Lamar Jackson Becomes Extremely Heavy Favorite to Win NFL MVP After Week 12

• Lamar Jackson’s MVP odds have gone from +3050 to -300
• Jackson is on pace for 44 touchdowns and over 4,800 total yards
• There’s only one other player (Russell Wilson at +300) who is inside of 12/1 in the MVP race

After another incredible effort, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is now the heavy favorite to win the NFL’s MVP. We’ve still got a quarter of the season to go, though, and Jackson has some tricky games coming up. Is he worth a bet at this point or is there value elsewhere?

2019 NFL MVP Odds

Odds taken November 26.

Jackson Builds Resume With Dominating Effort Versus Rams

Jackson’s NFL MVP odds have continued to shorten throughout the season. They were as high as +3050 on October 9th but the Ravens have gone on a seven-game winning streak culminated by a dominating effort on Monday Night Football over the Los Angeles Rams, and now Jackson is down to -300.

Jackson shredded the Rams on Monday, adding five touchdowns to his season total while leading the team to a 45-6 win. The Ravens are now on a seven-game winnings streak and have won their last five games by an average of 28.0 points per game. Over those five contests, Jackson has 17 total touchdowns and zero interceptions.

What’s winning a lot of fans and experts over is his passing as Jackson leads the league in QBR at 81.9. He’s on pace for 44 total touchdowns and 4,804 yards on a team that’s fighting for the best record in the NFL. He’s the clear-cut frontrunner as of right now and deserves to be the favorite.

MVP is a Two-Horse Race

If you take a look at the betting odds, it’s fairly clear that the oddsmakers think this is a two-horse race. Jackson is the favorite at -300, Russell Wilson is at +300 and everyone else is at +1200 or longer. Wilson is the only other place who is really in the mix here but his odds have lengthened as he’s had a couple of so-so games over the last two weeks.

Wilson has totaled just 432 passing yards over the last two weeks with just two touchdowns and two interceptions. He has cooled off a bit as he was the talk of the town following a win over Tampa Bay where he had five touchdowns and no picks. He’s clearly carrying the Seahawks but Jackson is putting up even better numbers against tougher competition.

Wilson also has a tricky schedule coming up with the Minnesota Vikings followed by road games against the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers. He’ll have to really outshine Jackson over that period of time but it seems like that’s hard to do these days.

What’s the Best Bet?

What’s most impressive about Jackson is that not only is he embarrassing opponents, he’s shredding quality teams. In the team’s last five games, he’s beaten four teams that were in the playoffs last season and three that are contenders right now. That includes the New England Patriots, who were previously undefeated.

To illustrate just how dominant this offense has been, consider that they only punted a total of four times in the month of November. While they do have a tough game with the San Francisco 49ers visiting this week, they are at home for that. After that, it should be smooth sailing with games against the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Although Jackson is down to -300, he looks like the best bet on the board. He’d have to have a really bad game this week and then one more down the line for his chances to get seriously derailed and I don’t see that happening.