Chiefs and Ravens Sit Atop Opening AFC Championship Odds, Patriots Listed at +600

• The Kansas City Chiefs have opened as a +300 favorite to win the AFC in 2020
• The Chiefs were priced at about +450 at this time last year
• Are the Chiefs a good bet at this point or is there value with one of their AFC rivals?

The Kansas City Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions, so it’s not surprising to see that they’ve opened as the favorite to win the 2020 AFC Conference championship. The opening NFL Conference Championship odds set the Chiefs at +300, followed closely by the Baltimore Ravens at +350.

2020 AFC Championship Odds

Odds taken March 4.

Chiefs Open At +300, Ravens At +350

The Chiefs are the favorite to win the AFC and that’s no surprise. As mentioned, they’re the defending champs and also played in the 2019 AFC Championship Game. They actually opened at +450 at this time last year, so it’s not as if their 2020 odds are too far off the mark.

The Chiefs are positioned to be contenders for the foreseeable future because quarterback Patrick Mahomes is just entering his prime. It’s hard to believe, but he could get even better in 2020. He has all the tools and an offensive guru in Andy Reid at the helm. Expect consistency with both this offense and team.

Came. Saw. Conquered. pic.twitter.com/eV5yDpCLln

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) February 29, 2020

As for the Ravens, they won a league-best 14 games in 2019 and smashed all sorts of offensive records. Quarterback Lamar Jackson won the league MVP award and many people forget that he’s just 23 years old. He should continue to improve with each passing season, much like Mahomes.

The Ravens flopped in the first round of the playoffs but it was an uncharacteristically poor showing. They have a few key free agents to take care of like Matt Judon, Michael Pierce, Jimmy Smith, Tony Jefferson and Patrick Onwuasor but this team frequently reloads on defense.

With such a lethal offense, they’ll be in contention in the AFC once again.

What About The Patriots?

New England enters as a big wild card because we don’t know what quarterback Tom Brady plans to do. They were at +400 around this time last year; now they’re down at +600. If Brady returns, those odds will probably shorten. If he’s truly leaving, those odds will get longer.

https://twitter.com/SavageBoston/status/1233193216322801664

The Patriots could be offering decent value either way as Brady struggled down the stretch of the season in 2019 and he’s now 42 years old. Saving some money on his contract, acquiring someone like Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton, and then adding weapons to the offense might make this team more dangerous in 2020.

At the end of the day, it still feels like Brady will be back and the Patriots will surround him with more weapons this time around. If that’s the case and the Patriots defense returns as one of the league’s better units, this team will have plenty to say in the AFC race.

Which Teams Are Good Fliers?

If I was throwing some darts, I’d take a look at two AFC North teams: the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m personally not high on the Browns but remember at this point last year, this team had much shorter odds. They’re still very talented and maybe Kevin Stefanski – the new head coach – pushes the right buttons.

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1233214737963290625

The bet I’m more interested in making is the Steelers at +1600. This is a team that has one of the better defenses in the AFC but was clearly held back by a terrible offense. Much of those offensive struggles can be linked back to injuries as Ben Roethlisberger missed most of the season while Juju Smith-Schuster and James Conner also missed time.

If the Steelers can get Big Ben healthy, add a wide receiver in the first round and get some growth from someone like James Washington or Diontae Johnson, this could again be an effective offense. Paired with a ferocious defense that was fifth in yards and allowed and sixth in points per game, they should again be a contender.

What’s The Best Bet?

I’m not a big fan of betting the favorites at this point because I don’t see a ton of value. To me, there’s more downside risk than upside. If you believe Brady is coming back as I do, take a shot with the Patriots at +600. And if you’re looking for a longer shot, take the Steelers at +1600.