Memphis Hosts Cincinnati as 11-Point Favorites After Line Opened at -6; Home Field in AAC Title Game at Stake

• Cincinnati can clinch home field for the AAC championship game with a win
• Memphis would win the AAC West division with a victory and host the title game
• Brady White has thrown 22 touchdown passes during Memphis’ five-game winning streak

No. 17 Cincinnati visits No. 18 Memphis on Friday (3:30 p.m. ET, Nov. 29) in a pivotal American Athletic Conference game to end the regular season.

The Cincinnati vs. Memphis odds opened with the Tigers as six-point favorites, but the line quickly jumped to double digits.

#17 Cincinnati vs #18 Memphis odds

Odds taken Nov. 26.

Major Stakes in AAC & Bowl Implications

Cincinnati (10-1 overall, 7-0 in AAC) has wrapped up the East Division title and can clinch home-field advantage in the conference championship game next week with a win over Memphis.

Meanwhile the Tigers (10-1, 6-1) would reach the title game with a win and gain home-field advantage in a rematch with Cincinnati. Memphis and Navy (9-2, 6-1) are tied for first place in the AAC West but the Tigers hold the tiebreaker by virtue of its 35-23 victory over the Midshipmen on September 26th.

The latest: Mike Norvell has avoided saying the word championship as a public goal for Memphis. Not anymore after beating USF.

Memphis knows the stakes vs. Cincinnati. Win Friday, they win a 3rd AAC West title and get to host the AAC championshiphttps://t.co/gCSaGH688V

— Evan Barnes (@evan_b) November 25, 2019

Navy plays its final conference game Saturday night when it visits Houston.

SMU (9-2, 5-2) could forge a three-way tied atop the division standings if it beats Tulane on Saturday and Memphis and Navy both lose. However, Memphis also holds the tiebreaker against the Mustangs after winning the head-to-head matchup.

In that scenario, Cincinnati would host the championship game.

The AAC winner should also have a good shot at gaining the Group of Five’s spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, most likely the Cotton Bowl.

That berth goes to the highest-ranked team in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Last week, Memphis was No. 18 while Cincinnati (No. 19), Boise State (No. 20), Appalachian State (No. 24) and SMU (No. 25) were also in the Top 25.

Winning in Different Ways

Cincinnati has won nine games in a row since getting blasted 42-0 at Ohio State in Week 2. However, the Bearcats have eked out wins in three of their last four games.

They edged visiting Temple 15-13 last Saturday and notched three-point road victories over East Carolina (46-43) on Nov. 2 and South Florida (20-17) on Nov. 16 with Sam Crosa kicking the winning field goal as time expired in each game.

Cincinnati’s only easy win in the last four games was a 48-3 rout of hapless Connecticut on Nov. 9.

Memphis is on a five-game winning streak since losing at Temple 30-28 on Oct. 12. Unlike Cincinnati, the Tigers have been rolling, scoring at least 42 points during each game of the streak and averaging 47.4.

Memphis has covered in each of its last three games while Cincinnati is 1-4 against the spread its last five games.

Tale of Two Quarterbacks

Though he threw two early interceptions in last Saturday’s 49-10 win at South Florida, junior signal caller Brady White has been outstanding during Memphis’ winning streak. He is averaging 360 yards passing per game while completing 64.5 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Last week marked the first time White has thrown multiple picks this season.

Cincinnati sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder is a dual threat with his ability to pass and run. However, hampered by a sore shoulder, he has had problems throwing in recent weeks.

Riddle completed just nine of 18 passes for 78 yards against South Florida two weeks ago. Last Saturday on a cold and rainy night, he connected on just nine of 25 attempts for 62 yards with an interception.

Renewing Old Acquaintances

The teams haven’t played since 2016 and the Tigers have won the last three games in the series, covering twice, though few players on either roster were around then.

Memphis has an explosive offense, evidenced by the Tigers having 27 plays of at least 40 yards this season and 17 of 50 or more yards. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has an opportunistic defense that ranks eighth in the nation with 2.1 turnovers forced a game.

Memphis is clearly playing better than Cincinnati, though, and figures to easily dispatch the Bearcats and stay at home for the AAC championship game rematch, also at the Liberty Bowl.

The pick: Memphis -11 (-115)