Warriors Odds to Win 2022 NBA Championship and Western Conference Improve as Curry Shortens to MVP Favorite Amidst 10-1 Start

• The Golden State Warriors moved to 10-1 with a win over the Timberwolves on Wednesday
• Having opened at +1100 to win the title, the Warriors are in at +850 at FanDuel on November 11th 
• Read below for more on the Warriors’ odds movement so far this season

Predictions for the Warriors in 2021-22 varied greatly. It was acknowledged that how Klay Thompson looked on his return from injury would decide their ceiling, but with numerous veteran additions and several young players on the roster, there was disagreement on where their floor was.

Some believed they might miss the playoffs. Others saw how they finished last season and tabbed them as a title contender.

With almost a month of the season in the books, the Warriors own the NBA’s best record at 10-1. Their NBA Championship odds have shortened. Steph Curry is the MVP favorite. This is all before Thompson’s return.

Golden State Warriors Futures Odds Movement

Odds as of Nov 11 at FanDuel

Favorites In the West?

The Lakers remain the Western Conference favorites at +300. Golden State is tied with the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference odds at +440. This is only a minor change from the opening odds, which reflects how open the West is. Los Angeles has been hit with numerous injuries and, to put it nicely, their performances have been up and down.

Skepticism about the Jazz as a postseason team remains, and that will be the case until they go on a deep run. Phoenix started slowly, but has gone on a six-game winning streak. The Nuggets and Clippers will not be taken seriously to come out of the West until their respective stars return. There’s a clear top four in the West right now, a group the Warriors have shown they belong in.

Nice "play" out of the timeout. Simple: have Steph run around a Looney downscreen, use his gravity to get Looney free under the rim. pic.twitter.com/a8cPVluAAu

— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) November 11, 2021

Golden State is playing the best basketball of that quartet right now. Phoenix and Utah join them in being top ten in shot quality at both ends of the floor, however, while it’s early to pass judgement on the Lakers, who have been without LeBron James for several games.

It feels pretty level between those four. The Nuggets and Clips only become a part of the discussion if Jamal Murray or Kawhi Leonard return. Dallas looks a way off despite their solid record, and the Blazers remain a very flawed team.

The cameras caught a pretty animated Steve Kerr fist pump tonight. Kerr said it came after Draymond Green told him he was pouting too much in the first half. Wanted to change his energy.

Full soundbite pic.twitter.com/KVpiMkKDVt

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) November 4, 2021

Golden State has an implied probability of 18.5% to come out of the West. That feels like good value given their performances so far and their competition in the Conference. With Klay Thompson’s return nearing, this could be the time to back Golden State. Their odds could shorten drastically if they keep anything like this form up.

Golden State’s Title Chances

Milwaukee and Brooklyn looked like the two best teams in the league heading into the season. Both have had to deal with issues early in the season with Milwaukee missing key players and the Nets playing through James Harden’s struggles. Golden State is at +850 at FanDuel, behind Milwaukee at +700. They are a way off the Nets (+260) and the Lakers (+600).

still thinking about this ngl pic.twitter.com/mwXS5yoPLS

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) November 4, 2021

Interestingly, the Warriors are a shorter price than the Jazz for the title despite sharing the same odds to come out the West. That’s partly a big market team getting a lot money on them to win it all, but it’s also an acknowledgement of this team’s ceiling. They have bucket loads of postseason experience. Their upside is huge with this roster and they could swing a big-time trade before the deadline.

Steve Kerr has reintroduced the style of play that made them a dynasty. It’s a roster of high-IQ talent, of shooters, and with more depth than last season. Notably, they are also enjoying success in the non-Steph Curry minutes, which bodes well for the rest of the regular season and the playoffs. Golden State has a +8.3 net rating with Curry on the bench – those minutes were a mess last season.

Warriors -11 in the Steph Curry minutes so far tonight, +19 in the non-Curry minutes.

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) November 4, 2021

The Warriors we’ve seen so far do not have as much elite talent as their title rivals. Their title credentials are still dependent on how good Klay Thompson is on his return. The opening weeks, though, have given some margin for error. Even if Thompson is just 80-90% of his peak performance, the Warriors are set to compete for another ring.

No other team looks positioned to assert themselves as a title contender. There’s sufficient concern about the Nets, Bucks and Lakers for the Warriors’ odds to shorten further.

Bjelica: "Golden State is one of the best organizations in the league, last 10 years they were at the top… for me it's easy to play with these guys, we're an unselfish team. We know our roles. You just wait for the game to come to you."

— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) November 6, 2021

The next two or three weeks are pivotal, however. While the Warriors lead the league in net rating and look a legitimate threat to win it all, they are bound to suffer some losses. They face the Bulls, Nets, Sixers, Clippers and the Suns (twice) before December 4. It might be worth holding off on a title bet in the hope their odds lengthen again if they drop a few games in the next three weeks.

Curry Becomes MVP Favorite

Curry was on the fringe of the MVP conversation last season despite leading the league in scoring. Team success held back Curry’s chances, and that was a concern again in 2021-22. There was, and is still considerable uncertainty over how these Warriors would cope before Klay Thompson’s return and what Thompson would look like. Their 10-1 start has seen Curry move from joint-third in preseason to the clear favorite in the NBA MVP odds.

.@StephenCurry30 was a man on a mission tonight 😤 pic.twitter.com/VhGjC4A5qq

— NBA TV (@NBATV) November 9, 2021

The 50-point gem against the Hawks improved Curry to +300, ahead of Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Curry is second in scoring to Durant. He’s fifth in box plus-minus, sixth in PER and fifth in win shares per 48 minutes. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR WAR has Curry tied third with Jimmy Butler, while he’s fifth in total RAPTOR.

Traditional and advanced statistics favor Curry. He’s the best player on the team with the best record once again. Where other perimeter All-Stars have seen their production plummet, Curry is around where we would expect.

The oldest player in NBA history with 50+ points and 10+ assists in a single game: Stephen Curry.@UAbasketball || Second Look pic.twitter.com/QhnO72K6Id

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) November 9, 2021

With the Warriors looking every bit of a top four team, there’s no question Curry is in the midst of the MVP race. This isn’t the time to back him, though. Golden State has benefitted from a relatively friendly schedule, and while there will be plenty of big nights to come from the greatest shooter ever, his odds will lengthen again at some point.

Durant, Antetokounmpo and others continue to perform. There will be better odds available for Curry in the coming weeks as Golden State’s schedule gets tougher.