Celtics vs Raptors Picks and Odds

• The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors matchup on Monday, January 4th
• Two Eastern Conference contenders are looking to find some rhythm after inconsistent starts
• Get the latest odds, betting preview and a pick below

The Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics meet on Monday night in a rematch of an epic second round playoff series from last season. The 1-4 Raptors are three-point favorites over the Celtics, who bested the Detroit Pistons on Sunday. Playing without Kemba Walker – the All-Star point guard remains sidelined indefinitely – the C’s are 4-3 on the young season.

Boston is on the second night of a back-to-back, while the Raptors had Sunday off following their loss to the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s been an imperfect start to the season for both teams.

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors Odds

Odds taken on Jan 4 from DraftKings

Subpar Raps

Only the tanking Pistons have a worse record than the Raptors so far. What was a defense-first team last season has become more extremely skewed. Toronto is 30th in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. They are shooting just 41.4% from the field, and three of their core players (Pascal Siakam, Norm Powell, Fred VanVleet) are below 40%. They are 21st in shots at the rim after being third in that category in 2019-20.

Siakam’s bubble struggles have carried over. Disciplinary issues saw him sit out a game. Kyle Lowry is turning it over more than he ever has in his career. Siakam’s 3.5 turnovers per game is alarmingly high for a player averaging just 3.8 assists.

While Toronto leads the league in three-point attempts (almost half of their shots are from beyond), they are taking longer threes than Nick Nurse would hope. They lead the league in non-corner three-point attempts. They face a Boston defense which has excelled at limiting corner three-point attempts. The Celtics have also used a lot of two-big line-ups to bolster their rim protection.

Breakout Jaylen Brown

There were a lot of shots available on the Celtics. Walker and Gordon Hayward took nearly 29 field goal attempts per game last season. Jaylen Brown’s role in the offense has grown in their absence, and he’s flourishing early in the season. Brown’s attempts have hiked from 15.6 to 18.9 and he’s shooting a shade under 60% on the season.

The third overall pick in the 2016 draft, Brown has shown improved feel as a playmaker and continued to improve his handle. He is far more than a three-and-D Robin to Jayson Tatum’s Batman.

Boston needed this sort of improvement from Brown without Hayward and Walker. Sustaining it for Monday’s game is key for their chances against this strong Toronto defense.

OG Anunoby will likely take the Tatum assignment, or whichever of Brown or Tatum is taking over. Brown, continuing his rise as a ball handler, shot maker and scorer makes the Celtics a much harder team to stop, even with Walker injured.

Limited Offenses

Despite owning the 10th-best offensive rating in the NBA, there’s no question this is a limited Celtics offense. It has looked clunky when Brad Stevens has run line-ups with Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson. Boston’s 10 isolations per game is joint-third in the league and a marked increase from the 7.7 last season. The efficiency is ugly, too, sitting at 0.61 points per possession after recording 0.96 in 2019-20.

Toronto’s lack of shot creation hurt them in the postseason. Those issues are still evident. Some of it is simply not making shots, but they also lost two key offensive pieces in Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Nurse will be hoping Chris Boucher can play a role on Monday after scoring 24 against the Pels.

The extra day of rest is a big factor in betting on this one. The Pistons made Boston work for their Sunday win. If Brown and Tatum are feeling even slightly fatigued from their efforts, Toronto are poised to take advantage. It might have been a poor start, but this Raptors team has been hustling and defending hard. A low-scoring Toronto win is the most likely outcome.

Pick: Toronto Raptors Moneyline (-148)