P, Mets) | +1600 | +600 |
| Mauricio Dubon (CF, Giants) | N/A | +1200 |
| Alec Bohm (3B, Phillies) | +4000 | +2500 |
| Sixto Sanchez (P, Marlins) | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of Sept 3rd.
For Cronenworth, it has been an astronomical rise. Looking back at the NL Rookie of the Year odds, the infielder didn’t even show up on the board until August 18th. After debuting at +700, he’s leapfrogged Dustin May into pole position.
The six names left have outlasted a number of highly-touted super-prospects. Now it’s about who can close it out in the final month.
Cronenworth Leading Candidate Among Position Players
If it wasn’t for Fernando Tatis Jr’s NL MVP bid and the Padres’ penchant for grand slams, Cronenworth would be the highlight of their year.
The Jake Cronenworth Rookie of the Year train keeps on rollin’.
(MLB x @flonase) pic.twitter.com/ioNhhlQ4p4
— MLB (@MLB) August 30, 2020
He’s spent time at all four infield positions, mostly second, while putting together the most well-rounded campaign among his rookie counterparts.
NL Rookie of the Year Offensive Comparison
| Player | Games Played | Home Runs | RBI | Runs | AVG | OBP | SLG% | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth, SD | 32 | 4 | 17 | 21 | .346 | .405 | .606 | 1.8 |
| Mauricio Dubon, SFG | 32 | 1 | 9 | 13 | .276 | .323 | .333 | 0.4 |
| Alec Bohm, PHI | 17 | 2 | 9 | 9 | .288 | .358 | .475 | 0.0 |
Cronenworth is first in pretty much every offensive category except homers, where he’s second.
The Phillies’ Bohm looks like the only real threat among position players, but he doesn’t have the longevity. That’s important in a shortened season.
This was spicy from Alec Bohm. pic.twitter.com/mnb7ruRW0f
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) September 3, 2020
For what it’s worth, Bohm would be on pace for seven homers, 32 RBI, and 32 runs scored if you stretch his numbers across 60 games.
May Hoping to Reclaim Crown
It’s almost criminal that Cronenworth and May are having their seasons simultaneously, as the division rivals have been equally dominant.
Since getting the nod in the season opener for the Dodgers, May has yet to allow more than two runs in a start. He’s had two clunkers where he only lasted 3.1 and 4.1 innings. Both saw him get pretty deep into his pitch counts, but nothing disastrous.
NL Rookie of the Year Pitching Comparison
| Player | Starts | Record | IP/Start | ERA | WHIP | K/BB | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May, LAD | 7 | 1-1 | 5.0 | 2.83 | 1.17 | 23/9 | 4.16 | 0.8 |
| David Peterson, NYM | 5 | 4-1 | 5.0 | 3.03 | 1.21 | 21/13 | 4.01 | 1.0 |
| Sixto Sanchez, MIA | 3 | 1-1 | 6.1 | 2.37 | 1.00 | 19/1 | 3.34 | 0.7 |
Sanchez, while dominant, suffers from the same problem as Brohm. The Marlins have 28 games left, which gives him six more starts. Barring an injury to May or Peterson, he may be too far behind.
New rookie rankings 😎 https://t.co/lGqvjqlV4Z pic.twitter.com/zOz49yvdtN
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) September 3, 2020
Peterson should be able to pitch well enough to keep him in the conversation, but will likely end up third behind Cronenworth and May.
West Coast Battle for NL Rookie of the Year
In narrowing the field to two, it’s clear that both have their perks.
May pitches in the biggest market, on the best team in baseball. His outstanding season helped the Dodgers navigate Walker Buehler’s slow start.
Dustin May leads all MLB rookies in IP (35) and starts (7, t-1st). He's 3rd in the NL in ERA (2.83), WHIP (1.17), and SO (23).
If you're picking a National League Rookie of the Year, this should be your guy. #Dodgers
— Clint Pasillas (@realFRG) September 1, 2020
But Cronenworth plays every day. Position players get an extra bump when it comes to individual awards, as just one pitcher has won ROY since 2015. Cronenworth’s averages are also a combination of Ichiro, Ryan Braun, and Aaron Judge’s ROY campaigns.
I am siding with May, however. The 60-game season may actually work against Cronenworth, as voters could sour on the limited sample size, leveling the playing field. And while it’s slight, May does offer the better value.
The Pick: Dustin May (+175)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
