Florida vs Ole Miss Odds and Picks

• At long last, the Southeastern Conference gets underway this weekend, including a matchup between No. 5 Florida and Ole Miss on Saturday, Sept. 26th, at 12:00 pm ET
• Ole Miss is 12-11-1 all-time against Florida, but the Gators have won two of three since 2007
• Find the odds, a breakdown of the matchup and a pick for the game in the article below

At noon ET on Saturday, the SEC season begins. No. 5 Florida enters its opening weekend as the clear-cut favorite over unranked Ole Miss, but the Rebels are giving less than two touchdowns on the current moneyline.

After so much time away, is there value in betting an underdog that could keep things close, or are the Gators too powerful to pass up?

Here’s a look at the current Florida vs. Ole Miss odds:

Florida Gators vs Ole Miss Rebels Week 4 Odds

Odds as of Sept. 24th at FanDuel

Head-to-Head Matchup

Florida and Ole Miss have faced off 24 times in their history, with the Rebels holding a slight 12-11-1 edge.

But most of those matchups aren’t recent — and are therefore irrelevant.

Florida won the most recent meeting, in 2015, by a score of 38-10. But none of the current players on these teams were part of that (and even the coaches are different).

A better way to stack these teams up head-to-head is to compare their common opponents from 2019: Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU, Missouri.

Florida went 3-1 against those teams (lost to LSU), with a plus-70 point differential. Ole Miss, meanwhile, went 1-3 (win against Vanderbilt) with a minus-13 point differential.

Key Returnees

It’s easy to spot a couple of Florida’s notable losses, as running back La’Mical Perine, corner back C.J. Henderson and a trio of receivers departed for the NFL. Ole Miss, amazingly, did not have a single player drafted this past spring.

The Gators’ leader is back, though, and that’s most important. Quarterback Kyle Trask, who had 25 touchdown passes versus seven interceptions last year, is being viewed by some as a mega breakout candidate. Florida also has a stud tight end in Kyle Pitts, who should see a ton of work.

Florida #Gators QB Kyle Trask, TE Kyle Pitts voted First Team Preseason All-SEC by media.

DL Zachary Carter, DB Kaiir Elam, DB Marco Wilson on second team. LB Ventrell Miller on third team.

— OnlyGators.com: Florida Gators news (@onlygators) September 23, 2020

Ole Miss has an intriguing situation at quarterback, with a battle between John Rhys Plumlee and Matt Corral. Both are athletic, exciting and should push each other to succeed.

Both running backs and top receiver Elijah Moore return for the Rebels, too.

ATS Analysis

Last year Florida spent 10 games as a double-digit favorite. The Gators went 4-3 against the spread in that span, but failed to cover in their bowl game as 16.5-point favorites over Virginia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8LVCaTzU18

Ole Miss was a double-digit underdog four times in 2019 and covered in all four. They did not win any of those games straight up, but notably played Auburn close in a 20-14 loss as 17-point underdogs.

Kiffin Makes His Return to SEC Country

Lane Kiffin is back in the SEC, as Saturday will mark his coaching debut for Ole Miss. It’s safe to assume he’s not trying to get embarrassed.

That doesn’t mean he won’t be, of course, but consider the factors at play. He’s a smart coach, coming off an 11-3 season with Florida Atlantic, and he has an experienced and cohesive Ole Miss team to work with.

SNEAK PEEK | #TheSeason returns tomorrow night (6 PM CT)

You'll want 🔊🆙 for this one pic.twitter.com/7f581mqVwm

— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) September 22, 2020

Add in what the Rebels did last season when faced with hefty point spreads against them, and this looks like a game they can cover.

Pick: Ole Miss +13.5 (-110)