Pelicans vs Raptors Odds and Picks

• The New Orleans Pelicans and Toronto Raptors matchup on January 2nd
• Slow start to the season has left the Raptors with ground to make up
• Get the latest odds, betting preview and a pick below

The New Orleans Pelicans and Toronto Raptors play on January 2, 2021. Toronto is 1.5-point favorites over the Pels – New Orleans has been up and down so far this season as they figure out play under Stan Van Gundy. It’s been a 1-3 start for Toronto, who got their first win of the season against the Knicks on New Year’s Eve.

The Pels are 3-2 after a comfortable win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Losses to Phoenix and Miami have shown how much work there is to do for Van Gundy, but beating the Raptors in their season opener and getting the better of the Spurs in a tight game make it a solid start to the campaign.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Toronto Raptors Odds

Odds taken on Jan 2 from FanDuel.

Pels’ Halfcourt Offense

New Orleans is the worst team in the NBA in halfcourt offense. That’s an unsurprising situation to be in given their personnel, and a lack of shooting in their starting five, but it’s still a concern for a team with playoff ambitions. Toronto are far from an ideal opponent as they work through some halfcourt problems – the Raps are second in the NBA in opponent points per possession when defending in the halfcourt.

This game is only going one way if the Raptors can force the Pelicans to play halfcourt offense. Toronto is 23rd in transition defense, though, and the Pelicans are an elite transition offense with the passing of Lonzo Ball, athleticism of Zion Williamson and driving of Eric Bledsoe. Van Gundy is a good enough coach to turn this group into a better halfcourt offense, but that’s unlikely to happen against a team as good defensively as Toronto.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WOI-jiVt04

Ranking among the best teams defensively, the Pelicans have been getting more stops than last season, but that hasn’t translated into quick buckets. They are 26th in pace. To beat this Raptors team, they are going to need to run up the floor more than they have in their previous games.

Raptors Struggle On Offense

Toronto, like New Orleans, have been dodgy on offense this season. They are a more limited offensive team without Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Sitting 29th in halfcourt points, Nick Nurse has been experiencing many of the same issues as Van Gundy.

Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet have started the season slowly. Both are shooting under 40% from the field. Losing Gasol’s passing has taken a fundamental part of their offense away. The response has been to run – they’re sixth in pace – and while that has created some good looks, it hasn’t been efficient. They are 27th in points per possession through transition.

The problems that troubled Toronto in the playoffs have been evident at the start of this season. It has been a team-wide struggle to get good shots – Nurse is dependent on OG Anunoby and Norm Powell stepping up to another level to supplement Kyle Lowry, VanVleet and Siakam.

Low Scoring Contest

These two teams are a combined 1-8 on the over. It might look a low total at 213.5, but with Toronto’s 101.5 points per game against New Orleans’ 101.6, it’s perfectly understandable. Add two elite defenses to that mix, and the under appears an obvious bet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HkUz0IiIp4

Perhaps the biggest question, though, is how Toronto will guard Williamson. Anunoby seems the best answer, and just as Toronto did with Joel Embiid, they will be ultra-aggressive trying to get the ball out of Zion’s hands.

Betting the under isn’t the most fun way to start 2021, particularly when we’re looking at a number in the low 210s. It’s where the best value lies in this game, however.

Pick: Under 213.5 total points (-110)