Military Bowl Picks & Odds: Temple Looks to Continue ATS Winning Streak as Underdog Against UNC

• North Carolina (6-6) is seeking its first bowl win since 2013
• Temple beat two ranked opponents this year on its way to an 8-4 record
• Follow below for analysis on the matchup and betting advice

North Carolina and Temple have never played each other in football. What better time for matchup No. 1 than the Military Bowl on Friday, December 27th?

For Temple, a win would cap a five-year, 44-win stretch that solidifies the group as a force to be reckoned with in the American Athletic Conference. For North Carolina, a team that scraped its way to bowl eligibility, a win would prevent a run of three consecutive losing seasons.

Here’s a look at the North Carolina vs. Temple odds:

Temple vs. North Carolina Odds

Odds taken Dec. 18th

Recent Bowl History

To put it succinctly, bowl season has not been kind to either of these teams in recent years.

North Carolina missed out altogether the past two seasons. Before that, the Tar Heels lost bowls in three straight seasons — most recently in the 2016 Sun Bowl, when Solomon Thomas sacked Mitch Trubisky on a two-point attempt that would’ve tied the game.

When you pick your opponent's play on Tecmo Bowl… #SunBowl #Stanford #UNC pic.twitter.com/GXFo1qqDqO

— Dan Beyer (@danbeyeronfox) December 30, 2016

Temple has lost its bowl game in three of the past four years, most recently dropping the 2018 Independence Bowl in a beatdown against the Daniel Jones-led Duke Blue Devils.

Congratulations to @DukeFOOTBALL! They are the 2018 Walk-On's Independence Bowl champions! #GoDuke pic.twitter.com/vsNf0n3ijp

— Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl (@IndyBowl) December 27, 2018

Quality Wins

Between the two of them, Temple and North Carolina combined to beat two ranked opponents this year — though both of those wins belonged to the Owls. They took down Maryland (No. 21 at the time) and Memphis (No. 23 at the time, but now No. 15).

The Maryland win is extremely misleading because the Terrapins went on to a dismal 3-9 record. The Memphis win, on the other hand, was legit. The Tigers won the AAC with a 12-1 record and have moved up to No. 17 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

Of course, you could poke a hole in that win, too. Temple won 30-28, but Memphis had a questionable no-catch call go against them that would’ve put the Tigers in field goal range late.

https://twitter.com/grindcitymedia/status/1183107408748527616?s=20

Quality Losses

The term “quality loss” is really lame and shouldn’t mean much to bettors, but this might be an exception. In late September, North Carolina lost 21-20 and had a chance in the final 90 seconds to knock off the No. 1 team in the nation.

UNC goes for two annnnnnnddddddd Clemson wins their 20th straight gamepic.twitter.com/Z6pvcPwqr0

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 28, 2019

Clemson didn’t take a lead until the final 10 minutes of the game. Then North Carolina came just a few yards shy of pulling off the shock of the season.

And to be fair, all six of North Carolina’s losses were by a touchdown or fewer. And they led in five of those losses. Ah, what could have been…

ATS Analysis & Best Bet

Temple is 8-4 against the spread, including four straight ATS wins. Three of those wins came as the underdog, which is very important to be aware of.

North Carolina is 7-5 ATS but only 2-2 as a single-digit favorite.

This is a tough one to call, as it should be. North Carolina has had six games decided by four or fewer points, but the Tar Heels are riding the momentum of consecutive wins to become bowl eligible.

Temple has a better record, but was blown out in most losses, so there’s a risk that this could get out of hand if the Owls get down early. Still, their ATS record (especially of late, and as an underdog) is too impressive to overlook. Take the points with the Owls.

Pick: Temple, +4.5 (-103)