Finding Value in NFL Off-Season Futures Betting: Division Winners and Conference Champions
- Which teams look to be the best bests in the NFL conference and divisional odds for the 2023 season?
- Where is there value to be exploited in these NFL betting markets?
- See the best NFL division and conference picks for the 2023 regular season
The Detroit Lions are favored to win the NFC North, which is big news. On the other hand, the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) and Philadelphia Eagles (NFC) are favored to win their respective titles in the NFL conference odds, which is bad news for the Eagles.
Detroit hasn’t won a divisional title since 1993, when their division was still known as the NFC Central. The bad news for the Eagles is that no NFC champion has repeated since the Seattle Seahawks in 2013-14. In the Super Bowl era, the Eagles have never repeated as conference champs.
So where is the smart money going in the NFL division and conference betting markets? Which sleepers are offering some realistic underdog value?
Let’s look at that.
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NFL Division & Conference Futures Picks
The last time the Lions ruled over their domain, Bill Clinton was in the White House and there was no such things as the internet, Facebook or iPhones.
Rallying from a 1-6 start last season, Detroit ended up missing the NFL playoffs by one game. Couple that with the departure of QB Aaron Rodgers from Green Bay and it’s making the Lions the darlings of the NFC North.
Stephen A. Smith is buying into the Detroit Lions to compete in the NFC🔥
🎥: @ESPNNFL pic.twitter.com/wSUWLfCz0v
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) June 8, 2023
When it comes to Detroit, though, contradictions rule. The Lions were the NFL’s #5 scoring offense and #28 scoring defense. Detroit built an offense predicated on an explosive run game and in the offseason, discarded their top two running backs.
Nonetheless, it’s Detroit that is set as the +120 chalk to win the NFC North in the NFL divisional odds. The Lions aren’t going to be as good as everyone thinks, but they’ll be more than good enough to capture the title in the weak NFC North.
2023 NFL Conference And Divisional Picks
| Conference | Winner | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| AFC | Buffalo Bills | +475 |
| NFC | San Francisco 49ers | +350 |
| Division | Winner | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| AFC East | New York Jets | +230 |
| AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | +125 |
| AFC South | Jacksonsville Jaguars | -170 |
| AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs | -160 |
| NFC East | Dallas Cowboys | +165 |
| NFC North | Detroit Lions | +120 |
| NFC South | New Orleans Saints | +120 |
| NFC West | San Francisco 49ers | -165 |
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Change was the order of the day in the NFC last season. Three of the four division winners didn’t win the division in the previous season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the only team to repeat, but minus Tom Brady, don’t bet on a threepeat in Tampa.
Look for the New Orleans Saints (+120) to once again ascend to the top of the NFC South following a two-year absence. The addition of QB Derek Carr from the Raiders give New Orleans an element that’s been missing since Drew Brees retired.
Healthy Prescott Wins It For Dallas
There’s a trend that’s been evident in the NFC East for a few years now. When Dak Prescott is healthy, the Dallas Cowboys win the division. When Prescott is hurt, another team wins. The Cowboys are the +165 second betting choice in the NFC East odds. That’s good value if Prescott can remain off IR.
Staying with last season’s trends, the one repeat performance atop the divisions in the NFC will be in the West. The San Francisco 49ers are easily the cream of the crop among this group. The team with the NFL’s top defense is easily the the NFC’s best bet to win their division at odds of -165.
In the AFC, repeat performances are more in order. It’s hard to see any team unseating the -160 chalk the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. In the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars (-170) figure to win by default, since every other team in the division is in such disarray going into the season.
The two deepest divisions in the NFL are the AFC East and AFC North. It’s easy to make a case for three teams winning each of those groups.The Cincinnati Bengals (+125) should win a third straight AFC North title. However, the Baltimore Ravens (+275) are always tough and with QB Lamar Jackson locked up on a new contract, could be a rejuvenated bunch. Likewise, the Cleveland Browns (+380) are getting a full season of QB Deshaun Watson. They’ve also given some added beef to the defense that could free up edge Myles Garrett to finally live up to his status as one of the favorites in the NFL DPOY odds.
them: how many times have you watched this @AaronRodgers12 throw?
us: yes. pic.twitter.com/C0yZsDgMMK
— New York Jets (@nyjets) June 5, 2023
Likewise, the Buffalo Bills are the +125 pick to win their fourth AFC East title in a row. But the New York Jets are arguably the most talented team in the division and they’ve added a three-time NFL MVP at QB in Rodgers. Betting the Jets at +230 wouldn’t be a bad idea. Then again, the Miami Dolphins picked up All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey. If QB Tua Tagovailoa remains healthy, Miami at +300 is also offering good value.
AFC Conference Futures
The Chiefs have gone to five straight AFC Championship games and are the +350 chalk to win the conference this season. At some point, though, don’t the Bills finally have to get over the hump and get back to the Super Bowl?
Buffalo at +475 is an outstanding price. But so are the Jets are +900.
NFC Conference Futures
The 49ers came within a win of going to the Super Bowl a year ago, even though San Francisco utilized three different starting QBs. That’s how good the Niners defense was playing. As the +350 second betting choice to win the NFC, San Fran is a solid bet. The 49ers have played in three of the last four NFC title games.
If you want to really roll the dice on value, the Lions are at +1000. Remember at this time last year, no one was picking the Eagles to win the NFC.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
