Odds to Lead 2019 NBA Finals in Points, Assists, Rebounds, 3P Field Goals, Steals & Fouls
- Game 1 of the NBA Finals takes place on Thursday night at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Steph Curry is averaging 35.8 points per game over his last five games
- Kevin Durant is out for Game 1 while DeMarcus Cousins is questionable
The 2019 NBA Finals is set to get underway on Thursday night when the Golden State Warriors visit the Toronto Raptors for Game 1. A slew of player props for the series focused on statistical categories, so let’s take a closer look and see who is the best bet for each.
Leading Scorer Odds
| Player | Playoff Average | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 27.3 | +150 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 31.2 | +200 |
| Klay Thompson | 19.1 | +400 |
| Kevin Durant | 34.2 | +700 |
| Kyle Lowry | 14.7 | +1400 |
*All odds taken 05/29/19
This is a tricky one as Kevin Durant had 91 points in the two meetings with Toronto during the regular season and he tends to feast when healthy, but he’s not right now. If he misses the first couple of games, it’ll be tough for him to catch up the rest of the series – assuming he’s back for Game 3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9F0p_Dm37nw
The smart money has to be on Steph Curry. He’s been unstoppable since Durant went down, averaging 35.8 points per game over his last five. Kawhi Leonard is an option as he will be consistent, but he’ll have some tough defensive matchups with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green draped all over him. Bet Curry.
Pick: Steph Curry (+150)
Assist Leader Odds
| Player | Playoff Average | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draymond Green | 8.2 | +150 |
| Kyle Lowry | 6.4 | +200 |
| Steph Curry | 5.6 | +275 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 3.8 | +800 |
| Klay Thompson | 2.0 | +1000 |
Interestingly enough, it’s Draymond Green (8.2) who leads all players in the 2019 NBA Playoffs in terms of assists averaged so far. Kyle Lowry leads the way for the Raptors (6.4)
Lowry is an intriguing bet as he had 12 assists in each regular season meeting between the teams. However, my concern is that his assists per game have gone down by the round, averaging 8.6 in the first round, 6.0 in the second round and 5.2 in the conference finals.
If there was a bigger payout with Lowry, I’d take a flier. Since there isn’t, I’ll take Green. He’s the safe bet.
Pick: Draymond Green (+150)
Leading Rebounder Odds
| Player | Playoff Average | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draymond Green | 9.9 | +150 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 8.8 | +225 |
| Pascal Siakam | 7.0 | +500 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 5.5 | +500 |
| Marc Gasol | 6.1 | +600 |
Green is the top rebounder on either side this posteason as he’s collecting 9.9 per game. He’s actually improved over the last two rounds as he had just 7.8 per game in the opening round but has mopped up 10.7 and 11.8 rebounds per game in the last two rounds.
We’re going to see a lot of small ball with the Warriors putting Green at center, which will force the Raptors to adjust and likely keep Marc Gasol off the floor. There should be plenty of opportunities for both Green and Leonard to lead their teams, but I’ll lean with Green, who has produced the stronger numbers so far.
Pick: Draymond Green (+150)
Leading 3-Point Shooter Odds
| Player | Playoff Average | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 4.3 | -200 |
| Klay Thompson | 2.9 | +250 |
| Kyle Lowry | 2.1 | +600 |
| Fred VanVleet | 1.2 | +1200 |
| Kevin Durant | 2.9 | +1400 |
It’s hard to see anyone other than Curry winning this category. We’re talking about a guy who averages 4.3 threes per game; Kawhi Leonard is tops in the category for the Raptors but he averaged just 1.8 makes in the last round. Kyle Lowry did hit on 3.3 threes per game in the last series but that’s still significantly behind Curry.
Fred VanVleet is an intriguing option as he’s made 14 threes in his last three games, but he was just 8-of-41 (19.5%) in the playoffs before that. He’s on the board at 12/1 but the chalk here is the smart play.
Pick: Steph Curry (-200)
Steals Leader Odds
| Player | Playoff Average | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | 1.56 | +150 |
| Draymond Green | 1.38 | +225 |
| Andre Iguodala | 1.20 | +700 |
| Marc Gasol | 1.00 | +700 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 0.5 | +700 |
Kawhi Leonard is a steals monster as evidenced by the fact that he’s averaged 1.56 per game in the playoffs – the best of anyone on either of the two teams. But he’s been even better of late, collecting 2.2 thefts per game in the conference finals. He finished the regular season seventh in this category (1.77 per game) and should have the most steals in the Finals.
Pick: Kawhi Leonard (+150)
Fouls Leader Odds
| Player | Playoff Average | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | 3.8 | +200 |
| Marc Gasol | 3.3 | +300 |
| Klay Thompson | 2.8 | +300 |
| Pascal Siakam | 3.1 | +400 |
| Draymond Green | 3.7 | +400 |
Kyle Lowry is the favorite in this category as he’s been a very aggressive defender in the playoffs. He has averaged 3.8 fouls per game, which is the most among any player remaining. However, keep in mind some of those numbers are inflated. He averaged 4.3 fouls per in the Eastern Conference Finals but averaged just 3.7 and 3.4 per game in the previous two rounds.
One might assume Draymond Green is a good bet as he’s averaged 3.7 fouls per game in the playoffs but I’ll pass there. If you look at his series versus the Houston Rockets – maybe a similar series where there’s one star to keep an eye on – he averaged just 3.3 fouls.
I’ll take a flier on Pascal Siakam as he’s going to have some challenging roles in this series. He might have to guard everyone from Kevin Durant to Draymond Green to DeMarcus Cousins, depending on the lineup.
Pick: Pascal Siakam (+400)
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
