Week 5 College Football Picks Against the Spread

• Week 5 of College Football features several marquee matchups on Saturday, October 2nd
• Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss travels to Alabama, while G5 powerhouse Cincinnati visits Notre Dame
• Read below for the best ATS picks for Week 5 of the college football season

The 2021 College Football season is heading into its fifth week, and there are no shortage of marquee matchups on tap for Week 5. The large slate on Saturday, October 2nd features several games with betting value.

Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss clashes with Nick Saban’s Alabama in an SEC heavyweight battle, while G5 contender Cincinnati aims to stay unbeaten at Notre Dame. Over in the Big Ten Conference, Penn State is large home favorites over Indiana.

Here are betting odds and three ATS picks to consider for Week 5.

Ole Miss vs Alabama Odds

All odds as of Sept 29th at DraftKings

Excludes MA.

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Pick #1: Rebels Cover Against Crimson Tide

It’s a battle of two undefeated SEC West teams Alabama and Ole Miss clash in Tuscaloosa during Week 5. Lane Kiffin is looking to become the first former assistant of Nick Saban’s to beat the Crimson Tide coach. Money has been pouring in on the Rebels after they opened as 16.5-point underdogs.

Ole Miss gave Alabama a great fight in a high-flying shootout last season, covering the spread in a 63-48 Tide victory. It was the Rebels’ defense that cost them the game, as the offense amassed 547 total yards of offense the Crimson Tide’s defense. The positive is Ole Miss’ defense has significantly improved, allowing only 20.7 points per game through three contests.

Oddsmakers are projecting another shootout, which plays in favor of Mississippi.  Ole Miss is leading the nation with 635.3 yards of offense per game, and QB Matt Corral is the current favorite in the Heisman odds. Corral has elite weapons all around him, including senior receivers Braylon Sanders and Dontario Drummond.

Ole Miss should keep pace with Alabama in this game and potentially pull off the upset if the defense can come up with a few big stops. Florida showed a formula for beating Alabama in Week 3 when they dominated the lines of scrimmage and outgained the Tide in total yardage. The Rebels have three rushers with at least 150 yards who will exploit a vulnerable Alabama defensive front.

• Pick: Ole Miss +14.5 (-110)

Cincinnati vs Notre Dame Odds

Pick #2: Bearcats Edge Out Irish

Cincinnati’s quest for an unbeaten season faces its biggest obstacle with a trip to South Bend in Week 5. The Bearcats are coming off a bye week and will look to catch the Fighting Irish in a letdown spot. Notre Dame took down the Wisconsin in a hard-fought game last weekend, losing QB Jack Coan to injury in the process.

Cincinnati matches up well with Notre Dame and should be able to exploit the weaknesses that have almost cost the Irish multiple games. Brian Kelly’s team gave up 264 rushing yards to FSU in Week 1 and have struggled defending the ground game. Bearcats’ Desmond Ridder is an elite dual-threat QB who is aided in the backfield  by 300-yard rusher Jerome Ford.

ʀɪᴅᴅᴇʀ ᴏɴ ᴛʜᴇ ʀɪꜱᴇ 📈 #Bearcats pic.twitter.com/13FzI6IEjS

— Cincinnati Football (@GoBearcatsFB) September 23, 2021

Cincinnati’s offense has been electric, but their defense is reason to bet them against the spread Saturday. The Bearcats rank 27th in total defense, allowing just 298.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. They should stymie a struggling Notre Dame offense that is only averaging 81 rushing yards per game and amassed just 242 total yards against Wisconsin.

Coan is expected to be the starter against Cincinnati, but he’s an immobile QB who will be playing on a bad ankle. The ex-Badger could be in for a tough day behind a weak Notre Dame offensive line that has already given up 21 sacks this season. Cincinnati has the better overall offensive weapons, and the defense should take advantage of ND’s ground game struggles to win by at least a field goal.

• Pick: Cincinnati -1.5 (-110)

Indiana vs Penn State Odds

Pick #3: Nittany Lions Beat Up Hoosiers

Penn State will look to cover the spread against an FBS opponent for the eighth consecutive game when they welcome Indiana to Beaver Stadium in Week 5. The Nittany Lions have been money-making machines during an eight-game winning streak, covering in every game except against Villanova last weekend as 29.5-point favorites.

Penn State has the elite defense to give the Hoosiers major struggles on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are allowing 15 points per game and limiting opponents to 36.8 percent conversion rate on third downs. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. is struggling behind a weak Hoosiers’ offensive line, completing only 55% of his passes and throwing six interceptions.

Indiana has really struggled against elite defenses, and they’ve just lost grad transfer receiver D.J. Matthews to a season-ending injury. The Hoosiers committed seven turnovers in their losses against Iowa and Cincinnati. Penn State, meanwhile, has won their biggest games against Wisconsin and Auburn by shutting down pass-first QB’s and creating turnovers.

This is the classic revenge game for Penn State after the Hoosiers beat the Nittany Lions by one point in 2020. James Franklin’s team has allowed just two passing TD’s and is loaded with playmakers in the defensive backfield. Look for the defense to clamp down on the struggling Penix Jr, and for PSU QB Sean Clifford to follow up a 400-yard game with another big performance.

• Pick: Penn State -12.5 (-110)